This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
14 games feature Friday night, with the Mets-Cubs 2:20 ET game omitted. Weather, tentatively, looks calm.
Pitching Breakdown
Chris Sale ($12,000) leads a quadrant of five-figure priced arms, and looks like a cash game must. He'll face a Blue Jays' side that ranks 26th with a .291 wOBA against lefties, adding a meager .154 ISO. They fan only 23.6 percent of the time, which could limit his GPP potential given the high price however, though Sale has 10 of more Ks in four straight and eight of 10.
Righties Trevor Bauer ($11,100), Walker Buehler ($10,800) and Stephen Strasburg ($10,500) follow. Bauer has the softest matchup against Detroit's 29th ranked offense that carries a .282 wOBA, 74 wRC+ and 26.4 percent fan rate against righties, and he's allowed only one run in his last 16.2 innings. Prior to that, he'd been worth 21.3 DKP or fewer in five straight starts, so he isn't a slam dunk. Buehler and Stasburg have much more challenging matchups against the Rockies and Braves, respectively. Colorado's .330 wOBA isn't huge and obviously inflated by their home field, which isn't in play here. But they fan just 22.9 percent of the time. Buehler's upside may come as a likely winner with the Dodgers being heavy favorites at -175, while the game also has a low 7.5 run total. Stasburg gets a Braves' offense that has been lethal in June and fans only 21.9 percent of the time against righties. He did fan 11 over seven innings in an earlier meeting and 77 over his last 63.1 frames against Atlanta, but the familiarity of the opponent has also yielded 36 runs in that span.
Aaron Nola ($8,000) and Mike Leake ($8,700) look to have great matchups against the Marlins and Orioles, respectively. Nola is in poor form, going for 3.4 DraftKings points (DKP) or fewer in two of his last three, but Miami ranks dead last with a .281 wOBA and .112 ISO against righties, and Nola limited them to one run over 6.2 innings earlier in the year. Leake has gone for at least 16.8 DKP in four straight and faces a Baltimore side that has a .292 wOBA and .161 ISO against righties.
Griffin Canning ($8,500) is worth mentioning based on his consistent game logs. He's failed to reach 12.8 DKP just once in his last 10, working six innings in four straight and is installed as a slight road favorite over a Cardinals offense that has only a 91 wRC+ against righties.
Tanner Anderson ($6,700) is my preferred choice as a cheap second arm. He held the Rays to two runs over 5.2 innings two starts ago, and though he's only struck out eight in 11.0 innings, he's induced 21 ground balls, and the Rays have a 45.3 percent GB rate against righties, which suggests there's minimal big-play risk.
Key Chalk/Value
The slate's highest total rests with the White Sox and Rangers at 11.5, which is going to make it a very popular stack, rightfully so with Ariel Jurado ($6,500) and Reynaldo Lopez ($5,800) on the bump. Jurado was tagged for seven runs in his last start and is allowing a .385 wOBA to righties. That seems to put Jose Abreu ($4,700) and Eloy Jimenez ($4,800) in position for success, and both sport ISOs of at least .254. Lopez meanwhile has been a bit of a roller coaster game-to-game, but is allowing 2.1 HR/9 and his 6.31 ERA is supported by a 5.71 xFIP. Willie Calhoun ($4,500) has a .470 wOBA and .333 ISO against righties, albeit in just 34 at bats. Domingo Santana ($5,000) and Shin-Soo Choo ($5,000) .354/.294 and .396/.256, respectively.
Top offenses in Houston, New York (AL) and Minnesota are all in at least decent spots, and a game stack of Astros and Yankees with their 10 run total makes some sense. Yankees' starter James Paxton ($8,100) hasn't been great, and the Astros enjoy facing southpaws. Some discounted options are available here too with Jose Altuve ($3,800) and Jake Marisnick ($3,600) having success, the former owning a .457 wOBA, 197 wRC+ and .424 ISO with the latter going .444/188/.319. The Astors will trot Brad Peacock ($7,800) out to the mount, and he's allowed four runs and two homers in each of his last two starts. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,300) jumps out for his discounted price in his third game back from injury, while Aaron Judge ($5,000) is expected to be activated prior to the game.
Minnesota-Kansas City checks in with a 10-run total as well, but it's difficult to target the Royals even against a slumping Martin Perez ($7,600) because their offense is awful against southpaws, with Whit Merrifield ($5,100) having a team-best .326 wOBA against them amongst regulars. Maybe some lighter exposer here with some less proven commodities at a discount is the correct angle; Jorge Bonifacio ($3,500) and Cheslor Cuthbert ($3,600) fit the mold. Jorge Polanco ($4,600) has been the Twins' best option against righties with a .417 wOBA and .277 ISO, and isn't cost prohibitive, while Miguel Sano ($4,200) and Max Kepler ($5,000) have ISOs of .323 and .311, respectively. Mitch Garver ($5,100) left Thursday due to a heel injury, which would make Jason Castro ($3,800) and/or Willians Astudillo ($3,500) appealing if in the starting lineup.
I don't trust the Giants offense at all, but they are at least worth considering against Taylor Clarke ($6,800) and his 5.20 xFIP. Brandon Belt's ($4,000) price and power potential may be the right avenue, with very limited exposure.
Stacks
Nationals vs. Dallas Keuchel (Braves)
Anthony Rendon (3B - $5,300), Brian Dozier (2B - $3,700), Howie Kendrick (1B/3B - $4,900)
There's no telling how Keuchel will respond in his first start, but he did allow 11 hits in his final minor league tune up. The Nationals collectively rake against lefties, and this may not be a warm welcome back to the Majors for Keuchel. Rendon has a .464 wOBA, 188 wRC+ and .382 ISO against lefties, which trails Dozier's .484/201/.375 line. Kendrick goes .457/184/.276, and none of these options fan more than 21.0 percent. Yan Gomes ($2,600) profiles well with huge savings if he's starting over Kurt Suzuki ($4,000).
Diamondbacks vs. Jeff Samardzija (Giants)
Ketel Marte (2B/OF - $5,100), David Peralta (OF - $4,400), Christian Walker (1B - $4,100)
Samardzija hasn't been awful this year, but hasn't been fond of Chase Field either, allowing 32 hits in his last 32 innings there. Add in his 5.32 road xFIP, and a run total of 10 even with the Giants woeful offense, and we're expecting the D'Backs to do the heavy lifting. Marte has a team-high .375 wOBA against righties, adding a .243 ISO. Peralta isn't much behind at .374/.243 and offers a second left-handed bat here. Walker goes .354/.254, rounding out the power potential in this lineup.
Angels vs. Michael Wacha (Cardinals)
Justin Upton (OF - $4,100), Tommy La Stella (2B/3B - $4,300), David Fletcher (3B/OF - $3,800)
Wacha is always targetable, allowing five or more runs in three of his last starts and surrendering a .422 wOBA to same-handed bats. LaStella is the outlier to that, but he has a .389 wOBA and 150 wRC+ against southpaws. Fletcher offers some stability and position flexibility while carrying a .357 wOBA. Upton has homered in two of his four games since returning to action, and Wacha is allowing 2.1 HR/9. Of course, Mike Trout ($5,800) is the play where affordable, and there's little reason not to gamble on a successful return to St. Louis from Albert Pujols ($3,900) if you're looking for a feel good story.
