Collette Calls: Don't Reach or You'll Get Burnesd

Collette Calls: Don't Reach or You'll Get Burnesd

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

This column is officially taking a turn into the 2025 season, because nothing I write is going to influence what your team does over the final two scoring periods. The other writers here are providing advice multiple times a week whereas I am advising on a weekly basis during most of the calendar year. I am playing with a foot in the present, as I continue to battle out AL LABR with James Anderson while also trying to place in the money in two other leagues. I am also playing with a foot in the future, as I'm anxious to write up my Bold Prediction accountability series this year while also prepping for my the XFL draft on November 2nd at First Pitch Arizona.

I want to start the shift to 2025 by looking at a pitcher I am very much planning to avoid in drafts: Corbin Burnes. I made this observation on BlueSky over the weekend as I have now watched Burnes allow two of the most improbable homers this season to both Alex Jackson and Jonny DeLuca on the Rays:

I have a leaguemate doing a draft right now where Burnes went 42nd overall in a pitching run that began with Dylan Cease at the 40th pick followed by Logan Gilbert at 41, Burnes, and then Chris Sale at 43rd overall. It is rather funny that the run ended with Sale because he's a pitcher I aggressively faded this season due to a litany of concerns which

This column is officially taking a turn into the 2025 season, because nothing I write is going to influence what your team does over the final two scoring periods. The other writers here are providing advice multiple times a week whereas I am advising on a weekly basis during most of the calendar year. I am playing with a foot in the present, as I continue to battle out AL LABR with James Anderson while also trying to place in the money in two other leagues. I am also playing with a foot in the future, as I'm anxious to write up my Bold Prediction accountability series this year while also prepping for my the XFL draft on November 2nd at First Pitch Arizona.

I want to start the shift to 2025 by looking at a pitcher I am very much planning to avoid in drafts: Corbin Burnes. I made this observation on BlueSky over the weekend as I have now watched Burnes allow two of the most improbable homers this season to both Alex Jackson and Jonny DeLuca on the Rays:

I have a leaguemate doing a draft right now where Burnes went 42nd overall in a pitching run that began with Dylan Cease at the 40th pick followed by Logan Gilbert at 41, Burnes, and then Chris Sale at 43rd overall. It is rather funny that the run ended with Sale because he's a pitcher I aggressively faded this season due to a litany of concerns which never came true, as he continues to pitch toward his first Cy Young Award and a potential pitching triple crown. Remember that as you read the rest of this article, because my concerns may once again be wholly unfounded.

Let's begin with workload concerns. Burnes has thrown the third-most regular season innings and the fourth-most regular season pitches since the start of the 2021 season. Only Aaron Nola and Logan Webb have logged more innings than Burnes, while only Nola, Cease and Luis Castillo have thrown more pitches. The table below shows Burnes's workload by year, both by innings and pitches thrown (2024 totals projected):

SEASON

AGE

IP

PITCHES

2016

21

35.2

518

2017

22

145.2

2124

2018

23

116.2

1887

2019

24

71.1

1308

2020

25

59.2

1010

2021

26

167.0

2594

2022

27

202.0

3274

2023

28

193.2

3081

2024

29

193.0

3023

Going back to 2014, I find the following pitchers who threw at least 3000 pitches in three consecutive seasons. Crazily enough, they all happened over the same span, as we haven't seen anyone throw three consecutive seasons of 3,000+ pitches since these 10 pitchers did so from 2014 to 2016:

The following season, six of the 10 won at least 10 games, paced by Kluber's 18 wins, while just four of the 10 pitchers had ERAs below 4.00. Finally, four of the 10 pitchers failed to make 25 starts the follow season, with Price (at age 31) having the worst season of the bunch due to injury. 

We have also seen Burnes's numbers decline since he became a full-time starter when we look at three important measures: K-BB%, CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs) as well as Z-Contact% (Zone-Contact):
 

All three of these measures are trending in the wrong direction, and while the trends aren't necessarily linear nor proof of future performance, Burnes's first- and second-half splits fail to alleviate any fears for the future:

SPLIT

IP

ERA

AVG

OBP

SLG

K-BB%

WHIP

1st Half

118.2

2.43

.222

.263

.343

18.0%

1.04

2nd Half

56.2

4.76

.263

.321

.402

11.8%

1.36

Finally, the workload may even be catching up with him in-season, as the velocity on his cutter and sinker have both dipped from August:

Burnes is likely to also shoulder the stress of pitching into the postseason this year as well, as Baltimore hopes he pitches more than just the one start he made in both 2021 and 2023 with Milwaukee as the Brewers exited the playoffs early. Burnes has the motivation of his pending free agency status in play as well and is very likely to lose the comforts of Lord Walltimore, which helps him with home run suppression at home, where he has allowed just six home runs all season to righties. 

In summary, my concerns with Sale prior to this season were about his body failing him yet again. Burnes has missed a couple weeks over the last three seasons with a knee issue but has otherwise made all his starts since becoming a full-season starter and has the mileage to prove it. When you combine the mileage, the pressure of a big new contract with what will likely be his third new team in a calendar year, and the concerning trends in his indicators, Burnes seems primed to be one of the big-name pitchers set to disappoint fantasy managers who reach for his reputation in 2025 drafts. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999, and here at Rotowire since 2011. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast every Sunday. A ten-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls,and was the 2023 AL LABR champion. Jason manages his social media presence at https://linktr.ee/jasoncollette
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