This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
There's no shortage of intriguing storylines surrounding Friday's men's singles semifinals at Wimbledon. Each match features an all-time great taking on a notable challenger. Novak Djokovic came one match from a calendar year Grand Slam last year but could be shut out entirely at the majors in 2022 if he loses here, so the pressure will be on him against Cameron Norrie, who in just a few short years has gone from playing in the Big 12 Conference for Texas Christian University to playing in the final four at Wimbledon while competing under the British flag. There's no shortage of drama surrounding Nick Kyrgios even in low-stakes matches, so one can only imagine what's going through his head as he prepares for his first career Grand Slam semifinal against 22-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal. News that Nadal has an abdominal tear has actually made Kyrgios the betting favorite to reach the Wimbledon final despite Nadal's perfect record in Grand Slam matches this year.
The four semifinalists have taken varied paths to this point, but they are all just two matches from winning the Wimbledon title. Each player has proven capable of beating quality opponents on grass, but a look at prior results, especially in best-of-five set matches in Grand Slams, can help project who will have the upper hand in Friday's matchups. All match odds below are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
Nick Kyrgios (-155) vs. Rafael Nadal (+130)
Nadal's ability to even take the court Friday is in question due to an abdominal injury, but it was encouraging to see him practicing Thursday after needing medical treatment during his quarterfinal match against Taylor Fritz, which Nadal eventually won in a fifth-set tiebreak. Between Nadal's hampered state and Kyrgios' excellent form in this tournament, the Australian is actually considered the betting favorite in his first career Grand Slam semifinal. Kyrgios burst onto the scene with a four-set upset win over Nadal at Wimbledon in 2014, but Nadal got revenge with a similar scoreline at the All England Club in 2019, and the Spaniard leads their head-to-head 6-3 overall.
Nadal has overcome plenty of tough situations in Grand Slams this year en route to a 19-0 record, so count him out at your own risk. Given Kyrgios' serving prowess, this match could come down to a few key points in tiebreaks. Kyrgios won both of the tiebreaks these two played in his 2014 upset win, while Nadal followed the same formula to victory in 2019. In fact, Kyrgios took the first five tiebreak sets in their head-to-head history, while Nadal has won all five since. If Nadal's able to mitigate the effects of his injury, he's a nice value as the slight underdog here.
Novak Djokovic (-1600) vs. Cameron Norrie (+800)
Djokovic survived a scare from Jannik Sinner in the previous round, storming back from a two-set deficit for a 5-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 win. Part of what makes Djokovic and Nadal so difficult to beat at Grand Slams is their ability to wear you down physically, even while they're trailing in a best-of-five match. Norrie has thrilled the crowd with grinding rallies to become the first British men's singles semifinalist at Wimbledon since Andy Murray won the title in 2016, but unlike Sinner, he lacks the power to wrest control of baseline rallies from Djokovic.
Even if Norrie embraces the moment in the biggest match of his career thus far rather than being hindered by nerves, this match will likely be played on Djokovic's terms, so the 12th-ranked Brit's best chance of winning is an off day from the 20-time Grand Slam champion, who has won 26 consecutive matches at Wimbledon since retiring in the second set of his 2017 quarterfinal match against Tomas Berdych. The only previous meeting between Djokovic and Norrie came at the 2021 ATP Finals, with Djokovic cruising to a 6-2, 6-1 victory.
