This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Miami Open rolls on Monday with fourth-round play on the women's side and third-round play for the men. A pair of top-five women's seeds could be in trouble against American underdogs, while some favorites on the men's side are in good position to keep advancing.
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All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Madison Keys (+225) vs. Elena Rybakina
Rybakina has looked vulnerable at this tournament, as she was pushed to 6-4 in the third set in each of her first two matches, despite facing two players ranked outside the top 70. The No. 4 seed withdrew from Dubai and missed Indian Wells due to an illness, so she may still not be at 100 percent physically and has had trouble getting into a rhythm in Miami due to a lack of recent match play. The 18th-ranked Keys presents a major step up in competition from Rybakina's previous two opponents, as the American is one of the few players who can match Rybakina's power off the ground. Keys leads their head-to-head 2-1, with all three prior meetings having come in 2022.
Emma Navarro (+150) vs. Jessica Pegula
Few players have more momentum than Navarro, as the surging American is off to a 20-6 start in 2024. That record includes a recent win over world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka in Indian Wells, and Navarro just defeated Dubai champion Jasmine Paolini 6-0 in the third set in the third round. Pegula has been near the top of the wins leaderboard in recent years, but the world No. 5 is just 8-4 in 2024, and her 7-5, 6-4 third-round win over Leylah Fernandez was Pegula's first victory over a top-50 opponent this year. Given their recent results, the 22-year-old Navarro is more than capable of pulling this one out over the 30-year-old Pegula to usher in a changing of the guard near the top in American tennis.
Honorable Mention
Lorenzo Musetti (+215) vs. Ben Shelton
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Karen Khachanov (-370) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Cerundolo has played his best tennis at the Miami Open, reaching the semifinals in 2022 and quarterfinals in 2023, but the Argentine has a sub-.500 career hard-court record and is just 7-8 overall this year. Khachanov is the far more accomplished hard-court player, as the Russian has been to two Grand Slam semifinals on the surface and also earned a silver medal at the Olympics in 2021. Khachanov unceremoniously ended Cerundolo's Cinderella run here last year, 6-3, 6-2 in the quarterfinals, improving to 2-0 in their career head-to-head.
Alex de Minaur (-450) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
De Minaur almost never loses to players he should beat, as the Australian speedster is 18-5 in 2024, with only two losses to players ranked outside the top six and one loss to a player outside the top 20. The strong start to the year has helped de Minaur climb into the top 10, while Struff has never been ranked in the top 20. The German's just 6-7 in 2024, and while their 2-2 career head-to-head is a point in Struff's favor, de Minaur has taken his game to a higher level in 2024.
Honorable Mention
Grigor Dimitrov (-525) vs. Yannick Hanfmann
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Anhelina Kalinina (-110) vs. Yulia Putintseva
Saving a match point often breathes new life into a player for the rest of the tournament, as you feel like you're playing with house money the rest of the way. Kalinina is the latest example of that phenomenon, as she was a point away from a second-round exit against Caroline Wozniacki before ultimately escaping with a 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 win. The 32nd-seeded Ukrainian then rode that wave to a 6-4, 1-6, 6-1 upset over Sabalenka in the third round. The 68th-ranked Putintseva is locked in, having won six of her last seven matches, with the only loss over that span coming to world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. Nonetheless, Kalinina's the stronger bet in this toss-up given her higher ranking and the path the Ukrainian has taken to reach the fourth round.
Victoria Azarenka (-140) vs. Katie Boulter
The Miami Open has been one of Azarenka's favorite and most fruitful tournaments over the years, as she's a three-time champion and is thriving once again in 2024. The 34-year-old Belarusian is coming off a 6-4, 7-5 second-round win over No. 7 seed Qinwen Zheng, and while Azarenka's ranked two spots back of Boulter at No. 32, Azarenka's superior track record -- especially at this venue -- makes this her match to loss. Boulter won a title in San Diego three weeks ago, but the Brit hasn't been to a quarterfinal in 2024 besides that tournament.
Honorable Mention
Sebastian Korda (+140) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
