This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, April 19
YTD 26-31 (-2.47 units)
Prior article 1-6 (-3.05 units)
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperture/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL medium plays, Totals, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Chicago White Sox 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
The White Sox look like the worst team in baseball and I got burned taking the Royals in the second game of a doubleheader Wednesday. It goes against one of my rules and I found out why.
I still think going against them is the right play and I will continue to do so. The White Sox are 3-15 overall, but 3-9 against the run line in their last 12. Garrett Crochet has been their best pitcher, but Spencer Turnbull on the other side helps even that out. This game could be close in the first five, but then the Phillies will get to the White Sox bullpen.
This is a system I will look to follow – Go against the White Sox on the road when the home favorite is + money on the run line.
MLB Picks for White Sox at Phillies
- Phillies -1.5 for 0.75 unit (PointsBet +125)
Boston Red Sox 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
The Red Sox lineup is very weak right now without Rafael Devers, Tyler O'Neill and Trevor Story. But their starting pitching is among the best in baseball and the Pirates have scored just 3.6 runs per game in their last 10. Both teams are bottom five in batting average over the last week. Boston is traditionally a stronger offensive team at home versus on the road.
The total of 8.5 feels high with these two offenses right now and we have a strong starting pitcher on the Boston side with Brayan Bello.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Pirates
- Red Sox/Pirates UNDER 8.5 for 0.75 unit (FanDuel -115)
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Houston Astros 
at Washington Nationals 
The art of betting on baseball is incredible in that you can not just pick the favorites on the moneyline or run line or you will be in the negative quickly. The Nationals (8-10) are a very interesting team as a dog because they do not strike out very much and MacKenzie Gore is a serviceable starting pitcher. We also get an Astros team (6-14) that is still being overpriced in the market based on their winning history.
This is also Justin Verlander's first start so a quick hook is most likely in play. However, the Astros are crushing left-handed pitching, so we need to look at the Nationals team total vs. a moneyline or run line play.
MLB Picks for Astros at Nationals
- Nationals OVER 3.5 runs for 0.5 unit (BetMGM +110)
Milwaukee Brewers 
at St. Louis Cardinals 
One of the system plays I like to lean on is when there is a significant edge on the starting pitcher with a low moneyline (-125) and total (7.5). We get that with Freddy Peralta against Kyle Gibson. The Brewers are -125 on FanDuel despite being the better team and having the better pitcher. There still looks to be some bias against the Brewers offense that is tied for second at 5.8 runs per game. Peralta's last seven games going back to last year – 38.1 innings, 49 strikeouts, three walks, 3.29 ERA.
MLB Picks for Brewers at Cardinals
- Brewers ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -125)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Phillies -1.5 for 0.75 unit (PointsBet +125)
- Red Sox/Pirates UNDER 8.5 for 0.75 unit (FanDuel -115)
- Nationals OVER 3.5 runs for 0.5 unit (BetMGM +110)
- Brewers ML for 0.75 unit (FanDuel -125)
- PARLAY Phillies -1.5, Brewers ML, BOS/PIT UNDER for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +654)
