This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
There are three gameweeks left and few teams have something major to play for, which never makes it easy to bet, especially before lineups and press conferences are out. If you want winning bets, listen to Kits & Wagers where I've been more successful this season.
Want more Premier League bets? Go to Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris examine three matchups in depth and give out a winning Team Parlay.
Record: 42-65-2. Down $1,762 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for AFC Bournemouth at Arsenal
SGP: Arsenal moneyline + Rice 1+ shot + Havertz 2+ shots + Saka 3+ shots = +155
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Arsenal are -185 to win by two goals, which seems disrespectful to Bournemouth, though I don't think anyone wants to bet Bournemouth +1.5 for just +135 odds. And so, I have to turn to a single-game parlay to get a bet I like, similar to what I've done in Kits & Wagers for recent Arsenal matches.
I don't think corners are guaranteed in this matchup, so I'm removing those from the equation. As long as Arsenal aren't playing a team like Tottenham or one who will contend for possession, it's a given they'll take at least 15 shots and probably more. Those 15 shots are usually left for the five most attacking players in Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Leandro Trossard, Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard, assuming the XI doesn't change.
Saka takes at least three shots almost every match, while Havertz has had multiple shots in all but the Tottenham and Man City matches of late. Rice and Odegaard are a little more unreliable due to their position, but I'm comfortable saying they both get at least one. Trossard is also unreliable because he'll be subbed off, but he's been getting plenty of shots, too.
I think my favorite SGP is Saka three-plus shots, Havertz two-plus shots and Rice one-plus shot to get to +155 with Arsenal moneyline. You can add to or tinker those numbers as much as you want, but I think that route is about as safe as you can go for plus odds. If you're feeling corners or a first-half goal, throw that in, as well.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Sheffield United
SGP: Nottingham Forest double chance + both teams over 3.5 corners = +115
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Nottingham Forest have been held scoreless in their last two matches, but they probably should've scored in both. Before that, they scored in five straight. Sheffield United have similarly been scoring while allowing a ton of goals as they're locked in to be relegated back to the Championship
Forest still have plenty to play for sitting 17th in the table and that could lead to another up-and-down match, which is how Sheffield United have been playing lately. They're showing a bit more in the attack while being left open for numerous easy goals allowed.
Over 3.5 goals is +140 odds or you can parlay over 2.5 goals with Nottingham Forest double chance for -120 odds. You can throw both teams to score into that bet for better numbers, as well.
However, I don't want to rely on the Blades having to score because I lost a similar bet on them against Brentford not long ago. That takes me to corners where I think they'll both get a decent amount. Throw in Forest double chance with both teams to get over 3.5 corners and it's plus odds.
EPL Best Bets for West Ham United at Chelsea
Both teams to score no draw between Chelsea and West Ham -110
David Moyes's tenure at West Ham may be coming to a close, so the final three matches may be more about how the players feel about their manager. They rebounded against Liverpool last week after the humiliating performance at Crystal Palace and without UEL to worry about, they should be fairly healthy, outside of maybe the back line.
Chelsea have a ton of injuries and had to play Tottenham on Thursday, but without European play, they haven't had many midweek matches this season. The absence of Enzo Fernandez may also be a blessing in disguise, as it gets them another attacking player onto the pitch, which helped them turn the tide against Aston Villa and perform well against Spurs.
I think betting Chelsea corners is smart in this spot since they're at home against a team that doesn't possess the ball. However, I think a simple both teams to score bet with no draw is the way to go. I give the edge to Chelsea, but I'm not sure I can get there with the moneyline and think a West Ham win is definitely in play, which is the main reason I'm taking this bet.
Similar to the Arsenal bet, throw in a couple shot props with both teams to score and you can probably get better odds. More so, take Chelsea moneyline if you're feeling really blue.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 36
- SGP: Arsenal moneyline + Rice 1+ shot + Havertz 2+ shots + Saka 3+ shots = +155
- SGP: Nottingham Forest double chance + both teams over 3.5 corners = +115
- Both teams to score no draw between Chelsea and West Ham -110
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
