This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Futures: AL Cy Young and NL Cy Young Picks
The MLB 2023 season starts Thursday, March 30, and there is a plethora of betting opportunities available for baseball bettors. The Cy Young award is given to the best pitcher in the National and American leagues and will be hotly contested this season. I have used my 28 years of experience and database applications to cut through the top 25 pitchers being offered at the major sportsbooks.
Stay up to date on the AL Cy Young odds and NL Cy Young odds all season here at RotoWire. If you're looking for a sportsbook to bet MLB with this season, try BetMGM using the BetMGM bonus code, which activates a $1,000 first bet offer.
MLB Rule Changes and Impacts
The pitch clock will be a revolutionary change to the traditions of MLB with the ultimate goal to shorten the length of the game and add more drama and continuous action for fans to enjoy. So, for the first time in more than 150 years, MLB games will be played with time constraints and penalties dished out to pitchers and batters for violating these new rules.
Pitchers will be required to deliver a pitch within 15 seconds if no runners are on base and within 20 seconds with runners on base. A called ball will be granted to the hitter's count if the pitch clock expires. The batters have the responsibility to be facing the pitcher in the batter's box with no less than eight seconds remaining on the pitch clock. A hitter will be penalized with a strike added to his current count if the eight-second rule is violated. The overall result of the new pitch clock in Spring training games has shortened the game times by about 30 minutes.
Relief pitchers, especially closers, will be impacted the most by the pitch clock as they generally have to take more time between pitches. Most closers are power hard-throwing pitchers and are brought into the game with a 1 or 2-run lead in the ninth inning. They throw with maximum physical effort and require a few extra seconds to recover and re-focus after every pitch. So, they will be the pitchers most impacted by the pitch clock.
Be sure to check out Jeff Erickson's appearance on VSiN where he explains how the new rule changes will alter betting strategies this season.
Who Are the American League Cy Young Favorites?
We provide an excellent resource displaying all American League pitchers and their odds to win the Cy Young award. Currently, the Texas Rangers' Jacob deGrom is the favorite at +550, which implies a 9.3% probability of winning the award. There is minimal betting value in betting on DeGrom now, but these odds will change significantly over the course of the season and offer more attractive opportunities for bettors, who want to bet on him to win the award.
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AL Cy Young Odds
- Jacob deGrom (+550)
- Gerrit Cole (+700)
- Dylan Cease (+900)
- Alek Manoah (+1200)
- Shohei Ohtani (+1200)
- Shane McClanahan (+1200)
- Carlos Rodon (+1400)
- Shane Bieber (+1600)
- Kevin Gausman (+1600)
- Luis Castillo (+1700)
AL Cy Young Best Bet
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros (+2100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I have bet the Astros Cristian Javier at +2100 as offered by FanDuel to win the AL Cy Young award. Entering the season, the reigning World Champion Astros are the best team in MLB led by their modern edition of Murderer's Row lineup. The Astro's offense is loaded with power, finesse, and speed that will put many runs on the scoreboard providing immense run support for their starting pitchers. There is no greater advantage for a starting pitcher to have than run support.
Javier hails from the Dominican Republic, is 26 years old, and made his MLB debut on July 25, 2020. He has earned a 20-12 record, with a 3.05 ERA spanning 78 appearances including 44 starts in his first three years of service. He is a traditional fastball and slider pitcher, but has exceptional late-breaking and explosive ball movement. His four-seam fastball averages 94 MPH and hitters batted just .183 on this pitch. He decreased the rate of hard-hit balls as defined by Statcast from 43% in the 2021 season to a quite impressive 33% in the 2022 season. He also has added a monster knuckle curve to his pitch arsenal and overall he is only going to get better.
The biggest advantage for him is he will be matched up against opponents' No.2 or 3 starter and not their ace. The Astros have tagged Framber Valdez as their ace, who posted a 17-6 record with a 2.82 ERA including 194 strikeouts in 201.1 innings of work in 2022. Javier will have the best offense behind him and will not have to face opponent aces this season and I like him to emerge as a contender to take home the Cy Young hardware this season.
Who are the National League Cy Young Favorites?
We provide an excellent resource displaying all National League pitchers and their odds to win the Cy Young award. Currently, the Miami Marlins ace, Sandy Alcantara, is the favorite at +500 odds or about a 12% probability to win the NL Cy Young award this season. The race is filled with worthy contenders and the DraftKings odds board has six pitchers at +1000 odds or lower.
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NL Cy Young Odds
- Sandy Alcantara (+500)
- Corbin Burnes (+600)
- Justin Verlander (+700)
- Max Scherzer (+800)
- Spencer Strider (+1000)
- Max Fried (+1200)
- Zac Gallen (+1300)
- Aaron Nola (+1300)
- Zack Wheeler (+1800)
- Julio Urias (+2000)
NL Cy Young Best Bet
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (+1300 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
My best bet to win the NL Cy Young hardware is on the Phillies' Aaron Nola at +1200 odds at DraftKings. He was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 22nd round of the 2011 MLB June Amateur Draft out of Catholic High School in Baton Rouge, LA. In 2022, he posted a hard-luck 11-13 record with a 3.25 ERA including 235 strikeouts spanning 205 innings of work. He led the league with an outstanding 8.10 strikeout-to-walk ratio reflecting his excellent command of all pitches.
He had far more unlucky situations work against him as reflected by a 2.58 fielding independent pitching (FIP) metric marking one of the widest in MLB last season. So, he pitched far better baseball than his losing record indicates. I see his ERA to FIP ratio significantly lower this season and that will translate to many more wins than losses, making him my best bet to win the NL Cy Young award.
