This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Australian Open quarterfinals begin with a pair of men's matches and a pair of women's matches Tuesday in Melbourne, which is Monday night stateside. Three of the four women in action here have won a Grand Slam before, but a player hungry for her first major title is poised to get one step closer. There are three Americans among the final eight players on the men's side, and one of them will be taking the court among this group of matches. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, including those that just launched in Ohio.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups are considered below, with added emphasis on players' form through the first four rounds. Those factors are used to pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Jelena Ostapenko (+180) vs. Elena Rybakina
Both Ostapenko and Rybakina are coming off upset victories, as the 2017 French Open champion just took out Coco Gauff 7-5, 6-3, while the 2022 Wimbledon winner knocked off Iga Swiatek 6-4, 6-4. Rybakina has a significantly better serve, but Ostapenko is the better player off the ground. In both of their previous encounters, Ostapenko's skill set has won out, as the 25-year-old Latvian has won all four sets against Rybakina. We have seen no shortage of upsets in this tournament, and Ostapenko could well pull off another one here.
Lock It In
Jessica Pegula (-280) vs. Victoria Azarenka
Pegula has been locked in all tournament, reaching the quarterfinals without dropping a set. The No. 3 seed will be looking to finally break through at this stage after losing in each of her previous four Grand Slam quarterfinals. A matchup with the 24th-seeded Azarenka offers a nice opportunity for the last remaining American woman to do so. While the late-blooming Pegula is playing the best tennis of her career at age 28, Azarenka's best is behind her at age 33, and the Belarusian had to overcome one-set deficits in each of the previous two rounds. These two have split four previous meetings, including a Pegula victory at the 2021 Australian Open.
Honorable Mention:
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-650) vs. Jiri Lehecka
Value Bet
Karen Khachanov (+110) vs. Sebastian Korda
This match is a toss-up, so Khachanov's a nice value as the slight underdog. The US Open semifinalist has yet to be pushed to five sets en route to the quarterfinals here, and he just rattled off 14 consecutive games to begin his fourth-round victory over No. 31 seed Yoshihito Nishioka. Despite being seeded only two spots ahead of Nishioka, Korda should present a significantly larger challenge, though it's fair to question how the 22-year-old American's body will hold up coming off just the fourth five-setter of Korda's career, which went to a match tiebreak against Hubert Hurkacz. Korda's only previous five-set win came against Corentin Moutet at last year's Australian Open, after which he fell to Pablo Carreno Busta in four sets. One of his two five-set losses was to Khachanov at Wimbledon in 2021, though Korda responded with a pair of victories over Khachanov in 2022. The one factor in which Khachanov has the clear edge is big-match experience, as the Russian has now been to the quarterfinals or better at all four Grand Slams, while this will be the first major quarterfinal of Korda's career.
