This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first Grand Slam of 2023 begins Monday in Australia, which is Sunday night stateside. Given the current state of men's singles, every Grand Slam has a chance to rewrite the record books, and the 2023 Australian Open is no exception. Rafael Nadal's looking to add to his all-time record of 22 Grand Slam titles, while Novak Djokovic – who is allowed to participate this year – can tie Nadal atop the all-time list at what has historically been Djokovic's best major. Iga Swiatek emerged as the best player in the women's game with two Grand Slam titles last year, but she's far from the only bright young star on the WTA Tour.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at the 2023 Australian Open, let's acknowledge some notable absentees. Roger Federer has officially retired while Serena Williams has done so in all but name. World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz (leg) won't play in Melbourne, while the pregnant Naomi Osaka will miss the 2023 season, and two-time Grand Slam champion Simona Halep is serving a suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. Other players who won't be in attendance include Marin Cilic (knee) and Gael Monfils (heel) on the men's side, as well as Angelique Kerber and Elina Svitolina, both of whom are or were recently pregnant.
Both the men's and women's draws have clear favorites, though Djokovic is favored compared to the rest of the field, which isn't the case for Swiatek. After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (DK), FanDuel Sportsbook (FD), BetMGM (BetMGM) and Caesars Sportsbook (Caesars) in that order. The odds can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple betting platforms. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including those that just launched in Ohio.
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The Favorite
Novak Djokovic [DK: (-110), FD: (-125), BetMGM: (-120), Caesars: (-125)] - He may be seeded No. 4, but Djokovic is still No. 1 in many fans' hearts, as well as the oddsmakers' minds. He was famously barred from playing here last year, but Djokovic had won the previous three Australian Opens, so it's hardly surprising that he's favored against the field, albeit not by much. If you're a Nadal fan that doesn't want Djokovic to tie Rafa at 22 Grand Slams, don't despair just yet. Father Time is just as undefeated as Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open since 2018, and Djokovic is due to slow down at some point now that he's 35. A common issue aging athletes run into is an increased susceptibility to injury, and Djokovic is dealing with a hamstring injury, though it didn't keep him from winning the tune-up tournament in Adelaide last week.
In the Mix
Daniil Medvedev [DK: (+550), FD: (+600), BetMGM: (+550), Caesars: (+550)] - Medvedev is the clear second-favorite at all sportsbooks. He has made the championship match in three of the last four hard-court slams, and Medvedev beat Djokovic in the 2021 US Open final, but I would fade Medvedev at his current odds. The No. 7 seed is in Nadal's quarter of the draw, so he may be required to beat Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Djokovic consecutively to win the title, and that's if he gets through a potential third-round pitfall against Sebastian Korda. Medvedev also hasn't proven capable of going toe-to-toe with Djokovic at this tournament, winning one set between their two previous encounters down under.
Nick Kyrgios [DK: (+1600), FD: (+1600), BetMGM: (+1600), Caesars: (+1200)] - In case you missed the second half of last year, Kyrgios seems to care about tennis now? We'll see how the sensational server looks coming out of the offseason, but a fit and motivated Kyrgios is certainly a title contender, especially in front of a decidedly pro-Kyrgios Australian crowd. If nothing else, Kyrgios has the best chance of any player to beat Djokovic head to head, and he could get a chance to do so in the quarterfinals.
Rafael Nadal [DK: (+1700), FD: (+1800), BetMGM: (+1400), Caesars: (+1400)] - After the draw came out and revealed he has the toughest first-round opponent of any contender in ascending 21-year-old Jack Draper, Nadal's title odds have been surpassed by those of Stefanos Tsitsipas [DK: (+1400), FD: (+1500), BetMGM: (+1400), Caesars: (+1200)], in addition to Medvedev and Kyrgios. Nadal has been counted out before only to prove the doubters wrong, and the reigning Australian Open champion should be considered the No. 2 title contender until proven otherwise. He beat Medvedev in last year's final, and the top-seeded Nadal wouldn't have to play Kyrgios or Djokovic until the championship match. I wouldn't blame you for waiting to see whether he beats Draper before betting on Nadal, and his odds would still be quite enticing at that point considering I'd have Rafa and Medvedev flipped right now.
A couple other guys who sneak into this category are Jannik Sinner [DK: (+2000), FD: (+2000), BetMGM: (+2000), Caesars: (+1600)] and Taylor Fritz [DK: (+1700), FD: (+2000), BetMGM: (+2000), Caesars: (+2000)]. Sinner has been a quarterfinalist at all four Grand Slams, and his best tennis is still ahead of him at age 21. Fritz pushed Djokovic to five sets at the 2021 Australian Open, he's coming off a career year at age 25, and the earliest he could play any of the people I've mentioned so far is the semifinals. Tsitsipas belongs in this group of secondary contenders as well; he made his third Australian Open semifinal in 2022 but went just 5-3 at Grand Slams the rest of the year.
Sleepers
Alexander Zverev [DK: (+3000), FD: (+4800), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+2500)] - Zverev hasn't looked particularly sharp in his return from torn ankle ligaments followed by a bone edema, but his poor recent form could be a blessing in disguise, as it should take the pressure off for a player who's famous for getting in his own head in big matches. Though he's seeded No. 12 here, Zverev had risen to No. 2 in the world and was going toe-to-toe with Nadal in the French Open semifinals when he suffered the ankle injury. Winning big tournaments has been tough for anyone on the men's side with a select few players gobbling up most of the titles, so these are tremendous odds for a player with five Masters 1000 titles, two titles at the ATP Finals and an Olympic gold medal. Zverev's also in the comparatively easier Fritz section of the draw.
Casper Ruud [DK: (+3000), FD: (+3000), BetMGM: (+3300), Caesars: (+2000)] - Ruud is the No. 2 seed and has made the finals in two of the last three Grand Slams, yet his title odds remain quite long. He's also another player nestled into the quarter of the draw with Fritz and Zverev, where the path to the semifinals is the least daunting. Ruud is still thought of primarily as a clay-courter, but he could well be the US Open champion right now if not for Carlos Alcaraz, who won't be participating in this tournament.
Sebastian Korda [DK: (+3500), FD: (+4500), BetMGM: (+3300), Caesars: (+4000)] - Korda has the highest ceiling of the young Americans, and the 22-year-old is coming off a fantastic run in Adelaide, where he had match point before falling 6-7 (8), 7-6 (3), 6-4 to Djokovic in the final. For those of you that have the upcoming NFL playoffs on your mind – which Ohioans and other eligible users can bet on right now – think back to when the Eli Manning-led Giants almost beat the 2007 Patriots in the final week of the regular season, then used the confidence boost from that near-victory to make it to the Super Bowl, where they won their rematch against heavily favored New England. Like Manning, Korda's the son of an accomplished player in his sport, as his father Petr Korda won the 1996 Australian Open. Could Korda pull off a Manning-like run for the ages and beat Djokovic in the championship match here?
WOMEN
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek [DK: (+225), FD: (+220), BetMGM: (+240), Caesars: (+200)] - It's actually a bit surprising that Swiatek is viewed as a clear underdog against the rest of the field combined, even though she's the clear favorite relative to any other individual. Her best surface is clay, but Swiatek gets along just fine on hard courts, having won five of her last nine tournaments on the surface, including the 2022 US Open. Until another player proves capable of hanging with her in a Grand Slam setting outside of grass, every non-Wimbledon major will be firmly Swiatek's to lose.
In the Mix
Aryna Sabalenka [DK: (+750), FD: (+700), BetMGM: (Odds locked at press time), Caesars: (+750)] - Like Medvedev, Sabalenka is the clear No. 2 betting favorite in her draw. Like Medvedev, I think she's just a tad overrated in that spot. Sabalenka pushed Swiatek to 6-4 in the third in the US Open semifinals, then got revenge with a 6-2, 2-6, 6-1 win at the WTA finals, but the fact that her win was indoors is an important distinction. Sabalenka's tremendous power plays up in pristine indoor conditions, but she can struggle with the elements, especially on serve. While she firmly belongs in this group, I would put her below these next two players.
Coco Gauff [DK: (+1600), FD: (+1300), BetMGM: (+1400), Caesars: (+1200)] - Gauff is still just 18 years old, and the promising American is coming off a breakout season in which she logged her best career result at both the French Open (runner-up) and US Open (quarterfinalist). She's proven she can make it deep in majors, so now it's time to raise the expectations. The No. 7 seed would play Swiatek in the quarterfinals if they both get there. That's a major hurdle, but if Gauff can clear it, she would be the clear title favorite from there. Gauff will have plenty of confidence after starting off 2023 in dominant fashion, winning the ASB Classic without dropping a set.
Caroline Garcia [DK: (+1100), FD: (+1200), BetMGM: (+1200), Caesars: (+1000)] - Nobody was hotter down the stretch in 2022 than Garcia, who beat Swiatek in her home country en route to the Poland Open title in July, won eight consecutive matches to capture the WTA 1000 in Cincinnati in August, reached the US Open semifinals in September, then won the WTA Finals in November. The No. 4 seed has some potentially tricky early opponents, but she's in arguably the weakest quarter of the draw along with No. 8 seed Daria Kasatkina.
Other borderline contenders include Jessica Pegula [DK: (+1200), FD: (+1000), BetMGM: (+1000), Caesars: (+1000)] and Ons Jabeur [DK: (+1400), FD: (+1400), BetMGM: (+1400), Caesars: (+1200)]. Pegula's chances seem overstated, as her steady game helps her avoid early upsets but makes it tough to beat top opponents in the later rounds, which is why she's 0-4 in Grand Slam quarterfinals to date. Being in the section of the draw with the most dangerous floaters doesn't help her chances. Jabeur made the finals in each of the last two majors, and she's my way-too-early pick to win Wimbledon in 2023, but certain opponents can overpower her cerebral game on hard courts. A potential Sabalenka-Garcia-Swiatek gauntlet from the quarterfinals onward would likely be too much to overcome for the No. 2 seed, though I would flip the odds on Jabeur and Pegula.
Sleepers
If you like deep sleepers, then the women's game is for you, as there are significantly more players with long odds yet a realistic shot at the title here.
Victoria Azarenka [DK: (+6500), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+4500)] - Azarenka's a two-time Australian Open champion. Those titles came back in 2012 and 2013, but the 33-year-old remains a player to watch out for on hard courts, as Azarenka has also been to three US Open finals, with the most recent coming in 2020.
Amanda Anisimova [DK: (+8000), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+4000)] - Both the 28th-seeded Anisimova and the 24th-seeded Azarenka are among the aforementioned dangerous floaters in Pegula's quarter, though Anisimova could face the No. 3 seed as early as the third round. Anisimova has the skills to navigate this difficult draw, as the 21-year-old American has already made a French Open semifinal in her career. She also beat both Belinda Bencic and Naomi Osaka at last year's Australian Open before adding a Wimbledon quarterfinal later in 2022, showcasing her all-court game.
Emma Raducanu [DK: (+8000), FD: (+8500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+5000)] - Raducanu won as a qualifier at the 2021 US Open. That seems so long ago given the 20-year-old Brit's subsequent struggles, but the talent is still there. Raducanu's playing through an ankle injury, but if any long shot is capable of catching lightning in a bottle, it's her.
Linda Fruhvirtova [DK: (+30000), FD: (+11000), BetMGM: (+15000), Caesars: (+20000)] - Fruhvirtova will be a household name before long. The 17-year-old Czech has already climbed to No. 80 in the world, and she will be joined in the main draw by 15-year-old sister Brenda Fruhvirtova, who managed to make her way through qualifying. This is just the second Grand Slam main draw of Linda's career, so it will probably take a few more tournaments before she works her way into true contention. That being said, this is the era of teenagers doing great things in tennis, and you can bet $5 on Fruhvirtova for a chance to win $1,500 right now on DraftKings while taking advantage of our DraftKings Promo Code, which gets new users $200 in free bets when they bet $5.
Sasha's Picks to Win the Australian Open:
Ultimately, I think chalk will prevail, with Djokovic capturing his 10th Australian Open title and Swiatek claiming her first. Kyrgios has the best chance of knocking Djokovic out, and he would become the title favorite if he does so, while Nadal is a terrific value at his odds. Adding small bets on both to cover your bases while putting most of your money on Djokovic is the smart play.
Gauff's a great value bet, as I view her as the likeliest player to win the title should Swiatek falter. Given the unpredictable state of the women's game behind Swiatek, you can make a compelling case for a lot of the other players mentioned above as well, though you're better off betting on Pegula's parents' Bills to win the Super Bowl than Jessica to win the Australian Open if you insist on putting money on that family.
