This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Quarterfinal play at the Australian Open begins Tuesday, which will be Monday night for American viewers, with two men's matches and two women's matches from the hard courts of Melbourne Park. Favorable head-to-head histories suggest both favorites on the men's side are likely to keep rolling along, while a clash between Grand Slam champions has a chance to produce an upset in the women's draw. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Barbora Krejcikova (+500) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
All four of this slate's favorites are in good position to keep advancing, but Sabalenka could be the most vulnerable of the group against the most decorated of the underdogs. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head against Krejcikova 5-1, but Krejcikova has proven capable of getting the job done on the game's biggest stages. The No. 9 seed won the French Open in 2021 and added a hard-court WTA 1000 title in Dubai last year, defeating world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, No. 2 Sabalenka and then-No. 3 Jessica Pegula en route to the latter title. If Krejcikova can conjure up that level again, she's capable of ending Sabalenka's run of consecutive Grand Slam semifinals at five. Krejcikova is the more battle-tested of the two, having been pushed to a deciding set in three of four matches, while Sabalenka's dominance at this tournament could be a double-edged sword. The defending champion has lost just 11 games in four matches during her title defense but hasn't been forced to respond to any adversity.
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Novak Djokovic (-1000) vs. Taylor Fritz
Djokovic has utterly dominated Fritz head to head, winning all eight of their previous encounters while dropping a total of two sets. A silver lining for the 12th-seeded American is that both sets he won came in a 2021 Australian Open clash, but Djokovic was playing through an abdominal injury in that match. The top-seeded Serb isn't struggling physically at the moment, so this match is more likely to resemble their most recent encounter, which Djokovic handily won 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 in the quarterfinals of the 2023 US Open.
Coco Gauff (-900) vs. Marta Kostyuk
Gauff has been the most dominant player in the women's singles draw outside of Sabalenka, dropping more than three games in just one of eight sets here while pushing her Grand Slam match winning streak to 11. The American teenager has taken a step forward offensively while maintaining her signature elite defense, and the fourth-seeded Gauff should keep rolling against the 37th-ranked Kostyuk. Both players have benefited from favorable draws, as Kostyuk's second-round win over No. 25 seed Elise Mertens -- which went to a match tiebreaker -- marks the only victory over a seeded opponent for either Gauff or Kostyuk at this tournament. The only previous meeting between these two went to Gauff 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 in Adelaide two years ago, and Kostyuk has lost seven of her last eight matches against top-20 opponents.
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bet
Jannik Sinner (-390) vs. Andrey Rublev
Sinner's the least substantial favorite of the four favored players here, but he's unlikely to face significant danger in this match. The fourth-seeded Italian has carried over his strong finish to 2023 into the beginning of 2024, reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals without dropping a set. Rublev is ranked just one spot back of Sinner, but the Russian is clearly a tier or two below the game's top players when it comes to Grand Slam play, as Rublev's 0-9 in Grand Slam quarterfinals. Sinner leads their head-to-head 4-2, but a closer look shows he has been far more dominant than those top-line numbers. Both of Rublev's wins came in matches that Sinner was unable to finish due to injuries, while Sinner has dropped just one set across his four wins. With Sinner healthy heading into this one, he's likely to take the final step to setting up a much-anticipated semifinal clash with Djokovic.
