This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Day Two of the MLB season isn't quite as hectic. Only eight games are on the docket, all waiting until evening to get underway. Fewer games obviously leaves fewer top arms to choose from, and less room for diversification. Low totals are all over the board as we wait for hitters to catch up with pitching coming out of spring.
Pitching Overview
Arms immediately start with Gerrit Cole ($11,200), as few other teams can match that kind of talent as their No. 2 starter. Cole had a 32.0 percent strikeout rate on the road last year, posting a 3.42 xFIP.
The remainder of the top tier begins with Robbie Ray ($10,100), who feels overpriced. While he had a 32.4 percent road fan rate last year, Ray worked into the seventh inning just twice in 24 starts. The Dodgers, though, recorded only a .317 wOBA against lefties. Ray's counterpart, Ross Stripling ($9,500) is a nice pivot from Cole against a very meager D'Backs lineup that had a mere .300 wOBA against righties last year, and the Dodgers check in as the biggest favorite on the slate at -155. The next-largest favorite is the Rockies and German Marquez ($9,200), my personal favorite of upper echelon pitching Friday. Not only does he come with a nice win probability against a Marlins lineup everyone will pick on nightly, he's coming off of a breakout year that yielded 10.56 K/9, and only a 3.10 xFIP despite regular appearances in Coors Field, where he isn't here.
The bottom half doesn't present well. Charlie Morton ($8,700) faces his former squad and is the opposite side of the day's lowest total. Perhaps the best chance for value comes from a Padres-Giants matchup between Joey Lucchesi ($7,900) and Derek Holland ($6,000). Both offenses ranked in the bottom quarter in wOBA against lefties, and struck out at least 23.3 percent. Holland is always volatile, but Petco Park's cavernous dimensions can offset his 4.53 road xFIP, and his price carries little risk. Matthew Boyd ($6,600) led the Tigers in wins and strikeouts last season, and faces a Blue Jays lineup that didn't scratch Thursday after putting up a .304 OBA, .91 wRC+ and 22.4 percent fan rate in 2018.
Key Values/Chalk
With the slightly smaller slate, it certainly makes sense to build around Mike Trout ($5,700) and enjoy that stability, especially if you aren't interested in some discounted Angels (see below). Boston bats are in play against Yusei Kikuchi ($7,100), with Mookie Betts ($5,500) having posted a nearly unsustainable .488 wOBA against lefties last year, and J.D. Martinez following suit at .406.
Rookie darling Fernando Tatis Jr. ($3,900) saw his price rise $600 thanks to a 2-for-3 performance. That price jump negates some upside with little surrounding support, especially hitting in the lower third of the order, and he's already in the same price territory as Corey Seager ($4,000) and Carlos Correa ($4,100). If you aren't buying what Holland is selling on the bump, Manny Machado ($4,900) leads the way for the Padres, followed by a seemingly overpriced Wil Myers ($4,800). That price will have many shying away there, giving him low ownership GPP appeal.
No one is swinging a hotter bat out of the gates than Tim Beckham ($3,500). He went deep twice off Chris Sale yesterday, and is already 7-of-12 this year. Given his track record, it's clearly unsustainable, but worth riding until it fizzles out. High ownership is likely, but a whopping 16 other shortstops are priced higher.
Detroit/Toronto, fresh off of a 2-0, 10-inning opener, checks in with the day's highest total at nine, followed by Oakland/LAA and St. Louis/Milwaukee at 8.5. Some options that jump out are the Tigers Josh Harrison ($3,400) out of the leadoff spot and Miguel Cabrera ($3,700), who looked rejuvenated during spring. Toronto's Rowdy Tellez ($3,800) has some pop but a low contact rate. Shifting to the Cardinals, Paul DeJong ($3,400) occupied the three-hole Thursday, sandwiched between Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500) and Marcell Ozuna ($3,800), and Harrison Bader ($3,800) followed a solid spring with a homer yesterday, though he had only a .303 wOBA, 90 wRC+, .127 ISO and 31.1 percent fan rate against righties last season.
Stacks
Oakland A's vs. Matt Harvey ($6,200): Khris Davis ($4,800), Matt Chapman ($4,400), Stephen Piscotty ($4,100)
A high priced, high reward stack. These three should hit 2-3-4, have all gone yard in three games and have combined for 10 RBI. All boasted a minimum .232 ISO against righties last year, and .357 wOBA, while Halo's starter Matt Harvey fanned only 15.6 percent of righties on the road, allowing a 4.31 xFIP.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jack Flaherty ($9,000): Lorenzo Cain ($4,100), Ryan Braun ($4,200), Travis Shaw ($4,200)
The appeal comes as you get presumed 1-3-4 hitters priced 5-6-7 within the Brew Crew's lineup. Flaherty allowed 16 runs over his final 23.2 innings in 2018, and had a 4.03 road FIP. Assuming the lineup remains similar to Thursday, there's potential to surround the Brewers mashers on the cheap.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Marco Estrada ($5,800): Kole Calhoun ($3,600), Justin Bour ($3,600) Andrelton Simmons ($3,800);
After being shut out Thursday, the Angels will be chomping at the bit to face Estrada, who allowed two long-balls in his start in Japan, surrendering three runs in five frames. He sported a 5.79 xFIP last season with only a 16.4 percent K rate. Assuming Calhoun remains atop the lineup, we're buying three hitters in the 1-3-4 spots with Trout being the missing piece that can help his supporting cast produce.
