This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball World Series Odds Update: Longshots to Target
By now you degens know the drill. It's a Future Wednesday edition on the column. At my old gig, I carried over my "Weekly Taste" gambling segment (from my early IG betting days) into my named column on the site. I think now, we should have it be reincarnated on RotoWire.
Anyhow, there's been a lot of movement across these future odds, so it makes sense we get back to finding which interns at any number of these sportsbooks hung a wrong line so we can get them fired.
This week let's take a look at some mispriced longshots.
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College World Series Longshot Plays
Over the course of the season, you may notice there are a few teams across various books that don't really belong in their "area" on the board. I know a lot of us like to see who that sneaky team down the list is. Sometimes it's there and sometimes it's not.
In a sport like College Baseball where so much of the tournament is dependent on matchups, it becomes almost impossible for these less-equipped teams to make the run. But it's worth a look nonetheless.
Auburn Tigers +8500 (FanDuel)
Let's be crystal clear about one thing. This is not me campaigning for Auburn to win it all, nor do I think this team will it all. However in a field of teams 50/1 or longer, you're not going to do much better than this group.
Off to a 16-4 start, Auburn stole a dramatic series-deciding game three against Vandy on Sunday. Down three, Cade Belyeu was up with bases loaded, two outs facing Miller Green, one of the top closers in college thus far. On an 0-2 count in the bottom of the 8th inning, he hit a Grand Slam to take the lead and win the game. Actually mesmerizing. Belyeu is also the same player who hit an emotional home run on opening weekend against Holy Cross in the same day his mother passed away.
This Auburn team was fun to watch last season because they had a good offense but absolutely no pitching. Coming into 2025, I felt like they could be an interesting dark horse in the SEC, but until I saw any semblance of reliable pitchers, it was just a wait-and-see. I'm at the point where I still don't think there's nearly enough on the mound for them to be legit contenders, but they do have a lot of talent and upside.
On the mound, Samuel Dutton has blossomed in his first opportunity as a key cog in a rotation. After spending the last three years at LSU, and getting little burn in the last two, Dutton decided to head to a place he knew he would get his chance. All he's done in five starts this year is eclipse a 1.63 ERA and a 34 K/6 BB ratio in 27.2 innings, as well as providing a ton of reliability for his team every Friday night.
The rub has come with finding a steady Saturday-Sunday combo. Cade Fisher had a lot of expectations a couple of years ago at Florida. In 2023, he was an uber-talented freshman lefty that worked out of the pen and started some mid-week games. Because the rotation was Brandon Sproat, Hurston Waldrep, and Jac Caglianone, Fisher wasn't going to start. But the plan was him being the Friday guy in 2024, which was a disaster. Thus transferring to Auburn, he's trying to reinvent himself. It's not going well for him (9 walks and 7 earned in 9.1 innings), but the talent is there if he figures it out.
Christian Chatterton has settled into the Sunday role and to this point he's been solid with a 4.18 ERA and .250 OBA. The bullpen has had some reliable pieces but for Butch Thompson's team there will be a lot of experimenting and mixing/matching going on until the formula is right. If that pitching can become a little more steady, then this team will become an interesting sleeper come June. Of course, it's all led by the lineup.
This group doesn't get the same hype or recognition as Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, or Texas, but Auburn can flat-out rake. For power, average, speed or anything else there's ton of oomph in this lineup. Led by C Ike Irish, a sure-fire 2025 first-rounder (possible top catcher off the board), there's six members with a .300 average or better and seven with an OPS of .900 or higher.
With a lot of balance, it's a difficult task for opposing pitchers, even in the SEC, to get through this lineup unscathed. Cooper McMurray (.373 average/1.172 OPS), Chase Fralick (.394 average/.936 OPS), and Eric Snow (.364 average/1.015 OPS) are just some of the big time contributors right now for an offense that's 34th in WRC+ (139). Irish, even off to a slow start, has missed the last week after being hit by a pitch, so the numbers will just get better.
The big question mark is the schedule. Obviously facing the SEC is like pushing a 500-pound boulder up a mountain, but even for the conference the Tigers have a tough one. They took out Vandy this past weekend. Then go @ Kentucky, @ UGA, vs. Alabama, vs. LSU, @ Texas, vs. Mississippi State, @ Tennessee, vs. South Carolina, @ Ole Miss.
Realistically, Auburn won't be winning the conference. They probably won't be top five either. But if they manage to go somewhere around .500 for this stretch, they could be top 10. Since they wouldn't be hosting, it's more likely they would be a two-seed, maybe even a three in a regional. Then from there, it's whatever the luck of the draw is, which we won't know until the end of May.
At 85/1, I think there's enough upside to take a small piece now to secure a position on a squad that has a high variance to them. You know by the odds, it's unlikely to hit, but if Auburn surprises a lot of people and outperforms expectations, then the books will be forced to adjust their rankings. By that point, 85/1 could become 50/1. It's probably the best of the rest at the moment.
Pick: Auburn to win the CWS 0.25u (FD)
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