This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Welcome to Matchday 5 of the 2015-2016 Premier League season. This article is to guide you to an optimal squad for your $50,000 DraftKings salary. This article will cover the contests starting at 10am EST as it accompanies the big GPPs, though there are other contest offerings including the 7:45am game and the two Sunday games.The following games are included:
| Time EDT | Home (win odds) | (draw odds) | Away (win odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | Arsenal (3/10) | (9/2) | Stoke (9/1) |
| 10:00 | Crystal Palace (9/2) | (3/1) | Manchester City (8/13) |
| 10:00 | Norwich (7/5) | (23/10) | Bournemouth (2/1) |
| 10:00 | Watford (9/5) | (11/5) | Swansea (8/5) |
| 10:00 | West Brom (21/10) | (11/5) | Southampton (7/5) |
| 12:30 | Man United (19/20) | (12/5) | Liverpool (31/10) |
Step 1 in building a good lineup: make sure your players are starting. There is a bit of guesswork in projecting lineups until they are actually announced, and all recommendations and projections are subject to change based on this. All said, be sure to check out our starting lineups page approximately one hour prior to kickoff.
All stats to follow are derived from OPTA, though DraftKings uses STATS as their provider. The discrepancies are not massive, but they do exist.
You will not see a Liverpool player mentioned below because of the players themselves and their opponents this week. When looking for good plays you obviously target goal-scoring opportunities, but as any attuned DFS soccer player is aware, predicting goals is a tough. You know what is much more predictable and subject to substantially less variance? Peripheral stats, such as crosses, fouls drawn and shots. Getting a player with both high goal-scoring upside and good peripheral stats creates an optimal play.
So, what's wrong with the lads from Liverpool? Their individual players do not create these peripheral stats in abundance, and most certainly do not have them coming from one solid, reliable, fantasy-scoring source. Their top shot taker, Philippe Coutinho (with a solid 18), has serviced just one cross. Their top crosser, Christian Benteke (who only has one goal this season), hasn't serviced a cross all season. The closest thing this team has to a consistent source of peripheral stats is James Milner, and just two of his shots this season have been on target. If I haven't convinced you to fade Liverpool yet, this is the kicker: Manchester United has conceded the least amount of shots, crosses and chances in the Premier League this season. With a Liverpool player you are gambling on a goal with no peripheral stat insurance and doing so at Old Trafford against a United squad that has allowed just two goals this season.
Goalkeepers:
Petr Cech ($5,500): Cech is the most logical high-end goalkeeper, it's just really hard to see his Arsenal side not beating an out-of-form Stoke City coming of an abysmal display and two red cards last time out.
Maarten Stekelenburg ($4,700) or Lukasz Fabianski ($4,700): I really like both Southampton and Swansea this Saturday from an offensive standpoint, so by some derivative that would carry over to the goalkeeper too, right? Regardless of derivatives, both Stekelenburg and Fabianski are solid mid-tier priced keepers.
Defenders:
Cedric ($4,900): Cedric is the leading crosser in the Premier League. He is also tied with the top priced defender, Aleksandar Kolarov, for the most chances created among defenders with eight. Frankly, in terms of raw fantasy-point potential Cedric and Kolarov are far in front of the rest of the field.
Aleksandar Kolarov ($6,700): For reasons already mentioned, and unflawed logic from his performances this season, Kolarov is well deserving of his price. I think Cedric will return more fantasy points per dollar, and that is the only reason he's mentioned first.
Other defenders to consider:Matt Targett ($3,300), Bacary Sagna ($4,100), Kyle Naughton ($4,000), Simon Francis ($3,700), Nacho Monreal ($4,800), Luke Shaw ($5,100)
Midfielders
Jefferson Montero ($5,500): Nobody has been able to control Montero when on the pitch. He missed out on the Swans' last game with a thigh injury, but with seriousness lacking it's safe to expect he'll be ready to go after two weeks off. Montero has very high tendencies towards crosses, fouls drawn and assists, and Watford has no one to stop him from doing those things.
Aaron Ramsey ($7,100): Amongst the talented outfielders the Gunners have, Ramsey often gets lost in the shuffle. He hasn't scored yet this season, but he's been creating quality chances and taking a fair number of shots while providing consistent fantasy production with his four game totals of 8-11-10-9. Arsenal is hot favorites to take down a Stoke City squad that is not as defensively stout as it once was, and Ramsey is an affordable grab with high goal-scoring upside.
Kevin De Bruyne ($6,500): The young Belgian transfer from Wolfsburg is simply awesome. What's his exact role on Manchester City? How does Manchester City fit David Silva, De Brunye, Yaya Toure, et al into the midfield? I have no idea, but I do know De Bruyne can score, assist, create and play with the best in the world. For those who don't recognize the name, he scored the extra time dagger to push Belgium past the USA in the World Cup and set the Bundesliga ablaze last season.
Memphis Depay ($9,700), Dusan Tadic ($9,300) and David Silva ($9,200): They're the three highest-priced midfielders and deservingly so. I don't know whom to choose. Memphis and Tadic provide higher floors than Silva on peripheral stats, but it's honestly anybody's guess as to who scores the highest points of the trio.
Other midfielders to consider:Mesut Ozil ($8,300), Yaya Toure ($8,400), Jesus Navas ($6,500), James McClean ($3,200), Matt Richie ($5,200)
Forwards:
Sergio Aguero ($11,400): Aguero tallied three goals and four assists for his native Argentina over the international break, and it just seems like a matter of time before it all materializes in Premier League play. Crystal Palace has shown some offensive ability this season, but defensively they are mediocre at best. A brace wouldn't surprise.
Graziano Pelle ($9,000): After looking shaky in the preseason and first few weeks of the Premier League season, Southampton broke out to a decisive 3-0 victory over Norwich last time out. Pelle had eight shots in that outing, showcasing his multiple-goal-scoring upside.
Victor Ibarbo ($4,200): Possibly more famous for his outrageous pace in FIFA than in real life, it is worth mentioning the loanee from Roma could end up being a very productive Premier League wing. He's cheap, he's fast and there's no way to gauge his value yet.
Robert Brady ($4,500): It wouldn't seem beneficial to play a wingback in your forward slot, but Brady is atypical. He crosses the ball a ton and actually isn't afraid to take a swing at goal on occasion. He is a great cheap flex play for those low on cap space.
Other forwards to consider:Alexis Sanchez ($10,400), Sadio Mane ($9,100), Olivier Giroud ($9,300), Wayne Rooney ($10,500), Andrew Ayew ($7,200), Bafetimbi Gomis ($8,000), Cameron Jerome ($5,800), Callum Wilson ($7,000)
As a new feature I'm going to include a lineup every week to show a good way to incorporate my players to target:
