This article is part of our FPL Bargain Bin series.
Well, this is it. Gameweek 38, the final installment in the 2014/15 season, will happen Sunday. It will give fantasy owners one last chance to make a run up their respective leaderboards before a shorter-than-normal offseason.
As for the Premier League, there is not really a whole bunch at stake. Goal differential between Arsenal and Manchester United means the top-4 is basically locked up (unless Manchester United can pull of a 7-0 victory and Arsenal goes scoreless). There is a battle for sixth place, which would be the final Europa League spot. However, should Arsenal win the FA Cup, that race will be moot. That leaves just the race to avoid relegation, which contains Newcastle and their two-point cushion over Hull City.
A look back in recent history shows a relegation race has not found meaning in Gameweek 38 since the 2011/12 season. Last season, West Brom had a significant enough goal differential that they had no serious concerns heading into the final match. And the 2012/13 campaign had the top 17 teams already at least four points clear of the bottom three. In fact, of the last six Premier League seasons, only three have had any kind of relegation battle heading into the final gameweek.
In terms of motivation and game plan on the final week of the season, there are two different options that could be in play for relegation-battling teams. There are the teams that are trying to hang on to return for another Premier League season, and there are the teams that are battling to move out of the relegation zone. It seems to be no different this season. Newcastle are desperately (though it has not appeared so) trying to hang on and avoid relegation while Hull City will be fighting for their Premier League lives.
What does this mean in terms of fantasy? Well, the varying gameplans can provide dramatic changes in opportunities for players in this final week. For instance, the 2011/12 season finale is a great example. Queens Park Rangers sat two points ahead of Bolton with one match to play and had a superior goal differential. This meant a draw in the final week of the season would secure their Premier League safety. A defensive-minded strategy would be expected in this situation and was exactly what happened. QPR went on to get outshot by Manchester City 44 – 3. They played so defensively that they allowed their opponent to take 44 shots. Of course it proved difficult to stop Manchester City over that number of shots and they ultimately lost but were saved by a Bolton squad playing for their lives. Bolton, as you would expect, pushed on the attack more than normal. They attempted 20 shots, which was nearly seven shots above their season average. However, the Bolton players were not the only offensive benefactors in that match. Bolton's attack allowed for their opponent, Stoke City, to also see an increase in shot attempts. Stoke City averaged just 9.9 shots per match in during that season, but that final week against Bolton they attempted 17. Bolton's strategy seemed to affect both teams and provide more attacking opportunities.
In fact, if you look at those relegation battles over the last six years, the teams that needed a victory went all-out on the attack and put up shot numbers that far surpassed their season averages. Birmingham City in 2010/11 is the exception by only attempting seven shots but Blackpool (2010/11) attempted 15, West Brom (2009/10) 17, and Middlesborough (2009/10) 18.
You can expect Hull City to have the same attacking urgency this weekend which could mean big things for players like Dame N'Doye, the now-healthy Nikica Jelavic and team assist leader Ahmed Elmohamady.
As for Newcastle, that picture is a bit muddier. A win is much more important since a draw or a loss lead to the same endgame should Hull City win. This would lead me to believe that Newcastle would be a bit more aggressive than normal as the surest way to obtain safety is by defeating West Ham. We'll get into a little more detail as we transition to the top bargain plays for Gameweek 38:
Goalkeeper
Victor Valdes
There is not a bigger proponent for picking a guy who is going to get a clean sheet than me. But this week, picking a clean sheet looks to be mighty difficult. Who knows what Chelsea plan to do against Sunderland, Manchester City get to face a Southampton team that just scored six goals in their last outing, and Liverpool travel to face a Stoke City team that plays well at home. While it appears clean sheets will be coming from less-dependable sources, there is one point-providing stat that should be a lock: saves. We know Hull City will be throwing the kitchen sink at Manchester United and Valdes (David De Gea will likely miss the season finale), which is great. The Tigers have struggled on the road, scoring just once in their last five away matches. It's hard to imagine Hull City scoring more than one or two, but it is easy to see Valdes making more saves than anyone in the Premier League this weekend. The clean sheet chance is still there, but the save opportunity looks fantastic.
Defender
Ryan Taylor
Can you name the defender with the most combined shots and assisted shots over the last three weeks? If you said Aleksandar Kolarov, you would be correct. He has five shots and six assisted shots in the last three weeks (all league-highs for defensemen). He has scored in the last two Manchester City home matches and is a fantastic play this weekend, except, he is too expensive to get a recommendation here. However, if you would have said Taylor just a bit ago, you also would have been correct. He is tied with Kolarov in both categories over Newcastle's last three matches, and he has picked up an assist. In a match where I would expect Newcastle to attack heavily, he becomes an interesting option. Plus, should Newcastle score first Sunday, they become an intriguing clean sheet option as they would likely park the bus in the hopes of securing victory and Premier League safety.
Midfielder
Marc Albrighton
Since the start of April, Leicester City has been on a remarkable run that has seen them collect 19 out of a possible 24 points to avoid relegation. They have done it with a fine mix of goal scoring and good defense. This leads in to a final week match against Queens Park Rangers. There is nothing at stake, as QPR are already relegated for next season, and it is difficult to envision a more open matchup this weekend. It should be entertaining and both attacks will likely be on display, which could mean big things for Albrighton. While on the run, Albrighton has been sending in a barrage of crosses. His 107 since April 1 are 26 more than the next closest player in the Premier League. Albrighton will likely be up to much of the same in a very open match against QPR and could be a likely candidate for an assist or two.
Forward
Ayoze Perez
Admittedly, much of this hinges on the status of Papiss Cisse, whose knee injury has relegated him to bench duty over the last two weeks and Perez had done just fine while Cisse has been out. Perez, in fact, has scored in both of Newcastle's last two home matches and will likely be leading an all-out attack by the Toons. Even if Cisse plays, Perez could still do some damage. And if Cisse does not play, Perez will likely take the bulk of Newcastle's shots as they attempt to avoid relegation. I'm not positive they actually win against West Ham, but I would not be surprised to see Newcastle attempt over 15 shots, which would give Perez a great opportunity to score in this final gameweek of the season.
