This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth round of Wimbledon begins Sunday, as the middle Sunday hasn't been a day off at the All England Club since 2022. This will be a busy day for Americans in both the men's and women's draws, including a pair of underdogs hoping to take out top-two seeds in their respective draws. Meanwhile, another pre-tournament favorite has a nice opportunity to get back on track after a shaky performance against an American opponent in his previous match.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Wimbledon Picks: Upset Alert
Emma Navarro (+270) vs. Coco Gauff
Gauff has cruised into the fourth round, but the No. 2 seed hasn't had to face any opponents of note, knocking off three players ranked outside the top 50. Navarro is much more battle-tested, having beaten four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka and red-hot Diana Shnaider to get to this point. The 19th-seeded Navarro took longer to develop than Gauff, but the underdog is coming into her own at age 23 and showed she can hang with the WTA's best by beating Aryna Sabalenka earlier this year. Gauff hasn't reached the quarterfinals here in any of her previous four attempts, and Navarro won't make it easy for Gauff to finally get past the Round of 16 on the 20-year-old's least favorite surface.
Ben Shelton (+1100) vs. Jannik Sinner
Shelton has done well to reach this point, battling through three consecutive five-setters and looking more comfortable on the grass with each match. The 21-year-old American has a game well built for grass, as he loves to get forward behind one of the best serves in the sport. Sinner struggled against the big-serving Matteo Berrettini in the second round, getting broken four times in a narrow four-set win. If the top seed gives Shelton that many opportunities to break, this could turn into a very challenging match, and Shelton won't lack belief considering he has won one of their previous three encounters. Sinner should definitely be favored here, but Shelton's current odds are much longer than the tale of the tape suggests.
Honorable Mention
Jasmine Paolini (+195) vs. Madison Keys
Wimbledon Odds: Lock It In
Tommy Paul (-425) vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
Paul survived a second-round scare in five sets against Otto Virtanen, but the 12th-seeded American rebounded nicely with a straight-sets third-round win over big-serving Alexander Bublik, extending Paul's grass-court winning streak to eight matches. The Queen's Club champion will have a distinct edge in freshness over the 36-year-old Bautista Agut, who needed two days to complete his 7-6 (6), 3-6, 5-7, 7-6 (1), 6-4 third-round win over fellow veteran Fabio Fognini. With the 112th-ranked RBA well past his prime and Paul playing the best grass-court tennis of his career, the 27-year-old American has a distinct advantage here.
Carlos Alcaraz (-750) vs. Ugo Humbert
Alcaraz was pushed to the limit by Frances Tiafoe in the third round, surviving a fourth-set tiebreak to emerge with a five-set victory after trailing two sets to one. The Spaniard's level in that match was probably the floor for the reigning Wimbledon champion, and Alcaraz is likely to bounce back against an opponent in Humbert who is ranked 13 spots above Tiafoe at No. 16 but is a far less dangerous player. Tiafoe is a former Grand Slam semifinalist who can take the racquet out of your hands with his big serve and attacking game style, while Humbert's searching for his first Grand Slam quarterfinal in his 23rd major appearance.
Honorable Mention
Emma Raducanu (-600) vs. Lulu Sun
Wimbledon Predictions: Value Bets
Grigor Dimitrov (+115) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Grass courts generally favor more aggressive players, and Dimitrov is naturally much more offensive-minded than Medvedev. While Medvedev leads their overall head-to-head 7-3, Dimitrov has won their only previous encounter on this surface. Both players have reached the Wimbledon semifinals once before, but Medvedev's current five-spot edge in the rankings is due to his superior hard-court results, so Dimitrov's a nice value as the slight underdog in a very winnable match for the Bulgarian in these conditions.
Honorable Mention
Paula Badosa (-120) vs. Donna Vekic
