This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The top and bottom of the table are taking shape, but the middle will likely remain a mystery throughout the season. Manchester United, Newcastle and Tottenham are outside the top 10, while Nottingham Forest and Brentford have surprised their way above them.
The heavy holiday schedule often separates deeper squads from thin ones, which means the real teams could further separate themselves in the coming weeks.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Adam also has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners.
Record: 25-25. Up $160 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Everton at Arsenal
SGP: Arsenal moneyline + 'No' both teams to score + Everton under 4.5 corners +125
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There are certain spots to bet Arsenal win to nil, and I unfortunately I haven't capitalized on that recently. I took moneyline and over 2.5 goals against Man United and then took both teams to score and over 2.5 against Fulham. Maybe I'm an idiot, but they had numerous goals called back in both contests.
This could turn into a 4-0 result, but I can't bet over goals in an Everton match. The Toffees got some extra rest after the Merseyside derby was postponed, but that doesn't mean they've improved their finishing in that time off. Taking away when they scored four set-piece goals against Wolves, they have zero goals in their last four matches.
I doubt they'll have much of the ball in this spot and it's hard to think they'll convert on the one or two chances they get. That also means they probably won't get many chances to accrue corners, so put that together to get a single-game parlay.
EPL Best Bets for Leicester City at Newcastle United
Newcastle -1.5 versus Leicester -114
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I'm not certain the last two matches mean that Leicester City are a better team than before, but they got points and that's what's most important. However, this is their first away match under Ruud van Nistelrooy and they allowed 47 shots the last two games, 17 of them on target. There's always the chance Newcastle can't find the back of the net despite getting chances, similar to recent games against Brighton and West Ham, but I don't want to play those games.
Newcastle are a better team, in need of a win and have the talent to rack up goals against an inferior team. Throw in midfield absences of Wilfred Ndidi, Harry Winks and Boubakary Soumare, and the Foxes are also shorthanded in their midfield.
Leicester have done some exciting things the last couple matches, but the signs point to Newcastle dominating the midfield, and in turn, the match.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Brighton & Hove Albion
Crystal Palace double chance at Brighton -115
These teams have been fairly even over the last month and while Brighton are at home, I'm not sure that's enough to list them as -110 favorites. While this is somewhat of a rivalry match, that doesn't mean Brighton will start defending better. They seemingly have the depth and talent to be a top-six side, but recent draws to Southampton and Leicester City leave more questions than answers.
Palace have come around since a bevy of injuries and their recent run of performances is a testament to Oliver Glasner keeping belief in his team. Also, having a healthier squad available helps. Eberechi Eze is back from his injury, while Jefferson Lerma and Cheick Doucoure are healthy at the same time and Will Hughes has been ever-present since Adam Wharton had groin surgery.
This has the makings of a 1-1 type of match and I prefer the Palace side since they're playing well and making fewer mistakes than Brighton.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 16
- SGP: Arsenal moneyline + 'No' both teams to score + Everton under 4.5 corners +125
- Newcastle -1.5 versus Leicester -114
- Crystal Palace double chance at Brighton -115
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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