This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both Australian Open men's semifinals will be played Friday, which is Thursday night for viewers in the United States. As was the case in the women's semifinals, one men's semifinal features the top two remaining title favorites, though the competitors in the men's "undercard" are far more accomplished than those that played in the less anticipated women's semi. These opponents are no strangers to facing each other, but certain recent trends in the underdogs' results suggest they could overcome unfavorable history against their opponents and pull off upsets this time around. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best-of-five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
Australian Open Odds: Djokovic vs. Sinner
Novak Djokovic (-195) vs. Jannik Sinner (+160)
Djokovic entered this tournament as the clear title favorite and remains favored to take home an 11th Australian Open title, but he hasn't exactly shown his best form thus far. Djokovic hasn't been pushed to a fifth set, but three of his five opponents have won a set, while Sinner has cruised into the semis without dropping a set. In a rare turn of events, it's Djokovic rather than his opponent that will have to raise his level, lest the 36-year-old Serb suffer his first defeat down under since 2018. Djokovic won his first three head-to-head encounters with Sinner, including Wimbledon matchups in 2022 and 2023. Sinner finally broke through late last year, beating Djokovic 7-6 in the third at at the ATP Finals and 7-5 in the third in Davis Cup, though Djokovic avenged the group-stage ATP Finals loss with a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Sinner in that tournament's championship match.
Considering that Sinner has been pushed to the brink in his two wins and beating Djokovic in best-of-five set play is an order of magnitude more difficult than doing so in best-of-three, it will take a near-perfect effort from the 22-year-old Italian to pull off this upset. That being said, this is by far the best Sinner has looked at a Grand Slam so far, both physically and mentally. He's dictating play with controlled aggression and has managed to access another gear in the biggest moments late in sets, a skill reserved for select few champions like Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. A 20-year-old Sinner couldn't close the deal after taking the first two sets against Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2022, but the current version has developed a killer instinct under the tutelage of Darren "Killer" Cahill. It would be fitting if the Australian coach's pupil made his Grand Slam breakthrough against Djokovic at the Australian Open.
Australian Open prediction: Sinner def. Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 7-6, 2-6, 6-4
Australian Open Odds: Medvedev vs. Zverev
Daniil Medvedev (-160) vs. Alexander Zverev (+135)
It's a testament to just how good Medvedev is that he has played far from his best tennis yet finds himself in another Grand Slam semifinal and is favored to reach a sixth hard-court Grand Slam final. Only one of his five wins at this tournament has come in straight sets, and Medvedev was pushed to five sets by Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round and Hubert Hurkacz in the quarterfinals. The Russian tactician surprised Hurkacz by moving up much closer than usual on his return position to begin that quarterfinal match, and Medvedev will likely try some tricks to disrupt Zverev's rhythm after the sixth-seeded German posted a ridiculous 85 percent first serve percentage in his four-set quarterfinal upset win over Alcaraz.
Zverev is supremely talented but has held himself back mentally at times in the biggest moments. He has generally been at his best when the pressure's off, and that should be the case here with Medvedev favored. Having already survived match tiebreaks against Lukas Klein and Cameron Norrie in this tournament, Zverev's about as battle-tested as it gets, which could pay off in what's likely to be a tightly contested affair. Unsurprisingly for two players who routinely work their way deep into big events, these two have an extensive head-to-head history. Medvedev holds an 11-7 edge overall, including 10 of the last 12, but this will shockingly be their first encounter at a Grand Slam, where the stakes are greater and a significantly higher level of fitness and mental fortitude is required. While Medvedev has dominated the recent head-to-head, Zverev comes into this match feeling much better about his current level. If Medvedev continues to struggle on serve after coughing up 21 double faults in his last two matches while Zverev serves like he did against Alcaraz, it will be awfully tough for the No. 3 seed to make up that deficit.
Australian Open prediction: Zverev def. Medvedev 6-3, 3-6, 7-6, 6-4
