This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the US Open continues Saturday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York. A top-16 men's seed who has been a consistent presence in the second week of majors makes for an appealing underdog, while a pair of Belarusian women are poised to keep advancing and an American's hoping to repeat her result in an Australian Open quarterfinal rematch. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but occasionally you can find more favorable odds by searching other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the best sports betting sites.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Diego Schwartzman (+165) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Schwartzman hasn't been great lately, but the oddsmakers have swung the pendulum too far against him ahead of this matchup. The Argentine's a substantial underdog despite being ranked 10 spots ahead of Tiafoe at No. 16 and leading their head-to-head 2-1. Tiafoe's also a player that thrives off crowd support, and while the American will get plenty of it, the contingent of Argentine fans at the US Open shouldn't be underestimated and will make the crowd feel closer to neutral than Tiafoe's used to here.
Garbine Muguruza (+160) vs. Petra Kvitova
It's largely been a disappointing season for Muguruza, but the former world No. 1 and two-time Grand Slam champion has found her form at the US Open, getting through talented youngsters Clara Tauson and Linda Fruhvirtova without dropping a set. Kvitova leads their head-to-head 5-1, but they have only met once since 2018, and Muguruza certainly has enough game to pull off the upset given how she's looked so far in New York and the fact that Kvitova hasn't made it past the third round of a Grand Slam in her last seven tries.
Honorable Mention:
Jenson Brooksby (+290) vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Lock It In
Cameron Norrie (-330) vs. Holger Rune
Norrie's the far more polished hard court player at this stage of their respective careers. The ninth-ranked Brit won a hard-court Masters 1000 at Indian Wells last year and is 26-11 on the surface this year. Meanwhile, Rune was the beneficiary of a second-round walkover due to John Isner's fractured wrist, but the 19-year-old Dane's only 5-7 on hard courts in 2022. Rune almost upset Norrie in Cincinnati a few weeks ago -- Norrie won 7-6 (5), 4-6, 6-4 -- but this one's likely to be a more decisive result in Norrie's favor.
Aryna Sabalenka (-650) vs. Clara Burel
Burel upset Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina en route to the second Grand Slam third round of the 21-year-old Frenchwoman's career, but another major upset probably isn't in the cards for the world No. 131. Few things boost your confidence more than snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, and that's exactly what Sabalenka was able to do in the previous round against Kaia Kanepi, defeating the Estonian giant slayer 2-6, 7-6 (8), 6-4 despite trailing 5-1 in the second set and facing two match points. A more relaxed and focused Sabalenka should be able to overpower Burel on the ground.
Honorable Mention:
Jessica Pegula (-700) vs. Yue Yuan
Value Bet
Victoria Azarenka (-195) vs. Petra Martic
Azarenka's one of the more accomplished hard court players of this era, as she's won the Australian Open twice and made the US Open final three times, doing the latter as recently as 2020. Martic, on the other hand, came into this tournament with just a 9-9 career record at the US Open. These two players have surprisingly played only once before even though both are north of 30, with Azarenka winning comfortably way back in 2012. That meeting doesn't mean much, but the 26th-ranked Azarenka's far better results on this surface and 28-spot edge in the rankings do.
Danielle Collins (-170) vs. Alize Cornet
Collins is 9-1 at hard-court Grand Slams in 2022, and her up and down results in between can be excused due to her extensive injury issues. Looking healthy and effective again, the 19th-seeded American beat both Naomi Osaka and Cristina Bucsa in straight sets. Cornet's an experienced veteran who won't go down easily, but Collins defeated her 7-5, 6-1 in the Australian Open quarterfinals this year, so she knows what it takes to solve Cornet's counterpunching game in a big Grand Slam match.
Honorable Mention:
Karolina Pliskova (-110) vs. Belinda Bencic
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