This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EDT)
- 1:00 pm: AFC Bournemouth vs. Newcastle United
- 1:00 pm: Arsenal vs. Norwich City
- 1:00 pm: Everton vs. Leicester City
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
THE CHALK
Youri Tielemans, LEI at EVE ($4,100): James Maddison ($10,000) is doubtful to play because of a hip injury, and Tielemans could take many of Leicester City's set pieces in a game they were initially favored in, though they're now slight underdogs. Tielemans was in the same situation for last weekend's FA Cup match against Chelsea when he finished with seven crosses and one chance created in a 1-0 loss. It's not huge production, but that would be solid for his Wednesday price, and the match against Everton should be easier than the Chelsea one. It's possible that Marc Albrighton ($5,400) could take set pieces if Maddison and Tielemans don't start, and given his history as a heavy crosser, he'd be a popular choice in cash games.
Lucas Digne, EVE v. LEI ($7,200): Digne is the most expensive defender on the slate, but as the dominant set-piece taker for a favorite, he's going to be owned. He is averaging 12.61 floor points per 90 minutes this season, which is more than three points higher than the next-highest expected starter, and that's Leicester City's James Justin ($5,000), who has played only 380 Premier League minutes. In fact, only Maddison and Norwich City's Emiliano Buendia ($8,700), who is not guaranteed to start, have averaged more floor points than Digne this season, and given that we have a number of viable value midfielders, paying up for the best floor player on the slate shouldn't be an issue.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, ARS v. NOR ($10,300): Aubameyang is the most expensive player on the slate, but he also has the highest anytime goal scorer odds while leading the line for the biggest favorite with the highest implied goal total. Nicolas Pepe ($9,500) is theoretically the safer cash-game play because of his role on set pieces, but Arsenal just don't produce many fantasy points from those situations, and his floor isn't really that much higher than Aubameyang's. With a dearth of good floor forwards, paying up for the guy most likely to score will be a popular move for those who pay down at midfield because they'll have the salary to do it.
MIDFIELDERS
Jonjo Shelvey, NEW at BOU ($5,900): The Maddison situation isn't the only one that can markedly change lineup construction, as we have a few opportunities to potentially get set pieces from players who cost up to $2,000 less than their potentially sidelined teammates. Shelvey has already been sharing set pieces for Newcastle, but he could get a bigger piece of the pie if Matt Ritchie ($7,700) sits because of a muscular issue. Norwich City are also in this discussion, as Ondrej Duda ($6,100) could be in control of their set pieces if Emiliano Buendia ($8,700) is not in the starting XI again, and while they are the biggest underdog on the slate, Arsenal aren't exactly defensive stalwarts. And speaking of Arsenal, Dani Ceballos ($6,300) has had a share of their set pieces recently, and if you're not paying up for Pepe then you can get some exposure to dead balls for the biggest favorite on the slate, even if he's not as much of an open-play fantasy-scorer as the other guys mentioned here.
Junior Stanislas, BOU v. NEW ($4,300): Stanislas was solid last week against Wolves, finishing with 8.0 fantasy points in 66 minutes thanks to a role on set pieces. His salary is up $1,000 since then, but he's still very under-priced if he can maintain that role. Harry Wilson ($6,600) seems to have lost his path to set pieces, with Stanislas and David Brooks ($4,800) the most likely candidates if they're in the first XI. Brooks isn't a bad play either at his price, especially against a Newcastle side that's allowed the most crosses, as well as the second-most corners, in the Premier League this season, but Stanislas is the move in cash games because he's cheaper.
DEFENDERS
Ben Chilwell, LEI at EVE ($6,200): Chilwell took some corners and free kicks in the FA Cup match against Chelsea this past weekend, and he makes for a solid play if you have the salary. Paying up for both Digne and Chilwell puts a lot of salary strain on those who don't want to pay down at forward, but the opportunity is there for plenty of free kicks, especially if Tielemans doesn't start (then again, that also takes out a potentially helpful value play). Paying up at both spots may not be overly popular in cash, but for lineups that do have two higher-priced defenders, it's likely to be Digne and Chilwell, as guys like Kieran Tierney ($5,700), Hector Bellerin ($5,200), James Justin ($5,000) and Seamus Coleman ($4,900) just don't do enough to justify their prices if you end up having to sacrifice elsewhere to get them. That being said, if we get a bit of a discount with someone like Christian Fuchs ($4,100) starting for Chilwell, there should be some interest.
Adam Smith, BOU v. NEW ($3,700): Smith continues to be the most-likely cheapest fullback, and while he doesn't bring much attacking upside, the price obviously helps that. Then again, if price is really the concern, why not save even more money and go with center-back teammate Nathan Ake ($2,900)? Their floors are very similar, Ake is more likely to score a goal from a set piece (likely a header in the box, not taking a direct free kick), and he provides a decent amount of salary savings. Oh, and he's playing against a Newcastle side that has the second-lowest implied goal total on the slate, which coincides with Bournemouth having the second-best clean-sheet odds.
GOALKEEPER
Emiliano Martinez, ARS v. NOR ($5,800): Martinez's viability comes down to whether you want to hedge a potential Arsenal-forward goal with the expectation that Martinez will be able to match it with a win and clean sheet. Arsenal are the biggest favorite with the best clean-sheet odds, but they also aren't that good of a team and are hardly a dominant defensive squad. The "upside" in that situation is that Martinez could have more save opportunities, but consideration for him is really about trying to pay up for those 10 fantasy points for the shutout victory. Otherwise, you can pretty much make a case for any goalkeeper on the slate, from Martin Dubravka ($4,500) and Aaron Ramsdale ($5,000) playing in a game with a very low implied goal total to Kasper Schmeichel ($4,600) away to Everton in a match Leicester City were favored in earlier this week.
