This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Fourth-round play from the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells continues Wednesday. A youngster coming off a career-defining win will look to ride his momentum to another upset victory, while an American's history of success at this tournament has him in good position to keep advancing, even against a higher-ranked opponent. On the women's side, a top seed who has looked vulnerable so far has a nice opportunity to find her game in a favorable matchup. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Luca Nardi (+475) vs. Tommy Paul
Confidence is paramount in tennis, and few things provide a larger confidence boost than a victory over a living legend like Novak Djokovic. Nardi's still just 2-6 against top-50 players in his career, but the 20-year-old Italian won't feel intimidated in his first Masters 1000 fourth round coming off a 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 win over the world No. 1. With all the pressure on Paul, Nardi can swing freely, and the lucky loser is a nice value as by far the largest underdog in action Wednesday.
Honorable Mention
Diane Parry (+195) vs. Maria Sakkari
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Coco Gauff (-370) vs. Elise Mertens
Gauff hasn't played her best tennis so far in this tournament, but just like March Madness brackets, "survive and advance" is the name of the game in tennis. The world No. 3 looked better in her 6-2, 7-6 (5) third-round win over Lucia Bronzetti than her 2-6, 6-3, 7-6 (4) second-round escape against Clara Burel, and another incremental step up in form should be all it takes for Gauff to get through the 24th-seeded Mertens. Gauff has won all three previous meetings with the Belgian, and Mertens lacks the power off the ground to hit through Gauff on these slow hard courts. Mertens is a highly decorated doubles player who thrives at the net, but Gauff is at her best using her retrieval skills to get extra balls back and hitting targets with passing shots, so this is a comfortable stylistic matchup for the favorite.
Casper Ruud (-200) vs. Gael Monfils
Fatigue from round to round typically isn't as much of an issue in best-of-three set tennis since men train for best-of-five in Grand Slams, but one can't help but wonder how much fuel the 37-year-old Monfils has left in the tank following a three-hour, 12-minute marathon against Cameron Norrie in the third round. His second-round match against Hubert Hurkacz spanned two hours to boot, and Monfils' scrambling play style is especially physically draining. The veteran Frenchman's in great form having notched back-to-back quality wins, but Ruud's powerful forehand should help him finish points off the ground in a way that Hurkacz and Norrie couldn't. The No. 9 seed has yet to drop a set in this tournament, and Ruud's strong play coupled with Monfils' weariness suggest Ruud should take care of business here.
Honorable Mention
Aryna Sabalenka (-550) vs. Emma Navarro
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Daniil Medvedev (-165) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Medvedev leads the head-to-head against Dimitrov 6-3 overall and 6-2 on hard courts, though one of Dimitrov's victories came at this tournament in 2021. The difference between these players' hard-court results in recent years is substantial, as Medvedev has reached the championship match in five of the last seven hard-court Grand Slams while adding five Masters 1000 hard-court titles since 2019 and a title at the 2020 ATP Finals. Dimitrov's lone Masters 1000 title came in 2017, and he hasn't even been to a Grand Slam quarterfinal since 2021. The fourth-ranked Medvedev has a nine-spot edge in the rankings, and the 28-year-old Russian is nearly five years younger than his aging opponent. Any way you slice it, Medvedev's clearly the better player at this stage in their respective careers
Taylor Fritz (-140) vs. Holger Rune
Rune is ranked five spots ahead of Fritz and would probably be favored over the 12th-ranked American at most tournaments, but Indian Wells is an exception. Fritz is looking for a fourth consecutive trip to the quarterfinals at his home tournament, which the Californian won in 2022. Rune has had to play only one match to reach this point, defeating Lorenzo Musetti, who is far more dangerous on clay. With a 3-3 career main-draw record at Indian Wells, the 20-year-old Dane is still unproven at this venue, while Fritz is 15-2 in his last 17 matches here. Fritz won their only previous encounter on the hard courts of Miami last year.
Honorable Mention
Daria Kasatkina (-185) vs. Yue Yuan
