Collette Calls: My AL Tout Wars Review

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

My apologies for the slight delay in getting this recap posted, but travel delays coming home from New York and an immediate business trip once I returned left me little time to sit down and put my thoughts to paper. I actually preferred the 47,631 steps I took in New York City over the weekend compared to the drive to and from Fayetteville, NC this week. By the way, that step count isn't an exaggeration; I looked it up on my Apple Watch. I walked from the Sunday draft location at 77th and Broadway and beat Jeff Erickson and Todd Zola to lunch by 15 minutes, and they got into a cab shortly after I left the Belleclaire Hotel on foot. What can I say? I love walking around the city when the weather is cooperating, but next time, I'll look to lighten my load, as my backpack had my entire weekend in it. 

The weekend is always the highlight of draft season, because it affords me the opportunity to see so many friends in the industry as well as some who now have more focus on the real baseball side of operations. I was able to have some lunch with Cory Schwartz and see Alex Fast at the MLB offices in Midtown before the first round of festivities Friday evening with some other touts and friends. In my younger days, that first night rarely ended before 3 am, but I'm 12 years older than Mike Gundy was when he declared he was a man, so I retired to bed at 10:30 because I was already functioning on four hours of terrible sleep of my own doing. After all, nobody forced me to book a 6 am flight on Friday, and I don't know about you, but I never sleep well when I have such an early flight because of the one time I nearly overslept for an important flight. 

I finalized my budget for AL Tout Wars before going to bed, as I like to come up with a budget by roster spot to keep me honest at the auction table. The mono leagues in Tout Wars are a bit different from standard leagues because we've tweaked the roster construction by dumping the MI and CI positions for one middle infield position, and trimmed one outfield position as well. The two trimmed traditional spots are instead allocated to swing roles that could be either hitters or pitchers. It was around those rules that I created the following budget:

• Catchers: $30
• Corners: $22
• Middle: $30
• Outfield: $65
• IF/UT/SW/SW: $20
• Starting pitching: $56
• Relief pitching: $32

That is how I decided to allocate a budget that had an overall 66/34 split between hitting and pitching. I then took those guidelines and put players I have valued in those ranges and told myself I will take the first one which comes at the price while also allowing myself the flexibility of spending an extra dollar if need be to avoid getting stuck chasing the last player in the group later. 

Catchers: Budgeted $30, spent $22

My initial plan was to buy one of Cal Raleigh, Salvador Perez, Logan O'Hoppe, or Yainer Diaz and then pair them up with someone like Shea Langeliers or Ryan Jeffers. I was able to get O'Hoppe at $19 after not being willing to go $20 on Perez but then watched Jeff Erickson get Diaz for $2 cheaper just two spots later. I did try to get Jeffers or Langeliers, but both went for $15, so I shifted the money around and jumped on Victor Caratini later viewing him as the best of the second catchers in the league. The only catching bargain to be had, by my numbers, was Rob Leibowitz's purchase of Adley Rutschman at $22, which was $3 below my valued price but several dollars above what I had budgeted for the position. Every other catcher went $0-$4 above my projections for the position, which was a signal of things to come in the auction where the league as a whole spent 69% of the dollars on hitting. I like O'Hoppe hitting in the middle of the Angels lineup and repeating last season's 20 homer season, but I would have much rather had Diaz at that same price or potentially $1 cheaper. 

Corners: Budgeted $22, spent $31

This was where I sent the $8 I could not spend in plan at catching. Pasquantino became a target with the adjusted budget and how I was able to get him $2 below my valuation for him. He is well-insulated in the Kansas City lineup and should help plenty with run production. Moore was always a target because he qualifies at four positions and we know Dan Wilson loves to run with the Mariners. The challenge with Moore is he's not having a good spring, with 10 strikeouts in 36 at-bats, though he is a perfect 3-for-3 in steals. Ryan Bliss is out-hitting him and could earn that starting role at second base to begin the season. In hindsight, I wish I hadn't gone where I did with Moore, but the speed and flexibility were too much to pass up. He was downright horrendous at home last season (.144/.269/.234), so a trade anywhere else would help me feel better about drafting my fellow UCF Knight. 

Middle Infield: Budgeted $30, spent $29

This was one of those areas where the inflated hitting prices across the board came into play. I do not recall who I got into the Gelof chase with, but he was the last player up the middle with the combination or power and speed I wanted, so a price was paid. Watching Jonathan India go $4 below my projected value three nominations later did not feel good. It is my hope that Crawford's .304 OBP last season, the lowest of his career, is the outlier and not the new norm. Crawford was a selection driven by cost, as the rest of the players I considered for that role went above where I was budgeting including Willi Castro ($14) and Jeremy Pena ($17). 

Outfield: Budgeted $65, spent $72

Soler and Wallner were primary targets here for their power profile and upside, but I left the rest of this group up to where I could find guys at the right price. Landing one of the best OBP options in the AL in this OBP format as well as the four-category production Meadows offers helped make for a MUCH better outfield than what I managed in AL LABR two weeks prior. This was my primary goal for this draft: not repeating the same mistake I made in AL LABR. I admittedly paid the price elsewhere, but at least it's not in the same position with the potential to ruin both leagues for me. 

Others: Budgeted $20, spent $19

This was all about hot names in spring and their upside. Smith has been the talk of the camp for Houston, hitting .419/.500/.871 with four homers so far. Simpson has been flying around the bases for Tampa Bay and playing improved defense and making it extremely difficult for Tampa Bay to send him down. His speed is gamechanging and his ability to actually make contact and force the defense to make the play in 3.5 seconds separates him from the lazy comp to Billy Hamilton. Simply put, this is a guy with an 8.7 percent strikeout rate for his minor-league career who has always faced pitchers not concerned with him hitting the ball far. Between college and the minors since 2019, he has a 7.7 percent strikeout rate and has stolen 340 bases in 394 attempts. Rice showed some interesting hard contact last season and there is talk of him picking up catcher eligibility in-season. For now, he should strong side platoon at DH with upside. Roden is someone I also drafted in LABR, and his value is higher in Tout's OBP format. 

Starters: Budgeted $56, spent $56

Unlike AL LABR, I wanted one ace here, and I took the first one that was nominated who fit my budget. The first two nominations were Jackson Jobe ($4) and then Tarik Skubal ($34). Skubal was a fair price so I pushed him up, but I wanted to stay close to my $28 as possible. Crochet came up as the eighth nomination and I was able to get into the odd-valued swim lane and get him where I valued him. I would not have gone $29, but once again, I saw the other pitchers I had bucketed for this position end up going lower:

I told myself before the draft I would jump in on Kirby as long as the price stayed at $15 or lower, because I was comfortable enough with his upside to allow him to miss a month. He is staying in Arizona to continue his work and the club is targeting him pitching toward the end of April. I will look to use his spot for streaming starters until he returns. Francis and Rocker were both values on my board that I jumped on, particularly Rocker with the news Jon Gray (wrist) and Cody Bradford (elbow) are down with injuries. I had halved Gray's projections that morning and bumped up both Rocker and Jack Leiter's numbers. Morton was acquired for his team context and, hopefully, some volume. I would have acquired someone with more upside than Spence, but I was none the richer at that point in the auction. Between Spence and Osvaldo Bido in the reserves, I figure I have a starting pitcher with some upside as long as Sutter Park does not turn into the Great American Smallpark of the west. 

Relievers: Budgeted $32, spent $31

This was simple: I wanted one frontline closer, a bottom-tier one and a middle reliever with upside. I took the second closer nominated in Hader and then continued to throw closers out for most of my other nominations recognizing they were all going full value:

Varland was always destined to be a reliever whether he and the Twins knew it or not. His fastball averaged 95.5 mph as a starter, but he finished the season averaging 97.1 mph out of the pen while touching 100 and had greater than 30 percent whiff rates on his four-seamer and slider. Most of the attention on Minnesota's non-closing relievers rightfully goes to Griffin Jax, but do not sleep on Varland's upside. We know Rocco Baldelli is anything but consistent with his bullpen usage and Varland could be a sneaky play in that chaos, vulturing wins while putting up the strikeouts. Perhaps the move to the pen with the increased velocity could also help cut into his gopheritis, which booted him from the rotation.

Reserves

Mead has done everything asked of him in camp and is hitting .576/.641/.697 as I compose this article. The challenge is he has the curse of options, while the likes of Christopher Morel does not. Morel is hitting .222/.243/.361 in camp with 14 strikeouts in 37 plate appearances, but he is a lock to make the club since he's out of options unless the team finds a trade partner for his infrequent hard contact. Miami would be a perfect fit for him as they are seemingly enthralled with that archetype these days. Whitcomb is going back to Sugar Land unless something strange happens in the final week of camp. He has hit .261/.335/.485 in nearly 900 plate appearances in Triple-A already with 48 homers and 38 steals over the past two seasons. Bido is Spence insurance, giving me two guys the Stuff+ system likes for upside, while Thomas is coming off a season in the Oakland system where he hit 31 homers with 15 steals between Double-A and Triple-A. That sort of profile is what got Lawrence Butler on the radar before his breakout, and I'm taking a chance Thomas can get a shot at the left field spot for the A's once they move Seth Brown somewhere. Thomas needs to cut down on his strikeouts, which is exactly what Butler did once he made his jump in 2023 after several seasons of strikeout rates above 30 percent.

Overall, I am happier with this squad than I am with AL LABR squad but recognize there is some work to do on the waiver wire and on the trade market to shore up some weaknesses. I will need two of the four players from the "others" bucket to break out, but that is the case for any well-performing fantasy team. You need more players to exceed expectactions and projections than you have players who fall short. 

The full results of the AL-Only auction as well as the NL, Head-to-Head, and Mixed Auctions from this past weekend can be found here.