Closer Encounters: 2022 Closer Rankings 2.0

Much has transpired since the first iteration of these rankings. We're due for an update as we enter the home stretch of fantasy baseball drafts these next two weeks.

Below the rankings, I've included several notable risers and fallers. As always, you are welcome to share your thoughts in the comments section. Also be sure to bookmark to our newly re-designed Closer Grid for all the latest closer updates.

2022 Closer Rankings 2.0

Dropped out of the Top 70: Brad Boxberger (re-signed with MIL), Alex Reyes (injury), Carlos Estevez (COL signed Colome), Kendall Graveman (Kimbrel still with CWS), Codi Heuer (injury), A.J. Puk (stretching out to start), Trevor Rosenthal (unsigned), Kirby Yates (injury), Jose Alvarado (PHI signed Hand & Familia)

RISERS

Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, Brusdar Graterol, Alex Vesia, RP, Dodgers - The biggest winner(s?) of Kenley Jansen signing with Atlanta is Treinen, who is likely to receive the primary save share in Los Angeles despite manager Dave Roberts recently declaring a closer by committee. Roberts won't lock Treinen into the closer role, meaning he'll often deploy him as a fireman earlier in games in the highest leverage scenarios. Despite this, Treinen has the most experience in this bullpen with 79 career saves. Even if Treinen isn't the full-time closer, the Dodgers are going to win a ton of games, meaning Treinen could still approach 30 saves with only a 50-60 percent share of opportunities. He only ascends one spot in the rankings since I already projected him for the Dodgers' primary save share, but what about the rest of the save chances? Hudson (up 14 spots), Graterol (previously unranked) and Vesia (up 10 spots) should play a role in the right matchups. Hudson earned 10 saves for the Nationals in 2020, while Graterol fires the ball 100-plus mph and broadened his arsenal for this season with a new pitch (undisclosed). Vesia quickly emerged as the team's top lefty last season and is especially tough on left-handed hitters. He attacks them with his slider and only allowed one hit on the pitch all year, while blanking batters altogether on his changeup. Vesia needs to improve his control (5.0 BB/9) to take the next step forward, but initial returns forecast a promising high-leverage career.

Corey Knebel, RP, Phillies - I don't feel great about including Knebel in the risers section, especially since I recently featured him in Buyer Beware not too long ago. Since that article was published, Philadelphia followed through on my prediction of adding two leverage relievers, albeit unexciting ones, signing Jeurys Familia (125 career saves) and Brad Hand (126) to one-year, $6 million contracts. Despite both possessing plenty of closing experience, manager Joe Girardi recently told the Philadelphia Inquirer that Knebel will be the Phillies closer as of now. I'm still weary of Knebel's injury history and am not confident he gets more than 60 percent of Philadelphia's save chances, but 24 saves — a five-save boost from my initial projection — is reasonable even if his workload is limited to roughly 50 appearances this season. 

Jake McGee, RP, Giants - A few articles ago, I realized I was too light on McGee's initial save projection and would need to adjust it. Fresh off Camilo Doval's dominant September, I originally had him leading the Giants with 17 saves, with McGee earning 15. Even with Tyler Rogers, Zack Littell and Dominic Leone providing ancillary saves support, 32 saves between Doval and McGee likely isn't enough, given the Giants likely will be among the best teams in the majors again this year. A decent adjustment in McGee's favor puts him at 23 saves, with Doval holding firm with the 17 I originally had him projected for. As a result, McGee moves up eight spots in the rankings, settling in at 14th overall. He's one of my favorite draft targets for mid-to-late round saves.

Anthony Bender, Dylan Floro, RP, Marlins - I was among those who thought Miami would be among the favorites to sign Kenley Jansen. Perhaps I just overlooked the fact that Marlins relievers were quite good last season, combining for a 3.79 ERA (seventh in the league). Instead, their "big" bullpen splash this offseason was signing groundball specialist Richard Bleier to an extension. Pending no additional moves via free-agency or trade, that leaves Floro (15 saves in 2021) and Bender (three) at the top of the depth chart for saves. The veteran excelled at limiting hard contact last season, as his 85.9 mph exit velocity ranked in the 94th percentile. However, Floro's career-high 23 percent strikeout rate was still below league average and his walks ballooned to a career-high 9.3 percent. Bender's 8.1 percent walk rate isn't much better, but his Statcast profile looks far more exciting:

I believe Bender's talent will eventually win out and he will lead the Marlins in saves in 2022, even if Floro opens the year in the chair. Remember manager Don Mattingly only used three relievers for saves last season. If that trend continues, it will only benefit Bender and Floro.

FALLERS

Aroldis Chapman, RP, Yankees - Chapman appears to be on the downswing of his career as he enters the final year of his contract with the Yankees. The southpaw still throws as hard as ever (98.5 mph average), but lost his command near mid-season last year and posted the second-highest walk rate of his career (6.1 BB/9). In fact, his 15.6 BB% was third-highest among qualified relievers. He also posted his highest home run rate (1.4 HR/9) over a full season after being near 0.5 HR/9 for most of his career. Another thing working against Chapman compared to the other top-tier closers is volume, as he hasn't pitched more than 58 innings in a season since 2015 with the Reds. Chapman will be 34 when the season starts and actually has legitimate competition for the closer role in Jonathan Loaisiga and Chad Green. I still believe 30 saves is attainable this season, but don't be surprised if Chapman cedes more opportunities to his counterparts.

Craig Kimbrel, RP, White Sox - The trade rumors began shortly after the 2021 season ended when USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that Chicago was expected to pick up Kimbrel's $16 million option then trade him this winter. Trades have certainly been discussed since that time, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Braves were exploring a deal for Kimbrel before agreeing to a one-year, $16 million contract with Kenley Jansen. Robert Murray of The Baseball Insiders podcast even hinted that a Kimbrel trade was close Monday, but later indicated it was a false alarm.

So will he stay with Chicago, or land elsewhere? White Sox manager Tony La Russa recently said he expects Kimbrel to be with the team on Opening Day, and while there's still a possibility a trade could occur — Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Cardinals, Marlins? — the fact he's still with Chicago warrants seven-spot demotion in these rankings. I've scaled back Kimbrel's save projection from 23 to 12, still leaving hope that he may still be moved sometime this season. Of course, there's always a chance he unseats Liam Hendriks for the closer role if the latter endures any kind of extended struggles or injury.

Will Smith, RP, Braves - This one is rather obvious, as Kenley Jansen didn't sign with the Braves to pitch the seventh inning. Not to mention the quality of Atlanta's bullpen depth with Tyler Matzek, Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter, Luke Jackson and eventually Kirby Yates capable of pitching quality leverage innings. Smith takes the biggest tumble in this rankings update, from ninth overall down to 42nd.

Mark Melancon, RP, Diamondbacks - I wasn't thrilled about drafting Melancon even before Ian Kennedy signed with the Diamondbacks. The 37-year-old led the league with 39 saves last season, but posted his highest walk rate (3.5 BB/9) in 12 years and struggled to a 4.32 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over the final month. Looking ahead to 2022, he joins an Arizona team desperate for high-leverage experience, but one that will struggle to come by save chances. The Diamondbacks ranked last with 22 saves last year and are likely to finish in the bottom half of the league in saves again this season. Melancon is likely to have a long leash in the event his struggles carry over, but Kennedy has racked up 56 saves the last three seasons and could easily slide into ninth-inning duty.