Liverpool hope to take one step closer to the Premier League title Sunday when they host West Ham at Anfield.
Liverpool are coming off just their second Premier League defeat this season against Fulham last Sunday. The lead is still comfortable for Arne Slot's side as three points almost seals up Liverpool's second title in the last six years. They destroyed West Ham in the previous meeting and are well poised to do the same Sunday.
West Ham took a point from their last match against Bournemouth, but the performances under Graham Potter have not been great. They're clear of the relegation fight, but they've only picked up 11 points in the 11 matches that he's been in charge.
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Premier League Best Bets for Liverpool vs. West Ham
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Liverpool's offense has taken a bit of a step back over the past few matches, but this matchup could change that.
In the previous meeting, they routed West Ham 5-0 and did it by primarily building through the wide areas, namely with Mohamed Salah on the right wing. Once again, expect Liverpool to try and overload those areas to allow Salah to be one-on-one against the full-back.
Even though he's great at creating his own shot, Salah's also provided 17 assists for his teammates. Diogo Jota has been one of the main beneficiaries. He missed some time due to injury, but he's been playing the No. 9 role really well recently. He scored against Everton two matches ago and for the season has a 0.62 xG per-90 minute scoring rate, which is one of the highest in the Premier League.
I like the value on him to find the back of the net at -125.
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Betting on Player Shots
There are certain matchups where Salah can be held quiet. That usually happens when teams effectively press Liverpool high up the pitch and force them to play direct. When that happens, it can be hard to consistently get Salah on the ball.
However, West Ham will likely sit deep in a 5-3-2 and look to deny space through the middle, which will allow Salah to get into one-on-one situations out wide. He's incredible at creating his own shots from those situations and also finding space in the box to receive the ball.
In the previous meeting against West Ham, he took a whopping seven shots with four of them being on target.
I like the value on him to have over 3.5 shots in this match.
Betting on Team Total Goals
West Ham have struggled to create chances under Potter.
The main issue is that Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus have had to play as the two strikers due to injuries in the squad, and West Ham have struggled to build out of the back. When that didn't work, they were forced to play the ball long, they couldn't win many duels and in turn couldn't control the ball. They have a couple target men they can play to now in Evan Ferguson and Niclas Fullkrug.
Unfortunately, playing direct against Liverpool isn't easy because Virgil Van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate are incredible at winning duels.
Since Potter took over, West Ham are averaging 1.04 xG per 90 minutes and in the previous meeting against Liverpool, they only created 0.4 expected goals. I like the value on West Ham not to score in this match at +100.
Liverpool vs. West Ham Betting Picks
- Diogo Jota Anytime Goalscorer (+140)
- Mo Salah Over 3.5 shots (-110)
- West Ham Team Total Under 0.5 (+100)
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