This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Coming out of an international break always feels like a blur. Even though I've paid attention to the news at national teams and injury situations, it feels like weeks have gone by without league matches. In reality, it's barely been more than a week and major things rarely happen that would change my thoughts on each team.
Record: 25-23. Up $461 on $100 bets.
Looking for more more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen bet on three matches, including the big showdown between Manchester City and Liverpool.
EPL Best Bets for West Ham United at Burnley
Burnley race to 5 corners against West Ham +130
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I've sworn off Burnley multiple times this season, but I keep coming back to them, whether in this article or in Kits & Wagers. I think at some point they'll turn things around and that's probably another couple months away.
No matter, you can still bet on them in other ways. As usual, West Ham are near the bottom of the table in terms of possession this season, while that's one thing Burnley don't struggle to do under Vincent Kompany. Winning this match or even taking a point from it may be difficult for the home side, but I think they'll have more possession and they should at least get opportunities.
In case West Ham score early and are up the majority of the match, I think you can get wild with this bet. Burnley race to nine corners is +750 and seven corners is +300. Playing it safe, I'm taking race to five corners at +130.
Of note, this bet was +140 on Tuesday morning and a few hours later it was +130. Grab it at a decent number while still available.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Newcastle United
Under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and Chelsea -105
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I'm writing this before any injury update from any team, including Newcastle who are hoping to get Alexander Isak back from injury. Isak or not, I think Newcastle try to play for another 1-0 win, similar to the Arsenal result from a few weeks ago.
The return of Bruno Guimaraes from suspension should help immensely and playing at home, I think that'll be just enough edge against a Chelsea side that suddenly has some scoring form. I still doubt the Blues have truly turned the corner, but they've played well and a 4-4 result against Man City is obviously a worry for this bet.
But Newcastle aren't going to play like Man City unless Eddie Howe has more confidence in his side than the last match. Given the upcoming schedule and injury list, I'm not sure where his confidence would come from.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at Everton
Under 2.5 goals between Everton and Man United +100
I might get yelled at for this take, but I think United started turning things around before the break. They were great against Copenhagen before the red card and they pretty much squashed anything Luton Town did in the 1-0, allowing just .41 xG. Of course, that's Copenhagen and Luton Town, so maybe everything shouldn't be put into those results.
Nevertheless, I think Erik ten Hag has figured out a few things in his midfield and defense, namely Scott McTominay turning into a regular. Everton are playing well and are on the heels of a 10-point deduction, yet I still struggle with how good they really are in the attack.
They've scored three goals in two of their last three matches, though it's hard to fully believe this Sean Dyche side is a free-flowing, score-when-needed group. At the least, they've allowed one goal or fewer in five of six home matches this season and I think this will be more of a defensive contest with neither side getting great chances in the box.
No on both teams to score at +130 is an option, but in case 1-1 hits, I'll side with under 2.5 goals.
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EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton Wanderers at Fulham
Fulham to beat Wolverhampton +135
There's a chance nothing happens in this match because it features two unreliable teams playing Monday night football. And that's kind of the only reason I'm on this bet since it's Monday night football at Craven Cottage. At home this season, Fulham have beaten inferior teams like Luton Town and Sheffield United, and probably should've taken at least a point from Man United in their last home game.
While Joao Palhinha is suspended, Craig Dawson is suspended for Wolves and I don't think Pedro Neto is ready to start just yet. There's a high chance this is an ugly match with few great opportunities, but I think it has the makings of a little brilliance from someone like Willian against a back line that is missing a regular and doesn't have a ton of depth.
EPL Parlay for Brighton & Hove Albion at Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth at Sheffield United
Parlay: Nottingham Forest double chance against Brighton (-150) + Sheffield United double chance against Bournemouth (-155) = +174
I haven't done a double chance parlay this season and there's no better time than now coming off a few dumb losses. I think Nottingham Forest should be close to favored in this spot, home against a struggling Brighton. Forest have taken points in every home match this season, which includes wins against Sheffield United and Aston Villa. Brighton are struggling to convert their chances and just dropped points at home against Sheffield United and the possible absence of Kaoru Mitoma only adds to that.
I initially had Tottenham here, but given their injuries, I think the Blades are a little safer. Sheffield United taken four points in the last two matches and should get a couple more regulars back from injury after the break. I don't think Bournemouth should be favored away to anyone and that includes this spot.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 13
- Burnley race to 5 corners against West Ham +130
- Under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and Chelsea -105
- Under 2.5 goals between Everton and Man United +100
- Fulham to beat Wolverhampton +135
- Parlay: Nottingham Forest double chance against Brighton (-150) + Sheffield United double chance against Bournemouth (-155) = +174
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
