AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our AL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

We've incorporated grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's upside on an A-E scale, prioritizing skills and talent above role and playing time outlook. Gunnar Henderson would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similarly high-impact prospects that could thrive in an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $AL-Only $
Paul BlackburnOAKSPCNo25
Joey CantilloCLESPBNoNo3
David FestaMINSPB137
James PaxtonBOSSPCNoRostered5
Ross StriplingOAKSPCNoNo2
Jeffrey SpringsTBSPB51121
Griffin CanningLASPC111
Chris FlexenCHISPD1

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

We've incorporated grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's upside on an A-E scale, prioritizing skills and talent above role and playing time outlook. Gunnar Henderson would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similarly high-impact prospects that could thrive in an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $AL-Only $
Paul BlackburnOAKSPCNo25
Joey CantilloCLESPBNoNo3
David FestaMINSPB137
James PaxtonBOSSPCNoRostered5
Ross StriplingOAKSPCNoNo2
Jeffrey SpringsTBSPB51121
Griffin CanningLASPC111
Chris FlexenCHISPD111
Alec MarshKCSPC111
Joey WentzDETSPD111
Roansy ContrerasLARPDNo25
Luis GarciaLARPENoNo2
Ben JoyceLARPDNo25
Lucas ErcegOAKRPDNo37
Tyler FergusonOAKRPDNo14
Alejandro KirkTORCC37Rostered
Tyler LocklearSEA1BCNo37
Dominic SmithBOS1BC125
Connor NorbyBAL2BB3715
Coby MayoBAL3BA137
Jason VoslerSEA3BDNoNo1
Javier BaezDETSSCNo14
Ernie ClementTORSSC12Rostered
Seth BrownOAKOFCNo25
Oswaldo CabreraNYOFCNo25
Jazz ChisholmNYOFARosteredRostered75
Jonatan ClaseTOROFB125
Jonny DeLucaTBOFCNo14
Cade MarloweSEAOFCNoNo1
MJ MelendezKCOFC137
Dylan MooreSEAOFCNo1Rostered
Cristian PacheBALOFDNoNo1
Hunter RenfroeKCOFC25Rostered
Victor RoblesSEAOFC149
Ryan ViladeDETOFDNoNo1
Matt WallnerMINOFC137

Starting Pitcher

Paul Blackburn, Athletics: Blackburn returned from the IL on Friday and eked out a win against the Angels, giving up four runs over five innings with a 2:1 K:BB. That's probably enough to reassure any potential buyers at the trade deadline. The 30-year-old righty isn't having a great season but he could still provide some stability to the back end of a rotation – he lasted at least six innings in five of his first seven starts before suffering a foot injury in the eighth. He's also under team control through 2025 with one more year of arbitration eligibility, for contenders looking for more than a pure rental. Even if he stays put, he'll have a friendly home park and a inexplicably surging offense at his back. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Joey Cantillo, Guardians: The power lefty is set to make his MLB debut Sunday, but Cantillo wasn't exactly dominating at Triple-A, posting a 39:19 K:BB through 29 innings. The strikeouts are nice, but the walks are icky. He may have turned a corner this month though with a 12:1 K:BB in his last two starts, and Cleveland generally knows what it's doing when it comes to pitching. Originally acquired from the Padres in the Mike Clevinger deal back in 2020, Cantillo has legit stuff with a fastball that can touch 98 mph, a plus changeup and a slider that's emerged as a viable third pitch. He did show better control early in his minor-league career before his velocity spiked, so it could just be a question of him learning how to harness his new arsenal. Facing the Phillies in his debut doesn't exactly make for a soft landing, but if Cantillo shows out, the Guardians have room in their rotation for him to stick around. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $3

David Festa, Twins: Round 2 for Festa against big-league hitters went a little better than his first crack at them did, as he gave up just one run over 4.1 innings to the Phillies as a bulk reliever Wednesday with a 7:2 K:BB. The right-hander had a little trouble keeping the ball in the yard this year with St. Paul but otherwise has little left to prove at Triple-A, posting a 108:37 K:BB in 76.2 innings since reaching the level in 2023, and he's got a strong starter's repertoire with a fastball that can touch 98 mph, a high-spin slider, a solid changeup and a slow curve he can drop in against lefties. Minnesota needs a fifth starter with Chris Paddack out (and maybe even after he's back), so unless they add someone at the deadline, Festa should get a long look. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

James Paxton, Red Sox: The veteran southpaw could be at the end of the road after stumbling to an awful 64:48 K:BB through 89.1 innings with the Dodgers this year, but that won't stop the Red Sox from kicking the tires on him. Paxton was better for Boston in 2023, fanning 101 in 96 innings, but he's lost about two mph off his fastball since then. Maybe the BoSox think they're something mechanical here they can fix, but Paxton's now 35, and his arm is probably older in baseball years due to all the injuries. The guy who teased ace-level upside with the Mariners is long gone. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: Rostered; 12-team AL: $5

Ross Stripling, Athletics: An even more likely trade candidate than Blackburn, Stripling's a free agent in the offseason and also came off the IL this week to get carried to a win by the Oakland offense. He's been pretty shaky the last couple years, but the 34-year-old's impressive 2022 season with Toronto is still recent enough that someone will likely view him as worth rolling the dice on as a fifth or sixth starter. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Jeffrey Springs, Rays: Tampa's cleaning house, with Zach Eflin and Randy Arozarena already gone and other players likely to follow them, but the Eflin deal just ensures there's a rotation spot open for Springs when he gets activated this week. (As with most things Rays, appearances could be deceiving on their deadline activity. The staff won't be any worse with Eflin gone, and Arozarena's replacement could effectively be Junior Caminero... it would be just like them to trade some big names and go on a run to a wild-card spot anyway.) Springs gets the softest possible landing in his season debut, a home game against whoever is left in a Marlins uniform by Tuesday, and he got stretched out to five innings in his final rehab start. There's no reason not to be aggressive here. 12-team Mixed: $5; 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team AL: $21

Other two-start options, Mon-Sun (12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $1)

Griffin Canning, Angels (vs. COL, vs. NYM)
Chris Flexen, White Sox (vs. KC, at MIN)
Alec Marsh, Royals (at CHW, at DET)
Joey Wentz, Tigers (vs. CLE, vs. KC)

Relief Pitcher

Roansy Contreras / Luis Garcia / Ben Joyce, Angels: The inevitable Carlos Estevez deal happened Saturday (and good news for those with Estevez shares, he might still be closing in Philly!), and the closing gig with the Halos is now available. I wrote up Garcia and Joyce last week's – one's a 37-year-old on an expiring contract who's just as likely to be dealt as Estevez was, the other's averaging 101.8 mph with his heater – but the dark horse in the competition is suddenly Contreras. The 24-year-old righty did nab a save July 14 when Estevez wasn't available, but it's his usage over the last week that's made him an intriguing sleeper. Contreras has seen action three times in the ninth inning, just not in save situations – twice with the Angels down by a run, and once to protect a four-run lead. That certainly looks like an audition to me, and if it was he passed it, tossing three scoreless innings with a 3:1 K:BB. Contreras – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5 / Garcia – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2 / Joyce – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Lucas Erceg / Tyler Ferguson, Athletics: Mason Miller landed on the IL on Thursday with a broken pinkie finger on his left (non-throwing) hand, which is about the best possible injury for a pitcher to have. He's still on the shelf for a couple weeks while the A's are surging, and in his absence Oakland relievers have nabbed saves in three straight games, with Ferguson getting the first and third and Erceg the second. Erceg still looks like the better option, or at least the higher-leverage option with the 98.5 mph fastball, but if he keeps getting deployed in the eighth inning as he was Thursday, there will be more leftovers for Ferguson. Erceg – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7 / Ferguson – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Catcher

Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays: Toronto flipped Danny Jansen to the Red Sox this weekend, leaving Kirk as the last catcher standing on the roster. (Wonder if the front office wants a re-do on that Gabriel Moreno deal a couple offseasons ago.) Kirk had a brutal start to the season which is still tainting his numbers, but after another three-hit performance Saturday against the Rangers, he's slashing .304/.323/.393 over his last 15 games with seven runs and nine RBI. His profile says he's been mostly unlucky this season too, with a 7.8 percent barrel rate and 11.7 degree launch angle that are both better than when he slugged a career-high 14 homers in 2022, so there could be a power surge coming down the stretch. With only minor-league veteran Brian Serven to back him up, Kirk looks like he could be one of the sneaky big winners of this year's trade deadline. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: Rostered

First Base

Tyler Locklear, Mariners: Seattle finally stopped waiting to see if Ty France's offseason work at Driveline would pay off, cutting him loose after he managed a .662 OPS in 88 games. Locklear was called up to replace him at first base and has started three of the last four games. That's where the good news ends. He's gone 1-for-12 with six strikeouts, continuing the contact issues that got him sent back to Triple-A in June. The 23-year-old wasn't lighting it up at Tacoma either, slashing .247/.354/.444 in 21 games between big-league stints. The M's are being aggressive at the deadline, having already added Randy Arozarena and Yimi Garcia, and finding a first baseman is probably next on the agenda, whether a starter or a more reliable platoon partner for Luke Raley. Locklear can't be viewed as having much job security, but right now he's basically all Seattle's got. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Dominic Smith, Red Sox: Triston Casas is finally close to beginning a rehab assignment, but Smith and Romy Gonzalez have been an effective platoon for Boston at first base of late. Smith's handling the strong side and is slashing a respectable .273/.355/.491 through 62 plate appearances in July with six doubles, two homers, eight runs and eight RBI. The role limits his usefulness in shallower formats, but as rotations lie right now, Boston is set to face only one lefty over the next couple weeks – Cole Ragans on Aug. 8. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Second Base

Connor Norby, Orioles: The O's swerved us over the All-Star break by talking up a potential Coby Mayo promotion but then bringing up Norby instead when Jorge Mateo landed on the IL. (To me, that says there's another trade coming to create a spot for Mayo, but more on that later.) Norby has started three straight games at second base, bumping Jordan Westburg to third base, and the rookie's gone 2-for-11 with a solo homer and four strikeouts in those three starts. Like every other young whippersnapper at Triple-A Norfolk, Norby's been crushing it this year, slashing .300/.392/.522 with 16 homers and 13 steals in 80 games, so the upside is obvious if he gets comfortable in the majors. Mateo's likely out until at least September, and Ramon Urias is really just an insurance policy, so Norby's biggest playing-time threat is probably Mayo. Even then, if Westburg's still in a rut (he's batting .211 in July), there should be at-bats available. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: $15

Third Base

Coby Mayo, Orioles: The O's just traded Austin Hays to bolster the bullpen and clear some of their outfield logjam, but they may not be done dealing veterans. Ryan Mountcastle's name keeps getting floated, and moving him would create a spot for Mayo, who has seen action at first base this year with Norfolk. It would also give Baltimore an infield of Mayo (22 years old), Norby (24), Westburg (25) and Gunnar Henderson (23), with 20-year-old Jackson Holliday still on the way. I mean, that's just unfair. That sound you hear is every other AL East general manager wailing and gnashing their teeth. Oh, by the way, Mayo's slowed down in July but still has a .291/.365/.585 slash line in 72 games at Triple-A with 20 homers. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Jason Vosler, Mariners: The 30-year-old journeyman came up when Julio Rodriguez went down and has somehow started four straight games, three at DH, and collected exactly one hit in each one. Vosler was having a strong season at Triple-A Tacoma, slashing .289/.357/.526 with 20 homers in 89 games, but he's purely a temp until Seattle's roster gets healthier or more reinforcements arrive at the trade deadline. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Shortstop

Javier Baez, Tigers: Look, I'm not saying rostering Baez is a good idea, but he has homered in three straight games. He also hasn't had a multi-hit performance since May 18, and his .181/.213/.278 slash line on the season isn't just bad luck. If you need some pop and have a hole in your middle infield though, it could be worth seeing how long he can keep it up. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Ernie Clement, Blue Jays: With the Jays in sell mode and Isiah Kiner-Falefa rumored to be one of the next guys to be sent packing, the path to an everyday role for Clement the rest of the season seems very open. He's appeared in 14 straight games, slashing .306/.327/.490 over that stretch with three doubles, two homers, two steals and 13 RBI, and even if they clear out most of the veterans, Toronto's offense may not be terrible as long as it's still anchored by Vladimir Guerrero and a surging George Springer (whose contract is probably untradeable). 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: Rostered

Outfield

Seth Brown, Athletics: Brown is hitting like a guy who has no intention of ever going back to the minors. Since coming back up from Triple-A Las Vegas after Tyler Soderstrom got hurt, the 32-year-old is slashing .389/.450/.778 with four homers and eight RBI in 13 games. Even more encouraging is his 20.0 percent strikeout rate, a massive improvement on his 31.5 percent mark for the year. Brown's always had power and is two seasons removed from a 25-homer campaign, and he's got two more years of team control before reaching free agency – which may not make him less likely to be traded, but should at least increase the return for him a bit. Soderstrom's return timeline is still hazy, so if Brown does stay in Oakland, he could have some real value over the next few weeks. A trade probably lands him in a platoon or bench role, though. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Oswaldo Cabrera, Yankees: Third base remains something of a wasteland for the Yankees, but Cabrera's trying to make a case that he can be the guy. The 25-year-old switch hitter has started five of the last six games (four at 3B, one at 2B) and gone 7-for-21 with a homer and a steal. DJ LeMahieu looks like toast, posting a .481 OPS in July, and Jazz Chisholm is more likely to bump Alex Verdugo to the bench that factor into the infield mix. New York could always trade for a third baseman – they're apparently hot after Isaac Paredes – but if they can't find an upgrade, Cabrera seems like their best option at the hot corner. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Jazz Chisholm, Yankees: Speaking of the Yankees' newest star... Chisholm was dealt from the Marlins on Saturday for a handful of decent prospects, and at the moment he's by far the biggest name crossing over to the AL at the deadline. Maybe someone else comes over by Tuesday, but if you've been keeping your powder dry until now, this is probably the guy you want to burn it on. Leaguemates who wait for July 30 and don't have anyone worth spending big on will feel jealousy that you landed Jazz early. Injuries have always been the biggest issue for the 26-year-old, but he's been healthy in 2024 and still runs like he's in a bicycle race, swiping 22 bags already this year, one off his career high. As for his power, his swing isn't ideally suited for Yankee Stadium – his 37.5 percent pull rate is his lowest since 2021 – but loanDepot Park suppressed left-handed homers anyway, so it should still be a net gain. While leaving home ain't early, Chisholm should adjust quickly to his new digs. Wait, don't stop me now, I have more Queen references I can squeeze in... 12-team Mixed: Rostered; 15-team Mixed: Rostered; 12-team AL: $75

Jonatan Clase, Blue Jays: Acquired in the Yimi Garcia deal, Clase is starting his tenure in the Toronto organization at Triple-A, but that figures to be a very temporary assignment given that Kevin Kiermaier has already cleared waivers and can be kicked to the curb at any time. He immediately becomes the best prospect in the system for fantasy purposes, and while that says more about the state of the Jays' system than it does Clase, he's still got legit upside after he produced a 20-70 campaign between High-A and Double-A in 2023. There are hit tool concerns but he has a good batting eye, which gives him a safer floor for his speed. Expect the Jays to give him a long look over the last couple months as they focus on the future rather than a lost 2024 season. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Jonny DeLuca, Rays: With Randy Arozarena now in Seattle, the Rays have an opening in the outfield, and no immediate options to fill it in the minors. DeLuca's getting the first shot, although the team has plenty of alternatives if he struggles, and players like Amed Rosario and Richie Palacios could be pushed to the OF more often when Junior Caminero gets called up. The roster could also look a lot different Wednesday, depending on what moves the Rays make and who's coming back the other way. As things stand right now though, DeLuca's got a path to consistent playing time, and he's gone 3-for-12 with two walks and a double in three games without Arozarena. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Cade Marlowe, Mariners: Injuries have given Marlowe another chance in Seattle, and he was putting up superficially useful numbers with Triple-A Tacoma, popping 13 homers with 43 steals in 90 games. His 32.4 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A was no bueno though, and the 27-year-old probably won't get enough playing time in the majors to help much. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

MJ Melendez, Royals: Melendez came off the IL on Sunday after recovering from a minor ankle sprain, which makes this a good time to try and scoop him up cheap. His numbers on the season are dreadful, but the 25-year-old was coming around before he got hurt, slashing .288/.350/.548 over his last 24 games with seven doubles, four homers and 10 RBI. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Dylan Moore, Mariners: With J.P. Crawford on the shelf again, Moore's been handling shortstop and doing his usual thing, batting .143 (3-for-21) since the All-Star break with a homer and four walks. He could help in steals, going 17-for-20 on the basepaths this year, and run into an occasional homer, but Moore's a batting average liability. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: Rostered

Cristian Pache, Orioles: Picked up in the Austin Hays deal, Pache is still a defensive whiz in center field, and still offers very little at the plate. The 25-year-old would likely need a Cedric Mullins trade or injury, and for the O's to really sour on Colton Cowser, to have any utility in shallower formats. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Hunter Renfroe, Royals: Renfroe's hits and finally turning into homers again, as he's gone yard twice in the last five games. Over his last 24 contests, the veteran outfielder is slashing .325/.402/.506, and his roster rate is simply way too low on most sites given his consistent playing time and power upside – he's launched at last 20 homers in every full big-league season since 2017, and he's still got time to get there in 2024. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: Rostered

Victor Robles, Mariners: I wasn't going to write Robles up again after last week, but then he got three more hits Saturday. It's easy to forget he was once an elite prospect in the Nationals' system, one of the jewels in the system alongside Juan Soto, but he just never panned out due to injuries and constant swing adjustments. Now 27-year-old and getting a fresh start in Seattle, he's slashing an absurd .377/.449/.557 in 71 plate appearances for his new club with two homers and eight steals. He won't keep up that pace, of course, but he looks like a completely different guy with the M's, and back in the day he was thought to have five-category upside. Maybe he still does. As long as he's hitting, he'll keep starting, whether in center field or in right after Julio Rodriguez is back. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team AL: $9

Ryan Vilade, Tigers: Vilade started five straight games after his mid-July promotion and went 6-for-18 with a homer, but he's now been on the bench for three straight games as the Tigers give Bligh Madris a look instead. Both guys would need a rash of injuries to have real value, and both figure to get bumped back to Triple-A once Riley Greene and Parker Meadows are healthy. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Matt Wallner, Twins: Wallner's seen a lot more playing time than I expected since his promotion in early July, and more importantly he's been productive with it, batting .353 (12-for-34) on the month with three doubles and four homers. He's also got a 39.0 percent strikeout rate, so buyer beware, but it's probably worth seeing how long he can stay hot. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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