This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have relatively few day games Wednesday, but there are two still split slates on DK. The first is only three games and kicks off at 2:20 pm ET. DraftKings moved its main slate start time to 6:35 pm ET and leaves us with the remaining 12 games. That will be our focus.
Pitchers
There is a trio of pitchers priced toward the top of the player pool with strikeout rates at exactly 30.2 percent on the season in Dylan Cease ($9,800), Sonny Gray ($9,400) and Tarik Skubal ($10,600). Cease's strikeout rate has slipped considerably in recent weeks, while Gray and Skubal have been steadier. Gray has a slightly friendlier matchup against Pittsburgh as compared to Skubal against the Royals. I'd lean to Gray as a result.
The rest of the upper-tier pitching market is priced aggressively, pushing into the middle range to find value. Spencer Schwellenbach ($8,400) is a good option despite some recent struggles. He draws the Reds on Wednesday, who have been a below-average lineup based on wOBA and wRC+, with a higher-than-average strikeout rate. The potential drawback is that the game will be at Great American Ball Park.
Immediately below Schwellenbach from a price perspective is Bowden Francis ($8,300). Based on his recent results, he's the best point-per-dollar play by a significant margin and a matchup against Texas isn't a reason to shy away. Before we move into punt territory, we also need to highlight DJ Herz ($7,900). Across his last five starts, only Skubal has a higher strikeout rate from the pitchers available Wednesday. The Mets have a relatively tough lineup but are likely to be without Francisco Lindor (back).
Jose Quintana ($6,500) is on the opposite end of the Nationals-Mets matchup. He remains steady and is working deep into games. That helps cover up his lower strikeout rate and also increases his chance for a win.
Top Hitters
We'll begin our hitter analysis in an unusual place, but the Marlins have an appealing matchup against Landon Knack. He's made 12 appearances in the majors this season and allowed at least one home run in nine of them. The Marlins aren't a good stacking option, but Connor Norby ($4,600) is an interesting option because he hits at the top of the order and has both power and speed.
Ryan Weathers has a positive sample in the majors this season, but he's returning from a three-month stint on the injured list (IL). He's likely to get a rude welcome from the Dodgers. Any player at the top of the lineup is a reasonable choice, but Mookie Betts ($6,000) checks in at a reasonable price relative to Shohei Ohtani ($6,800).
Value Bats
Justin Turner ($2,700) should pop onto the value radar anytime a lefty is on the mound. His .162 ISO against left-handers isn't elite, but when put in context, the price is quite appealing. Turner should also be in the middle of the Seattle lineup, anywhere between third and fifth.
Angel Martinez ($3,400) has stepped into the leadoff role for Cleveland since Steven Kwan (back) landed on the injured list. He's had double-digit DraftKings points in two of four contests since and is a value based on projected volume and team context.
Stacks to Consider
Baltimore Orioles vs. San Francisco Giants (Hayden Birdsong): Gunnar Henderson ($6,500), Cedric Mullins ($4,700), Anthony Santander ($5,700)
This is a pricy stack, but with a lot of relatively cheap pitchers, it should be reasonable to stack Baltimore. The Orioles have been a poor lineup lately, but they are still clearly talented and this is an excellent matchup for them to take advantage of. Birdsong has a 14.4 percent walk rate and has allowed 1.6 HR/9, a tantalizing combination for stacking purposes.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Jake Woodford): Masyn Winn ($3,500), Paul Goldschmidt ($3,700), Nolan Arenado ($3,600)
For those that want to pay up at pitcher and potentially also roster an elite primary stack, the Cardinals should enter the picture as a secondary consideration. Woodford isn't a viable big-league starter but will nevertheless be on the mound for Pittsburgh. Across his last 10 appearances, he has a disastrous 8.01 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. This tells us all we need to know. The problem is that the Cardinals have been a not-so-great lineup, but I'm betting on them taking advantage of the poor pitching Wednesday.
