This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth round of Wimbledon continues Monday from the All England Club, as we officially enter the second week of the grass-court Grand Slam. A pair of former Wimbledon champions could have trouble against opponents who have a history of playing them tough, while a surging American is in good position to keep advancing against a player who had been struggling heading into this tournament.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Wimbledon Picks: Upset Alert
Anna Kalinskaya (+295) vs. Elena Rybakina
The women's draw is growing short on big names after a plethora of upsets over the first week, and Rybakina might just be the next big name to fall. The 2022 Wimbledon champion has sandwiched a three-set win over Laura Siegemund between a pair of dominant wins, but Kalinskaya will be the first seeded opponent for Rybakina in this tournament. Kalinskaya has climbed to No. 18 in the rankings thanks to a breakout season that has included a quarterfinal showing at the Australian Open, a WTA 1000 final in Dubai and a 500-level final on grass in Berlin leading up to Wimbledon. Even before Kalinskaya established herself as a condender in big tournaments, she always played Rybakina tough. They have a 2-2 WTA head-to-head, and these two 25-year-olds from Moscow have played countless other matches against each other, having grown up as friends and rivals. Between Kalinskaya's belief stemming from their familiarity and the pressure of the opportunity in front of Rybakina with so many contenders having been knocked out, this is a prime spot for another major upset in the women's draw.
Holger Rune (+235) vs. Novak Djokovic
Djokovic's knee hasn't seemed all that bothersome after his surgery a month ago, but he has hardly looked his best at this tournament, getting pushed to 7-5 in the fourth set by 277th-ranked Jacob Fearnley in the second round and to 7-6 in the fourth by 47th-ranked Alexei Popyrin in the third round. Rune is a different class of player compared to those two. The 21-year-old Dane has slipped to 15th, but he was ranked No. 4 less than a year ago and was in the conversation with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner as the ATP's third rising young star. Rune also has plenty of belief against Djokovic specifically, which is something almost universally lacking in the 37-year-old legend's opponents these days. Djokovic has a narrow 3-2 edge in their head-to-head, and Rune has won at least one set in all five of their previous matchups. Rune just dug out of a two-set hole against Quentin Halys in his previous match, so the Dane can also swing freely here against a diminished Djokovic who still has yet to reach a final in 2024.
Honorable Mention
Taylor Fritz (+140) vs. Alexander Zverev
Wimbledon Odds: Lock It In
Danielle Collins (-220) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Collins has reached the Round of 16 without dropping a set, continuing the stellar form that has helped her post a 27-4 record since the start of the Miami Open in March. Krejcikova has been on the opposite end of the spectrum for most of 2024, as she went just 3-7 between the conclusion of the Australian Open and the start of Wimbledon. While the 2021 French Open champion has perked up at the majors this year outside of her first-round exit at Roland Garros, Krejcikova's overall form the past few months has been far worse than Collins', so the American is in good position to extend her final Wimbledon run another round.
Honorable Mention
Alex de Minaur (-500) vs. Arthur Fils
Wimbledon Predictions: Value Bets
Elina Svitolina (-190) vs. Xinyu Wang
Svitolina is coming off an excellent performance in her 6-1, 7-6 (4) third-round win over Ons Jabeur, and the No. 21 seed has yet to drop a set in this tournament after reaching the Wimbledon semifinals last year. Wang has been pushed to three sets in each of her three matches, and she's seeking her first Grand Slam quarterfinal. Between Svitolina's edge in experience and proven grass-court capabilities, this is clearly the Ukrainian's match to lose.
Lorenzo Musetti (-120) vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Mpetshi Perricard has come out of nowhere as a lucky loser to make the Round of 16 while burying opponents with his monstrous serve. The 20-year-old Frenchman has benefited from the element of suprise, as there isn't much of a "book" on him yet for opponents to pinpoint his tendencies while scouting. He won't have that element of surprise against the 25th-ranked Musetti, who beat Mpetshi Perricard 7-6 (9), 7-6 (9) in Stuttgart on grass less than a month ago. Musetti has one of the best one-handed backhands on the ATP Tour, while Mpetshi Perricard's one-hander is a substantial weakness, so the Italian's ability to default to backhand-to-backhand patterns in any neutral rallies could prove to be the difference in a match that's likely to come down to a few key points with few breaks of serve.
Honorable Mention
Jelena Ostapenko (-135) vs. Yulia Putintseva
