This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Generally, I don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
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Pitchers
Chris Sale, BOS at KC ($14,000) -- This is a really big number for anybody to make value, especially on the road. The circumstances with a few high-end arms available for $1,000-$3,200 less could make Sale turn up with a lower ownership rate than usual in tournaments. Even though they're on the road, the Red Sox are more heavily favored (-350) than the Astros at home against the White Sox (-300).
Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. TB ($13,000) -- deGrom has pitched at least six innings and finished with six or more strikeouts in each of his last eight starts. The Mets' run support and bullpen work after his exit has been good enough for him to earn one victory during that span. Despite those issues, if I were to spend up on one of deGrom or Sale in cash-game lineups, I'd be tempted to save the $1,000 and roll with deGrom, even though the Red Sox are -350 favorites and the Mets are sitting at -165.
Lance McCullers, HOU vs. CHW ($11,900) -- As ratios and results go, the 2018 version of McCullers is the best we've seen yet. He's still striking out more than a better per inning, and getting a significant share of his outs on the ground, while setting a new career-high in wins (9) and currently holding a career-best mark in WHIP (1.15) with an ERA (3.55) right in line with his career level (3.59). While the White Sox are only slightly below league average against right-handed pitching in terms of wRC+ (95), they have struck out at a 25.1% clip -- fifth highest in MLB this season.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE vs. OAK ($10,800) -- Even though it's his first start back from the DL, it would not be a surprise to me if Carrasco ended up with the highest ownership rate of the top-four arms on the board. It's somewhat surprising to me that Carrasco and Cleveland are not more heavily favored on the early moneyline (-190).
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. ATL ($10,200) -- The Braves continue to keep strikeouts in check -- their 20.2% K% against right-handed pitching is the sixth-lowest team split in the league -- but steering away from the Braves with pitchers in DFS isn't as necessary as you might think (95 wRC+). Through five big-league starts, Peralta has been feast or famine thus far, and in his last outing Sunday in Cincinnati, he labored through a 43-pitch first innings before rallying to get through five frames.
Dylan Bundy, BAL at MIN ($9,300) -- Like Carrasco, Bundy is making his first start back from a stint on the DL. Bundy hurt his ankle running the bases in Atlanta, but was pitching very well before the injury. Since failing to record an out during a start against the Royals in May, Bundy is 5-2 with a 60:16 K:BB over 55.1 innings, with a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP during that span. Although the Twins don't strike out at an alarming rate against righties (21.3% -- no Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton on Friday), they have quietly delivered a below average 92 wRC+ through the first half of the season.
Zack Godley, ARI vs. SD ($8,600) -- In today's installment of 'Who is pitching against the Padres tonight?' we're left to decide on a disappointing arm whose control has taken a big step in the wrong direction in 2018. I'd rather use Peralta for $200 more, but so would everybody else, so the consideration of Godley hinges on whether you want to go contrarian with one of your pitcher spots on a night were 5-6 better alternatives are on the board. I think Godley's inconsistency has placed him in the tournaments only group as an SP2, even with the favorable matchup.
Sonny Gray, NYY at TOR ($6,800) -- Another home start last time out led to another blow-up from Gray against the Red Sox over the weekend. On the road in 2018, Gray has a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Much like the home struggles of Julio Teheran a year ago, it's easy to see how Gray might be a bad fit in his home park, but the extreme nature of his struggles isn't fully explained by park factors. Thanks to the price break, it's much easier to stomach using Gray as your second pitcher than Godley by comparison.
Summary: Arguably, the first six pitchers listed (everyone through Bundy) work in cash games and tournaments, while the final two (Godley and Gray) are GPP-only considerations. German Marquez is only $5,800 on the road in Seattle for those looking at an interesting cheap arm to pair with Sale or DeGrom. I suspect pairings with one of McCullers or Carrasco with Peralta or Bundy will be frequently used by the GPP lineups seeking high upside without the top-of-the-scale prices.
Catcher
Yasmani Grandal, LAD at LAA ($3,900) -- He's not cheap, but Grandal draws Angels right-hander Deck McGuire, who has just 13 appearances in the big leagues under his belt despite being a first-round pick of the Blue Jays back in 2010. In those limited chances (including three starts), McGuire has served up eight homers in 30.1 innings while carrying an ERA north of 5.00.
Jorge Alfaro, PHI at PIT ($2,800) -- Alfaro still doesn't fit well in cash games with his free-swinging approach, but as a sub-$3K option, he offers a high ceiling thanks to his pop if he gets the nod against Trevor Williams on Friday.
First Base
Matt Adams, WAS vs. MIA ($3,700) -- It's not a bad night to pay up at first base, but if Adams gets another turn as the Nats' No. 5 hitter against Dan Straily and the Marlins on Friday night, he's on the short list of non-elite options to consider thanks to a .927 OPS against right-handed pitching since the start of last season.
Josh Bell, PIT vs. PHI ($3,400) -- Bell's drop in power since last season is more surprising than his surge to a career-high 26 long balls in his rookie campaign. Through 86 games, he's hit five homers while slugging .385, but Bell has maintained the plate discipline profile (18.0% K%, 11.4% BB%). As a switch-hitter, Bell has a lefty-righty matchup against Nick Pivetta to begin Friday's tilt with the Phillies, and Pivetta's ongoing struggle to keep the ball in the park remains his biggest flaw (1.34 HR/9).
Neil Walker, NYY at TOR ($2,900) -- Sam Gaviglio has been a nice surprise this season for the Jays, but he's still giving up plenty of homers. Walker is also eligible at second base if the Yankees give him the nod Friday with Gleyber Torres on the DL.
Second Base
Rougned Odor, TEX at DET ($3,800) -- Since getting a pair of games off in Kansas City (one of which was apparently a disciplinary matter), Odor has started to pick up the pieces and recover from a horrendous three-month stretch to begin 2018. Over the last 13 games, he's hitting .280/.368/.480 with three homers and four stolen bases. A matchup against Jordan Zimmermann and the Tigers is on tap Friday.
Jonathan Schoop, BAL at MIN ($3,300) -- With a two-homer game Thursday, Schoop's ownership rate should skyrocket against Lance Lynn and the Twins given the lack of cheap alternatives.
Ketel Marte, ARI vs. SD ($3,400) -- Marte hasn't been as aggressive on the basepaths in Arizona as he was during his time in Seattle. He's showing a slight increase in pop, however, and that was on display Thursday when he hit a late homer against Padres lefty Matt Strahm. Marte has better splits against lefties (.837 OPS) than Ozzie Albies has against righties (.797) since the start of last season. A matchup with Joey Lucchesi awaits Friday night.
Brad Miller, MIL vs. ATL ($3,500) -- Mike Foltynewicz has taken a big step forward in 2018, but my occasional willingness to pick on him lingers, and since left-handed power gets a big boost at Miller Park, Miller is a tournament consideration who offers salary relief at both middle-infield spots.
Third Base
Miguel Andujar, NYY at TOR ($3,900) -- As noted above with Neil Walker, I'm looking for ways to get an affordable bat into my lineups against Sam Gaviglio. Andujar scratches that itch while staying just below $4K for now. Andujar's splits (.840 OPS against righties) are the sixth-best at the hot corner on Friday night.
Adrian Beltre, TEX at DET ($3,800) -- Stacking the Rangers is very easy to do, to the point where it might be a chalky stack. In any case, Beltre is one of several one-off plays or mini-stack pieces to consider against Jordan Zimmermann. Beltre went 0-for-4 Thursday after a root canal was required following a tooth infection that knocked him out of Wednesday's lineup.
Colin Moran, PIT vs. PHI ($3,200) -- While I don't think Moran is a special player, I think the Pirates are correctly utilizing him on the large side of a platoon. The lineup placement could limit his appeal to tournaments, but a .279/.349/.461 line against righties since the start of 2017 is enough to make Moran one of the better values on the board against Nick Pivetta and the Phillies.
Shortstop
Elvis Andrus, TEX vs. HOU ($3,500) -- Given the lower price, I like him even more than Beltre in this matchup if you're limiting yourself to one Texas bat. It's both silly and wonderful that he's not priced up higher, because there is very little in the mid-tier worth playing on this slate.
Paul DeJong, STL at SF ($3,900) -- If DeJong is back from the DL on Friday, he draws Giants rookie Dereck Rodriguez, and while it's a pitcher-friendly environment, taking the occasional swipe with a righty who offers a lot of pop is a nice way to go in tournaments, especially if you're concerned about Elvis Andrus being too chalky.
Outfield
Marcell Ozuna, STL at SF ($3,600) -- Dereck Rodriguez starts for the Giants on Friday, and while he's done a great job of keeping the ball in the park thus far (0.73 HR/9), he was carrying a 1.97 HR/9 at Triple-A to begin the season. His baseline might be closer to the former than the latter -- especially in his home park, but this price is simply too low for a player with Ozuna's raw power.
Brett Gardner, NYY at TOR ($3,500) -- Gardner has been in a slump (8-for-41) since a sore knee knocked him out for a five-game stretch in June. Typically, at this price, he'd be an easy cash-game play, but I'm only thinking about him as a source of salary relief in the outfield for tournament purposes as he may still be playing at less than 100 percent.
Adam Jones, BAL at MIN ($3,400) -- There's not much to get excited about with Jones most days, but he continues to hold a prominent spot in the Baltimore lineup, and his price is very affordable against erratic Twins starter Lance Lynn on Friday night.
Nick Williams, PHI at PIT ($3,400) -- Williams bottomed out with a .542 season OPS back on May 5. Over the last 50 games, he's hit .255/.335/.496 with nine homers and 24 RBI, pushing Aaron Altherr into a bench role, and offering up a high-risk, high-reward option in tournaments at an affordable price throughout the past two months. He draws a hittable righty in Trevor Williams
Steven Souza, ARI vs. SD ($3,300) -- Like Gardner, Souza is a question mark from a health standpoint. He returned from a pec injury Thursday and went 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout against lefty Eric Lauer. Considering Souza has more to do with his ability to offset a more expensive piece in the lineup (mini-stacking him with A.J. Pollock might be popular given Pollock's excellent numbers against lefties) than anything else.
