This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth round of the US Open begins Sunday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York. The match of the day pits the reigning US Open champion against the 2022 Wimbledon finalist on the men's side, while head-to-head history points to an upset opportunity in another men's match. In the women's draw, one American should keep rolling as a heavy favorite while another's in with a chance as a significant underdog. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but occasionally you can find more favorable odds by searching other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the best sports betting sites.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Karen Khachanov (+190) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Khachanov is ranked 16 spots behind Carreno Busta at No. 31, but the Russian leads the head-to-head between these two 5-3. That favorable record includes wins in each of their last three meetings overall and straight-sets wins in each of their last four hard-court encounters. Throw in the apparent adductor or back injury that Carreno Busta sustained in Friday's third-round win over Alex de Minaur, and the Spaniard's chances in this match appear to be overstated despite Carreno Busta's strong recent form.
Ajla Tomljanovic (+180) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Tomljanovic is coming off one of the biggest wins you can get, ending Serena Williams' career 6-1 in the third set while overcoming a hostile crowd. After that monumental victory, the Wimbledon quarterfinalist should have no shortage of confidence heading into this rematch with Samsonova, who beat Tomljanovic in three sets in the Citi Open last month to knot their career head-to-head at 1-1. This is Samsonova's 10th Grand Slam appearance and only her second time past the second round.
Honorable Mention:
Alison Riske-Amritraj (+330) vs. Caroline Garcia
Lock It In
Coco Gauff (-340) vs. Shuai Zhang
Gauff has been locked in, as the No. 12 seed has yet to drop a set through three rounds and just handled 20th-seeded compatriot Madison Keys 6-2, 6-3. Her mix of power and court coverage allow Gauff to handle any matchup, and the 18-year-old American won her only previous encounter with Zhang in straight sets earlier this year in Miami. This is Zhang's 10th US Open main draw, and the 33-year-old has never been past the third round here.
Honorable Mention:
Casper Ruud (-525) vs. Corentin Moutet
Value Bet
Nick Kyrgios (+165) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev's the defending champion here, but Kyrgios just beat him last month at the Canadian Open to improve his career head-to-head record against the world No. 1 to 3-1. It's been a subpar summer for Medvedev on the North American hard courts, and his draw so far in this tournament hasn't presented any opportunities to truly assess his form, as Medvedev has faced two players ranked outside the top 100 and 58th-ranked Arthur Rinderknech, who hasn't beaten a top-40 opponent since February. Kyrgios will be Medvedev's toughest challenger yet, and the Aussie will be awfully tough to beat if he serves up to his capabilities, as he's dropped just one set through three rounds and wasn't broken in either of the other two matches.
Honorable Mention:
Ons Jabeur (-110) vs. Veronika Kudermetova
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