Collette Calls: Pitcher Workloads Revisted

I wrote my first piece about pitcher workload concerns in mid-May. I firmly believe it is time to revisit the piece after a particular quote from Brewers manager Craig Counsell a few days ago as we need to be a proactive as possible about managing our pitching staffs the final third of the fantasy season.

Freddy Peralta was cruising against the White Sox on Saturday night, scattering three baserunners over four innings while striking out five on 51 pitches. Fantasy leaguers were yearning for Peralta's eighth win as he continues his stellar season, but Peralta did not take the mound in the fifth as Adrian Houser came in to work the next two innings and earned his sixth win of the season. After the game, Counsell had this to say to reporters:

"I think we'll probably split up a start again, still kind of working through an exact day on it, but we'll do it again, not with Freddy, with someone else. ... When you have two off days in a week and I've got six starters, we're going to have to make some adjustments there. This is what we've done, and it's allowed us to give those guys a little bit of a break."

Peralta has thrown 102 innings this season, nearly quadruple what he did as a reliever in 2020 and 17 more than he threw as a swingman in 2019. Milwaukee clearly has October plans given its position in the standings and the trade rumors that continue to swirl around the team. Should the team go deep into October, it is conceivable that Peralta could get to 160 innings by the time it is all over. At age 25, it is absolutely unchartered territory for young arms to pick up such a heavy workload increase year over year, so kudos to Counsell and Milwaukee for taking a chance in the schedule to afford their young hurler some kind of break while allowing one of their backend starters to somewhat stay on schedule and not get skipped in the rotation. Besides, they'll likely need to see how comfortable Houser is working out of the bullpen as that is his likely role come October.

What if Counsell and Milwaukee are not the only team that does this the rest of the way?

As play begins on July 27, there are 293 pitchers on the injured list across the league, with several playoff contending teams impacted:

Milwaukee is in the middle of the pack on that list with eight injuries, but the top four teams and five of the top eight teams have playoff implications. Before the pandemic, this situation would have been addressed by massively expanded rosters where teams would use nearly every pitcher at their disposal on the 40-man roster to get aligned for the postseason. The new rules say teams can only expand to 28 players starting Sept. 1, so a team could add two more pitchers but some teams decide on utilizing a third catcher or a designated runner type role for strategic stolen bases. The point is that those managers concerned about pitcher workloads will need to get creative as Counsell did this past week to manage workloads because September rosters will only offer so much relief to clubs.

The piece in early May had a chart showing the percentage of games each season in which pitchers threw 100 or more pitches. At that time, 11 percent of outings by pitchers met that qualification, but the table below has been updated:

The average number of innings pitched per game started as well as the average number of pitches per start did not change, but the percentage of outings involving 100 or more pitches has increased by nearly one-third. It is still below the level of previous full seasons while it has surpassed what we saw in 2020 with 28- to 30-man rosters in play. 

The earlier article also included a chart showing which clubs had been the most aggressive in pushing their starting pitchers with Cleveland, Oakland and Philadelphia leading the way in heavy workloads early in the season. Cleveland has since lost Shane Bieber to shoulder woes, Aaron Civale to finger troubles and Zach Plesac to a broken thumb incurred while aggressively ripping off his jersey after a bad outing. Oakland has held up well only losing Mike Fiers to actual injury while four of their starters have each worked more than 110 innings this season as manager Bob Melvin attempts to mimic the efforts of the 1980 Oakland A's staff. Below is an update to that table showing each team's overall percentage of games involving 100 or more pitches compared to the earlier efforts in season:

Cleveland has declined, but that was to be expected once it lost its top three starters. Oakland and Philadelphia has seen only a slight decrease while other playoff contenders such as Houston, San Francisco, Boston, Seattle (??!!), Tampa Bay and San Diego have mostly kept things in check. However, notice the large increases in big workload games in Milwaukee, both Los Angeles clubs, and in particular, the south side Chicago club. We'll start with the White Sox.

All five members of the Chicago rotation have already eclipsed 100 innings this season; the only club in MLB to accomplish such a feat to date. 

You likely are not, and should not, be too concerned with the front two in the rotation, but the back end should give you pause. Keuchel had 2019 lessened by his contract situation, Cease is young and the club should have a long-term vision for him, which Rodon has pitched amazing baseball this year while navigating unchartered waters. The White Sox do not exactly have a Ready 5 pitcher sitting in Charlotte to come up and save the day should one of these guys go down, and I would be surprised if they just gave the spot to Michael Kopech and have him continue the vacated workload. 

The best-case scenario is the club has a large enough lead in September so it can call up the likes of Reynaldo Lopez or Jimmy Lambert or Jonathan Stiever and have them soak up some innings down the stretch. Yes, the team is getting ready to have its offense nearly fully loaded for the first time all year with the return of Eloy Jimenez and the imminent return of Luis Robert and Yasmani Grandal back in a few weeks, but they will only go as far as their pitching staff takes them in October. They need three of these guys to make it to the finish line, but manager Tony LaRussa can't burn out the staff at this pace for too much longer. The club has an 8.5 game lead on Cleveland, and Cleveland is likely in sell mode. 

Manager Dave Roberts and the Dodgers had their hands forced when Clayton Kershaw went on the disabled list with a sore forearm along with the issues of Trevor Bauer. One of those guys is likely to return to the roster to contribute while the other may have very well thrown his last pitch in a Dodger uniform, and perhaps a major league uniform. The Angels are hanging around in the periphery of the race, but they need a big week this week to determine their future. Shohei Ohtani got them off to a great start with a 99-pitch outing Monday over seven innings to defeat the Rockies, but did he really need to go 99 pitches against a team that is something like 3-36 on the road this year? 

Milwaukee has had Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes each exceed 100 innings while Adrian Houser is only a start or two from getting there on his own. The success of the Brewers in 2021 is anchored in that amazing trio of pitchers as their offense, on the whole, has been disappointing. The club needs to do all it can to ensure those three horses are ready for the postseason and that it can get Devin Williams back in good shape for the bullpen down the stretch. The club has already dealt away J.P. Feyereisen, Drew Rasmussen and Trevor Richards out of their bullpen depth chart, so pickings are slim for relief. Aaron Ashby would make the most logical choice for the club as he is starting in Nashville and is on the 40-man roster. He has made one rather forgettable appearance this year on the big league club, but I would look for him to get some September work.

Simply put, add some pitching depth to your reserve rosters in your league because Milwaukee will not be, or should not be, the only team to start taking advantage of the schedule or standings to get some guys some rest. Both Central Divisions are in near blow-out situations, so if your pitching fortunes are built upon White Sox or Brewer hurlers, use the coming FAAB periods to stock up on backup plans for September.