This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth round of the Australian Open continues Monday in Melbourne, which is Sunday night in the United States. The current title favorites in both the men's and women's draws will be in action, while a pair of rising stars look to continue their Cinderella runs in just the second Grand Slam main draw appearances of their respective young careers. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, including those that just launched in Ohio.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups are considered below, with added emphasis on players' form through the first three rounds. Those factors are used to pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Linda Fruhvirtova (+195) vs. Donna Vekic
Fruhvirtova's making a name for herself at this tournament. The supremely talented 17-year-old has shown a level of maturity beyond her years, allowing her to construct points with the savvy of a veteran and hold her nerve in big moments late in sets. Vekic has outplayed her No. 64 ranking recently, winning six consecutive matches, but 20th-ranked Liudmila Samsonova is the only top-30 opponent Vekic has beaten during this streak. The 26-year-old Croatian will feel the pressure in this winnable match as Vekic tries to reach just her second Grand Slam quarterfinal in 37 attempts, while Fruhvirtova's playing with house money in her second career Grand Slam main draw.
Honorable Mention
Shuai Zhang (+160) vs. Karolina Pliskova
Lock It In
Novak Djokovic (-390) vs. Alex de Minaur
Djokovic isn't fully healthy, but he has still managed to win every match comfortably while managing his hamstring issue. He won the 2021 Australian Open while playing through an abdominal tear for his ninth title at this tournament, so there's recent precedent for Djokovic taking care of business here at less than 100 percent. De Minaur will have the crowd behind him, but Australia's last hope in singles just doesn't have the offensive capabilities to trouble Djokovic. The 24th-ranked counterpuncher is lightning-quick, but de Minaur generally struggles against top players with the ability to push him around through controlled aggression, which is why he's been past the fourth round of a Grand Slam only once.
Honorable Mention:
Caroline Garcia (-270) vs. Magda Linette
Value Bet
Aryna Sabalenka (-150) vs. Belinda Bencic
Sabalenka has been mowing down the competition, dropping no more than five games in any match. Her power off the ground coupled with newfound serving consistency has allowed Sabalenka to push opponents around, and she's the title favorite in the wake of Iga Swiatek's loss to Elena Rybakina. Bencic is an aggressive baseliner much like Sabalenka, but the Swiss 25-year-old relies more on court positioning and redirecting the ball, which will be tough to do against Sabalenka's power. Neither player wants to spend much time defending, and Sabalenka should have an easier time taking control of rallies thanks to her superior serve.
Ben Shelton (+105) vs. J.J. Wolf
Both of these Americans are in the Round of 16 of a Grand Slam for the first time, though it has taken Wolf significantly longer to reach this stage. Shelton has played his way into his first Australian Open and second career Grand Slam, raising his level with every match. The 20-year-old NCAA champion knocks the cover off the ball with easy power off both wings, giving Shelton more ways to take control of points than Wolf, who packs the classic American combination of a big serve and forehand with an exploitable backhand. The 24-year-old Wolf's playing the best tennis of his career, but there's a reason that he hasn't previously made it this far in a Grand Slam.
Honorable Mention:
Andrey Rublev (-105) vs. Holger Rune
