This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Women's fourth-round play begins Monday at the Miami Open, while the men wrap up their third round. The top two seeds in the women's draw will look to continue their march to the second week, while an American favorite will try to avenge a recent loss against a talented underdog, and the WTA's latest teenage sensation looks to add to her Cinderella story.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Denis Shapovalov (+175) vs. Taylor Fritz
Shapovalov has been ranked as high as No. 10 in the world, and while he's coming off a down year in 2024, the big-hitting Canadian has found his game in 2025. He's 10-2 in his last 12 matches, and one of the losses was against Carlos Alcaraz. That strong stretch includes three top-10 wins, one of which came against Fritz in Dallas last month. Overall, Shapovalov is 6-4 against Fritz, with all 10 meetings coming on hard court. Fritz has been pretty vulnerable lately, posting a 7-4 record in his last 11 matches, so the disparity in ranking between No. 4 Fritz and No. 28 Shapovalov isn't indicative of their recent form.
Alexandra Eala (+230) vs. Paula Badosa
There's no substitute for confidence, and Eala has plenty of it coming off the best win of her career. The 19-year-old defeated No. 5 seed Madison Keys, 6-4, 6-2 in the third round, backing up a 7-6 (2), 7-5 win over No. 25 seed Jelena Ostapenko. Having already navigated two of the WTA's biggest hitters, Eala won't be overwhelmed by Badosa's power. Badosa required a third-set tiebreak against another teenager in Victoria Mboko in the second round, and the Spaniard hasn't been particularly sharp since her Australian Open semifinal run, with jsut a 6-4 record since then.
Honorable Mention
Coleman Wong (+150) vs. Adam Walton
Miami Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Aryna Sabalenka (-500) vs. Danielle Collins
Collins is the defending champion here, but the American has regressed lately after her career year in 2024, as she came into this tournament with a 3-8 record in her last 11 matches. Sabalenka is a tough matchup for anyone, but the world No. 1 has been particularly effective against Collins, as the Belarusian has won all six of their previous encounters, including a pair in 2024.
Iga Swiatek (-380) vs. Elina Svitolina
Svitolina upset Swiatek in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon in 2023, but Swiatek has never been particularly comfortable on grass. This matchup is a whole different story on hard court, which Swiatek proved with a routine 6-1, 6-4 victory in Dubai last year to take a 2-1 career head-to-head edge over Svitolina. While Iga has had some struggles in close matches recently, it will be difficult for Svitolina to stay close enough to apply scoreboard pressure against the world No. 2.
Honorable Mention
Jakub Mensik (-200) vs. Roman Safiullin
Miami Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Emma Raducanu (+125) vs. Amanda Anisimova
Anisimova's coming off a 7-6 (5), 2-6, 6-3 win over Mirra Andreeva, snapping the Russian's lengthy winning streak. That victory came despite an error-filled performance from the American, and Raducanu is well positioned to capitalize on Anisimova's erratic play. While Anisimova has the clear edge in power, she struggles to effectively get down to low balls, and Raducanu's strokes naturally produce the types of low-bouncing balls that give Anisimova trouble. Raducanu capitalized on that stylistic advantage when they played at the Australian Open in January, as the Brit won 6-3, 7-5 in what was their first career encounter.
Arthur Fils (-125) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Fils is ranked 18th and rising, and it likely won't be long before the 20-year-old Frenchman's in the top 10. He's coming off a quarterfinal showing at Indian Wells, where Tiafoe lost in the third round to 349th-ranked Yosuke Watanuki, which dropped the American's record to 5-5 in 2025. While Tiafoe plays his best tennis while feeding off the crowd in the United States, mental lapses have creeped into his game too frequently this year, and he can't afford to donate service games in this matchup, as Tiafoe's underwhelming return game is unlikely to generate many break opportunities against Fils, who has a big serve of his own and plenty of power to back it up.
Honorable Mention
Jasmine Paolini (+125) vs. Naomi Osaka
