DFS Baseball 101: Lineup Construction

It is great to be back writing DFS baseball again this year. Those who have read my articles know I usually focus on one particular strategy. But this year, I am going to look at the week in review and give you some tips based off my observations.

Lineup Construction - Hitting

Batting Order

Among the 30 major league teams, we have already seen 64 leadoff hitters in just the first week of the season. There have been seven hitters who have stayed in the leadoff role every game – Charlie Blackmon, George Springer, Whit Merrifield, Max Kepler, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Carpenter and Adam Eaton. The Blue Jays, Mets, Marlins, Angels, White Sox, Cubs and Diamondbacks have used at least three leadoff hitters.

When a player who normally does not lead off is bumped up, he becomes a huge value play, especially in cash games where you are trying to maximize the number of at-bats in your lineup. This is not factored into the players' salary, which gives you an edge.

There are a few reasons why teams would change leadoff hitters. One is the leadoff hitter is in a slump and the manager tries another hitter. Or it could be that the leadoff hitter is getting a day off or is injured. Another is the manager moves right-handed batters atop the order against a left-handed pitcher or vice versa and moves left-handed bats up against a right-handed pitcher. An example of this was Sunday where Chicago's Tim Anderson and Jose Rondon moved up in the lineup several spots against Mariners left-hander Wade LeBlanc.

The same can be said when a hitter is dropped in the lineup. This is most often done with a left-handed pitcher is on the mound and left-handed hitters are dropped in favor of right-handed hitters.

How important is the batting order? Here is the data for 2019 on DraftKings.

You can see the huge difference between taking hitters in the 1-4 spots vs. 5-9. 

Finding value in hitters that usually are in the 5-9 spots and get moved up into the 1-4 spots is a wise strategy when building daily fantasy baseball lineups.

Lefty/Righty Splits

How important is it to know the impact of the handedness/splits?

Here is the data from 2018.

You can see where there is a significant edge in taking right-handed batters against left-handed pitchers over any other matchup. The next is taking left-handed batters against right-handed pitchers, but remember the majority of pitching is right-handed (72 percent).

2018  Plate Appearance Data

vs. RHP as RHB – 70,947
vs. RHP as LHB – 61,682
vs. LHP as RHB – 38,023
vs. LHP as LHB – 14,487

There could be slates in which you can't take advantage of these splits, but if you focus on taking opposite-handed hitters who hit higher up in the lineup, you will win more of your DFS baseball contests.

Batting Order by Position

Here are the average batting orders by positions

C – 7.0
1B – 4.2
2B – 4.4
3B – 3.4
SS – 5.4
OF – 4.1

Catcher

Of course, you want to target hitters at the top of the lineup, but with a position like catcher it can be a challenge. Note the catchers that hit in the 1-5 spots, as most hit in the 7-8 spots.

Jorge Alfaro, Omar Narvaez and Francisco Cervelli are my favorite catchers to use because they hit in the 3-5 spots in the lineup on most days.

If you run into a wall, the next thing you want to look for is a right-handed hitter against a left-handed pitcher. Just be aware that you could run into a pinch-hit situation later in the game and you lose 1-2 at bats.

First Base

Most first baseman hit in the 3-4-5 spots, which are great for power and RBI opportunities. Never punt first base; if you run into a tough lineup construction, look for the cheapest hitter in the best lineup spot.

Some early season hits have been Jay Bruce, Yandy Diaz and Pete Alonso. They have been priced less than $4,000 and hit in the 1-5 spots.

Second Base

Second base can be tricky because there is huge value taking a leadoff hitter, as you get the stolen bases spike. But there is a dropoff in the second hole.

Adam Frazier and Starlin Castro have been the best targets less than $4,000 and hitting 1-5.

Third Base

Third base is like first base in that you want the preferred power spots of 3-4.

Renato Nunez and Yandy Diaz have been the best targets less than $4,000 and hitting 1-5. Diaz is first/third base eligible.

Shortstop

There is a huge edge in taking a shortstop in the 1-2 spot in the lineup. The average score in the leadoff spot is 9.1 and the second spot is 10.4. Every lineup spot after that is less than eight points per game.

Jean Segura and Jorge Polanco have been targets for me early on.

Outfield

Outfield has three positions. The speed/contact hitters are in the 1-2 spots, but also the corner outfielders are in the 3-4-5 spots, so you have to find the balance. The 2-3-4 spots have the highest average points per game. There is a big drop in average points after the fourth hole.

Adam Jones, Jorge Soler, Kole Calhoun, Steven Duggar and Trey Mancini have been the best value outfielders hitting in the 1-4 lineup spots.