This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both Wimbledon men's semifinals are set to be played Friday. If both favorites win, it would set up a rematch of last year's thrilling Wimbledon final, but both underdogs are coming off upset wins to reach this stage and will have belief due to previous head-to-head success against Friday's opponents.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
Wimbledon Odds: Alcaraz vs. Medvedev
Carlos Alcaraz (-350) vs. Daniil Medvedev (+270)
Alcaraz's Wimbledon winning streak stands at 12 matches, as he won the title here last year and is two matches from defending a Grand Slam title for the first time in his young career. That streak includes a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 semifinal shellacking of Medvedev last year, though Alcaraz hasn't exactly looked invincible on grass, needing five sets to beat Novak Djokovic in the final last year (understandably) and five sets to get through Frances Tiafoe in the third round this year (surprisingly). Alcaraz has a 4-2 head-to-head edge over Medvedev overall, though the 6-foot-6 Russian actually leads 2-1 at Grand Slams. Medvedev beat an 18-year-old Alcaraz at Wimbledon in 2021 when the talented Spaniard was still learning how to play on grass, and Medvedev avenged last year's Wimbledon loss at the U.S. Open, where he played his best match of 2023 to take out Alcaraz in four sets. Interestingly, that U.S. Open four-setter was the only one of their previous six encounters that didn't end in straight sets, so we could be in store for the most competitive match yet in the Alcaraz-Medvedev rivalry Friday.
Despite reaching the semifinals here last year, Medvedev hasn't been viewed as a true contender on grass, though his five-set win over No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals did a lot to change that narrative. Medvedev didn't beat a seeded opponent en route to the semifinals last year before being soundly dismissed by Alcaraz, and the fifth-ranked Russian's only win over a seed at Wimbledon this year prior to beating Sinner came via Grigor Dimitrov's first-set retirement. The slick grass has helped amplify the effectiveness of Medvedev's excellent first serve, and he has adapted to the surface by leaving his comfort zone and playing aggressively earlier in rallies, but offense comes much more naturally to Alcaraz and the Spaniard has the defensive skills to neutralize Medvedev's more frequent forays forward. With Medvedev struggling on his second serve at times, his key to keeping this match competitive will be to hit his spots on the first serve -- Medvedev made 68 percent of his first serves and won over 75 percent of first-serve points in both last year's U.S. Open win over Alcaraz and Tuesday's win over Sinner, but he made only 59 percent of first serves and won 70 percent of those points in last year's Wimbledon loss to Alcaraz.
Wimbledon prediction: Alcaraz def. Medvedev 7-6, 4-6, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3
Wimbledon Odds: Djokovic vs. Musetti
Novak Djokovic (-700) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+500)
There's more value in betting on Musetti as the heavy underdog, though Djokovic should certainly be favored to emerge victorious. Djokovic caught a break with Alex de Minaur pulling out prior to their quarterfinal match due to a hip injury, so the 37-year-old Serb will be fresh coming into the 49th Grand Slam semifinal of his career. Djokovic has yet to reach a final at any tournament in 2024, so he appears to be slowing down just a bit, but the No. 2 seed played arguably his best match of the year in his Round of 16 straight-set sweep of Holger Rune and hasn't been pushed to five sets in this tournament. While Djokovic's elite return skills and controlled aggression don't immediately jump out as must-have traits on a grass court, there's no denying his proficiency on this surface, as he has seven Wimbledon titles under his belt.
Musetti's 1-5 head-to-head record against Djokovic looks uninspiring on the surface, but the talented Italian has actually had Djokovic on the ropes at a Grand Slam twice, as Musetti had a two-set lead at the 2021 French Open and led two sets to one at this year's French Open. Musetti's lone win against Djokovic came on clay, while Djokovic has dropped just nine games in their two hard-court matchups combined, and this will be their first meeting on grass. Although Musetti's best results prior to this tournament came on clay, the faster and less physical grass-court points should help the 22-year-old Italian avoid running out of gas, which was his downfall in both of their French Open encounters. The 25th-seeded Musetti has battled hard to reach this point, winning two five-setters and three four-setters, including a 3-6, 7-6 (5), 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 quarterfinal upset of big-serving American Taylor Fritz. Musetti's shot making allows him to pierce Djokovic's defense more consistently than all but a handful of players, which is why Musetti has managed to play Djokovic tight before, but producing enough high-quality offense to win this match will be especially difficult for Musetti with the pressure of playing in his first career Grand Slam semifinal hanging over the underdog.
Wimbledon prediction: Djokovic def. Musetti 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 7-5
