Women's World Cup: Thursday DFS Breakdown

The final four group stage matches take place Thursday, and we have quite a split of games in terms of motivations. The Netherlands and Canada face off to determine the winner of Group E, with both sides coming in level on six points after beating Cameroon and New Zealand, and they have an equal goal differential of plus-3. A draw will see the Netherlands finish first because they lead on goals scored (four to three heading into the match), which means the only way they don't top the group is if Canada beats them. Oddsmakers are expecting the match to be very close, with the Netherlands a slight +160 favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook while Canada is +175 to win and the draw is +230. The match is also not expected to have a plethora of goals, with the under 2.5 sitting at -124 while the over is +102.

The United States and Sweden play to determine the winner of Group F, with a draw allowing the Americans to top the group because of their goal differential, which sits at plus-16 heading into Thursday. It's tough luck for Sweden, as no other team in the tournament has a better differential than their plus-6, though France and Germany have the same and they've already played three matches. That being said, Sweden's goal differential is expected to decrease Thursday, as the United States is -410 to win, with the over 2.5 goals at -134 (though the over 3.5 is +200). Whoever comes out on top of the group will play Spain in the round of 16, while the second-place team will get whoever finishes first between Canada or the Netherlands.

The United States is through to the round of 16, but after significant rotation in the second match there are indications head coach Jill Ellis will go back to her primary lineup, which means we could see the three-headed attacking monster of Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe and Tobin Heath back up top. Morgan and Rapinoe were excellent in the demolition of Thailand while Heath was surprisingly kept off the scoresheet before coming off in the 57th minute. Heath isn't a high-volume shooter like Morgan is, so while it was surprising she didn't take a single shot, we probably shouldn't be expecting five or more even when she's dominant. Meanwhile, Rapinoe does shoot more and crosses on set pieces, so there's always a reason to consider her. Morgan is the most expensive player on DraftKings' showdown at $14,100 and FanDuel's single game slate at $17, which is pretty unsurprising after she scored five goals on 10 shots (six on target) and had three assists on three chances created against Thailand. Her price is really high on DraftKings, to the point where you're sacrificing probably two spots if you roster her; nevertheless, she's likely to be highly owned. The trio of Morgan, Rapinoe and Heath will leave $11 left on FanDuel, which is 22 percent of the total salary cap, while trying that on DraftKings will leave $11,500 in salary, or 23 percent. If you want to roster those three and use the three lowest-priced players on DraftKings, well, you're out of luck, as the three cheapest players cost a combined $11,700. It's doable on FanDuel, mostly because Heath is only $8, a result of scoring 7.3 fantasy points against Thailand versus Morgan's 137.0 and Rapinoe's 56.3. Morgan's anytime goal scorer odds are -113 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which really isn't that high, while Heath's are -105 and Rapinoe +132. They're obviously not the only people who could score, or even start, as Carli Lloyd is -103 and could be in consideration even if she doesn't start. She's pretty expensive on DraftKings at $10,000, so it's not like you're saving money by rostering a substitute, though she's $9 on FanDuel, which is much more attractive for a player not guaranteed to even feature. The United States is heavily favored, but this is definitely their toughest match of the group stage. If anything, we can at least have plenty of confidence that scoring one, two or three goals won't make them sit back and bunker. The tougher part for the showdown and single-game slate is whether you want to take second-level starting Americans like Lindsey Horan, Rose Lavelle, Samantha Mewis, Julie Ertz and Crystal Dunn or grab a few players from Sweden.

Kosovare Asllani comes in with two goals (one in each game) on eight shots (three on goal), 11 chances created, 10 crosses and five fouls drawn in the tournament, and she's the seventh-most expensive player on DraftKings (though not all six ahead of her are likely to start together), while only four players are more expensive on FanDuel. Given her price on the former site, you're likely taking her at $9,700 instead of Mewis ($9,500), Lavelle ($9,300) or Ertz ($8,700), and you'll actually have to pay more for Lloyd ($10,000). The match may not be close, but Sweden won't just lay down, so combining Asllani with one of the higher-priced attackers could be somewhat of a differential move. Asllani has taken some corners, though defender Magdalena Eriksson has taken nine in two games, helping her to 10 crosses in each. At $5,100 on DraftKings, she's cheaper than both expected U.S. center-backs, while Hanna Glas is $400 less. Then again, Eriksson has been significantly more productive, so the small salary savings probably isn't worth it. And if you're game-log watching, you'll see that both Fridolina Rolfo and Anna Anvegard each had five shots in their last game, but you need to remember they played Thailand, who has tied the record for most goals allowed in a group stage and they still have one more game to play.

Canada v. Netherlands is another match that will decide who finishes first and second in their group, though the game is expected to be much closer. A win will guarantee first place, but a draw will see the Netherlands finish on top because they have the same goal differential but have scored more goals. It's tough to get a great read on the teams' defensive qualities because they've played Cameroon and New Zealand, but it's worth noting that Canada hasn't even conceded a shot on target, and they have nine clean sheets in their last 10 games.

Christine Sinclair was the most well-known player from Canada heading into the tournament, but Janine Beckie has been their best player, as she has 10 shots, including three on goal, 12 chances created and 25 crosses in two matches, including 13 crosses against Cameroon and 12 against New Zealand. She is cheaper than basically all of the American attackers, and while the matchup against the Netherlands is hardly the easiest, you could certainly justify her in cash games on DraftKings if you think the U.S. doesn't blow the doors off Sweden. Nichelle Prince made good in the New Zealand game, scoring one goal on six shots (three on target) and one assist on her lone chance created, giving her some appeal for those who want to stay away from Sinclair, who doesn't have a goal but at least has taken 11 shots (unfortunately, zero have been on target). Given their prices, as well as the other teams on the slate, it seems fairly tough to justify any of them, at least in cash games, and that includes Jessie Fleming, who also scored against New Zealand too.

The Netherlands have a number of players worth considering in tournaments, including striker Vivianne Miedema, who is already their all-time leading goal scorer at just 22 years old. She's been a very solid player up front, taking nine shots in two games, but again, these are stats against the two worst sides in the group (a stipulation that applies to the Canadien players too). Lieke Martens and Shanice van de Sanden could theoretically be considered too, at least because of their low ownership, but it's tough to see a big breakout against such a strong defensive side. Sherida Spitse should be on set pieces again, but $6,800 on DraftKings seems like a lot for potentially a handful of opportunities (the Netherlands didn't win a single corner against Cameroon despite 61 percent possession).

The other two matches on the slate have significantly different situations, as all four of Cameroon, New Zealand, Chile and Thailand have zero points through two matches, but all four technically can make the round of 16. It would be the most ridiculous comeback in the history of sports if Thailand were able to win and qualify for the round of 16, and the oddsmakers are surely not expecting it to happen, as they're +1200 to beat Chile, who are -700 to win. It's an interesting position for Chile, who managed one shot (taken by Karen Araya) and one corner (taken by Claudia Soto) against the United States, and five shots (two for Araya and Francisca Lara, one for Maria Jose Urrutia) and zero corners against Sweden. On the bright side, Soto has had a full monopoly of Chile's corners this entire tournament; on the other side, she was pulled at half-time of the U.S. match after not even playing in the first. But that shouldn't stop us from looking for Chile's set pieces given they are such huge favorites. Lara is certainly a possibility, as is Soto if she starts, though Javiera Toro may also be in play. She's not overly cheap on DraftKings, but a $4,300 salary isn't so bad. If you're looking for goals here, Urrutia has the best anytime goal scorer odds on FanDuel Sportsbook at -120 followed by Daniela Zamora at +130 (at least among expected starters). The funny part about Zamora being so high is that she literally hasn't taken a shot in 180 World Cup minutes; it's amazing what playing Thailand can do. Chile's most expensive player on DraftKings is Yanara Aedo, who scored one fantasy point against Sweden and didn't play against the U.S., but she's +135 to score and should be extremely low owned because of her price. Then again, she could be starting for a team with an 87.5 percent chance to win.

I don't even know what to say about Thailand other than all of their players will be low owned except their center-backs on FanDuel because they're likely to get a bunch of clearances. And even then I'm not sure they're really all that attractive.

The other match among teams with zero points should be very different, as New Zealand are +135 to win on DraftKings Sportsbook while Cameroon is +195. Similar to Thailand and Chile, a draw would see both eliminated but a win would be a huge boost to clinching one of the four third-place spots. Brazil and China have already locked in their places, and Nigeria has three points with a minus-2 goal differential, which means three points is required to be in consideration. Assuming Chile defeats Thailand, Cameroon or New Zealand will have to finish with a goal differential better than Chile's and Nigeria's, or match Nigeria's and score more than two goals. Unfortunately, those have been hard to come by, as Cameroon scored one against the Netherlands while New Zealand couldn't get one past the Dutch and neither side scored against Canada. With a close match expected, we're seeing -117 on the over 2.5 goals but -112 on the under.

Gabrielle Onguene is the most expensive player in the match on DraftKings, but she's also only $6,100. She's a decent attacker who happened to score the goal against the Netherlands, but she's also +350 to find the back of the net against New Zealand. Gaelle Enganamouit actually has the best odds for the side at +260, which isn't really that great overall. I mean, sure, they need to score to win, but this match seems unlikely to be high scoring; of course, Scotland v. Argentina on Wednesday was like that and we ended up with six goals. The set-piece situation is also busy, with Ajara Nchout and Henriette Akaba each taking a corner off the bench against the Netherlands, while Genevieve Ngo Mbeleck was the only starter to take one, and Akaba got one off the bench in their opener against Canada while Gabrielle Onguene took two in that game as a starter. Like I said, it's busy.

Meanwhile, New Zealand's lone corner against Canada was taken by Ali Riley, while Ria Percival took their lone corner against the Netherlands. The latter is expected to start at right-back Thursday in place of the injured Catherine Bott, who is out with a broken wrist. Percival had been starting in the defensive midfield, so the move out wide theoretically could allow her to cross more in open play (she crossed twice in each of the first two matches). Pervical has been the most prolific fantasy scorer for the team, which really isn't saying much when she scored 6.0 and 4.5 in the first two games, respectively. That being said, she has a share of set pieces on a favored side for less than $4,000 on DraftKings. Meanwhile, Rosie White has the best anytime goal scorer odds in the game at +195, but she's managed just one shot in her two starts. Overall, both of these sides need to win, and while Cameroon seems to have more prolific attackers in terms of peripheral points, siding with them over Chilean attackers, who are in a much better situation, seems less optimal.