This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: Sunday, March 23
Hi, team. Apologies for the no play yesterday, but the travel back from Nashvegas threw the whole day off and there wasn't enough time to give you a play I actually liked. We're back today for the weekend finale. It's a loaded card for me, so let's get you a winner.
UCSB vs UC Irvine Baseball Odds
- UC Irvine -154
- UCSB +120
- Total: 14
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In the series that may ultimately determine the winner of the Big West conference, the UCI Anteaters have decided to grab a monumental early season tilt at UC Santa Barbara. The first two games weren't particularly close as UCI clearly showed who the better team is with a 10-run win and six-run win. Going for the sweeparoo on Sunday would absolutely make a dramatic statement.
Sweeping in college baseball is difficult. I don't care who you're playing. A lot of the series we look at, we say there should be a sweep because one team is so clearly better than the other and there's a big difference between going 2-1 versus 3-0 in one weekend. But when you get to conference play, it gets even more challenging to pull the feat off, which is why when it happens you need to really give a lot of respect to the sweeper.
UC Irvine has looked like a very good team so far. At 16-5 (7-1 in conference), they are poised as the favorite in the Big West, which was already a two or three team race to begin the season. By eliminating UCSB (who got beat at Hawaii last week), they have now put an important early distance between a critical competitor. At the moment, the race looks to be between Hawaii and UCI, though there's a lot of time left.
There's no specified pitcher going for the Anteaters at the moment, which is frustrating. However, using my best guess, I can surmise it will most likely be Ryder Brooks who threw last Sunday. The starting pitching consistency for this team has been its biggest weakness, so that's why they have done a lot of mixing and matching early on. But Brooks was good last week going four innings-one run against CSUN. Otherwise, it's been one inning here, another there for Brooks.
Overall, it's a 3.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .217 OBA, and 2.85 SIERA. The main thing is that - and I've mentioned this a couple times before in different articles - UCSB's offense is an abomination. Like, they're simply not good. There's a few solid producers in there like Trey McCollum (.366 average/.977 OPS), Isaac Kim (.345 average/.915 OPS), Xavier Esquer (.306 average/.953 OPS), and Jack Holman (1.042 OPS/6 homers). But otherwise not much.
As a team, they're batting just .265 with 23 homers, 20 steals, and have 180 strikeouts. Since the start of the Hawaii series last weekend, the Gauchos have scored three runs or less in four of five games, having been shut out twice. They're getting outscored 19-3 this weekend. Understandable they have faced decent pitching, but there's a limit. UCI's pitching just has to be decent on Sunday and they will have a good chance to win.
The only reason why UCSB could have a shot is because of their Sunday guy, Calvin Proskey and his 2.70 ERA and 25 K/7 BB ratio in 26.2 innings. Without question, he's been the best starter of this staff thus far that includes one of the top pitchers and draft prospects in the country in Tyler Bremner. At Hawaii last week, he went 6.1 innings one earned, two walks, and nine K's in a 1-0 loss.
The advanced metrics do suggest Proskey has been a bit lucky considering the SIERA is 3.45 and his BABIP against is .338. However, the thing to like about him is the limiting of free passes and the long ball (just one homer allowed). UCI's offense is very good and has an absolute thumper in the middle in Anthony Martinez. But there's a ton of producers like Colin Yeaman (.404 average/1.278 OPS/6 homers), Jacob McCombs (.385 average/1.203 OPS/6 Homers), Chase Call (.341 average/1.084 OPS/5 homers). Irvine's offense is a little better than I thought it would be coming in to the season, but they are a tad streaky. When they get going, it's like an avalanche, but when they are stagnant, it's like the Sahara desert. They strike out a ton (196 times) as well.
While I do think UCI has a good chance for a sweep, I usually get hesitant on pulling the trigger. Instead I'm electing to go with a lower-scoring Sunday trend bucker. Like last Sunday with TAMU-Vandy under, it's a case-by-case feel. And the case like the Aggies, UCSB can pitch, but can't hit. 14 runs seems a little too high for me given how little the Gauchos have shown at the dish.
Pick: Under 14 -115 (DK)
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