This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Can We Trust the New York Yankees?
The New York Yankees are off to a solid 5-1 start to the 2024 campaign, but it is far too early in this 162-game marathon to start anointing them as an AL pennant contender. With the extra-inning, 6-5 win last night in Arizona, the Yankees have won the first two series of the 2024 season, but they are flawed.
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The game was tied at two runs each through the ninth inning. Alex Verdugo hit his first home run as a Yankee and New York led 4-2. The Yankees tacked on two more runs in the frame and led 6-2 entering the bottom of the 10th inning. Clay Holmes started the 10th inning and allowed two unearned runs, allowing the Diamondbacks to re-tie the game. The Yankee offense came through again scoring two more runs in the top of the 11th. Holmes was brought back in to start the 11th and recorded an out and allowed the third of the unearned runs on a fielding error to bring the Diamondbacks to within one run. Caleb Ferguson then got the two final outs of the game to secure the Yankee win.
This is a a potential trend that I see unfolding for the Yankees, who will score an abundance of runs, but will not have the consistent starting and relief pitching to hold on to leads or keep the team within striking distance for a come-from-behind win. The Yankees will be overpriced in their next several series that start Friday at Yankee Stadium with a three-game series against their divisional AL East rival Toronto Blue Jays.
MLB Picks for Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets, Game 2
The Tigers and the Mets will play a doubleheader on Thursday after getting rained out Wednesday. The second game of this doubleheader has the Mets priced as a -120 moneyline favorite with a posted total of 7.5 runs. In early betting action for this game, 60% of the tickets and handle are on the Tigers.
Who is Detroit's Matt Manning?
The Tigers will send to the hill right-hander Matt Manning, who is 11-14 in 45 career starts since his debut in June of the 2021 season. He was drafted ninth overall by the Tigers in the 2016 amateur draft out of Sheldon High School in Sacramento, CA. He is a lanky 6-6 weighing in at just under 200 pounds, but has a great arm.
He is a traditional fastball/slider pitcher throwing a fastball about 50 percent of the time and a slider about 32 percent of the time. He will mix in a change that averages a spin rate of 1,442 RPM when facing left-handed batters. That changeup has late dropping motion that generates weakly hit ground balls or whiffs. He has a terrific arm-side run on his fastball that jams right-handed batters creating easy outs. I believe he will complete at least 5 innings of work in this game and earn the win.
The Mets have not announced their starter and this simply reflects the lack of starting pitching depth the Mets have entering this season. The starter who is expected to be at least penciled into the lineup is Jose Butto, who will be called up from the Syracuse Mets and has limited MLB experience.
The Situational Trends Supporting the Tigers in Game 2
The following situational trends support this betting opportunity on the Tigers.
· Mets are just 7-27 losing 26 units per unit wagered when facing an AL team that is batting .260 or lower in games played over the past two seasons.
· Mets are 2-14 losing 14 units per unit wagered when facing a team from the AL Central spanning the past two seasons.
· Mets are 12-36 losing 32 units per unit wagered in inter-league games.
MLB Picks for Guardians vs Twins
The betting markets have the 5-2 Guardians priced as a +135 underdogs at BetMGM when they face the 3-2 Twins on Thursday afternoon starting at 4:10 PM EST. The total is priced at 7.5 runs at DraftKings.
MLB Betting Algorithm Supporting the Guardians
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 59-26 record for 69% winning bets that have averaged a -135 favorite and earned 22.78 units per unit wagered over the past five seasons. The requirements are:
· Bet on any AL teams scoring 5.4 or more RPG.
· That team's defense has allowed two or fewer runs in each of their two previous games.
· That team is facing a foe that has a solid bullpen posting a 3.75 or lower ERA.
If the game occurs in the first 20 games of the season, these teams have produced a highly profitable 17-7 record for 71% winning bets averaging a -140 wager and earning a stellar 178% ROI over the past five seasons. In addition, if they are priced as the underdog they have gone 5-0!
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
· Bet the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 over the NY Mets as an 8-Unit Best Bet
