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MATCHES (EST)
10:00 a.m: West Brom v. Huddersfield
10:00 a.m: Liverpool v. West Ham
10:00 a.m: Bournemouth v. Newcastle
10:00 a.m: Burnley v. Southampton
10:00 a.m: Brighton v. Swansea City
12:30 p.m: Watford v. Everton
FORWARDS
Mohamed Salah, LIV v. WHU ($12,000): With no Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham or Arsenal on the slate, Liverpool stands as the only overwhelming favorite and Salah is their overwhelmingly best player, which naturally makes him the most expensive player by $2,100. He has scored more goals, taken more shots and put more shots on goal than any player on the slate, and he could have a monopoly of set pieces if the lineup works in his favor (at the very least, he'll have a share of corners). Fading Salah makes it much easier to build the rest of your lineup, but you're going against a player who has scored eight goals on 29 shots and assisted two others on 10 chances created in his last seven matches in all competitions. Roberto Firmino ($9,900) and Sadio Mane ($9,600) make for solid GPP targets, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($8,100) has some cash-game appeal if he starts, though less so if James Milner ($6,500, midfielder) is also in there.
Johann Berg Gudmundsson, BUR v. SWA ($7,400): There are a number of set-piece takers among the forward pool on this slate, and I think you can make a viable argument for each of them, which makes things much harder. Brighton's Pascal Gross ($7,900) playing at home against Swansea City, Bournemouth's Jordon Ibe ($7,300) at home to Newcastle, Everton's Gylfi Sigurdsson ($8,300) away to Watford and even Gerard Deulofeu ($6,500) are viable plays for cash games. I put Gudmundsson slightly ahead because we know he'll take all set pieces, something that has helped him send in the second-most crosses among players on the slate over the past eight gameweeks (in fairness, Gross is only one behind and Deulofeu hasn't been with Watford that long). Gudmundsson has scored at least eight fantasy points six times in the last seven games, and given his reliance on crosses, it's not bad that he's facing the team that's allowed the fourth-most in the Premier League over that span.
Jordan Ayew, SWA at BHA ($5,800): I'll be honest that I've been irrationally positive about Ayew this season and I have absolutely no idea why. He has no role on set pieces and he doesn't score a ton of goals, so why am I looking at this price and thinking "that's pretty good?" Ayew chips in with more defensive stats than most forwards, and he'll be leading the line against a Brighton side that's allowed the second-most shots and third-most crosses in the Premier League over the past seven games. He has numerous instances this season with multiple shots, shots on goal, tackles won and/or fouls drawn, giving him a non-cross-dependent floor that's hard to find.
MIDFIELDERS
James Ward-Prowse, SOU at BUR ($8,700): Paying this much for Ward-Prowse seems a bit nuts, but he's been doing it all for Southampton and now faces a Burnley side that has still allowed more shots and crosses than any other team this season. I hate getting carried away with goals, but Ward-Prowse has three in his last five games, more importantly taking multiple shots in each. It also hasn't diminished his crossing, as he's sent in 36 over that span, the most among players on Saturday's slate. Burnley may not be giving up a ton of goals this season, but they have also only had one clean sheet in their last nine league games. Paying up for Salah and Ward-Prowse is probably not optimal because it requires paying down at too many other spots, but that's said without knowing if any other value plays open up when lineups are announced.
Chris Brunt, WBA v. HUD ($6,700): West Brom are an absolute mess off the pitch, and while it's not drastically different on it, a home match against Huddersfield may be able to get them back on track. Choosing between Brunt and Matt Phillips ($6,200) is always tough for me, and it seems every time I decide to back Phillips because he does more in open play then Brunt picks up two assists. Phillips is cheaper and shoots more, so I would fault anyone for going his way, but Brunt gets a bigger share of set pieces and I'm willing to pay a little more for them. And while the West Brom attack hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard, Huddersfield come in having allowed 15 goals in their last six Premier League matches, more than any other side.
James Milner, LIV v. WHU ($6,500): Milner's spot in the starting XI isn't guaranteed, but if he gets the call ahead of Oxlade-Chamberlain then he could get a decent split of corners for the biggest favorite on the slate. This is more of a "Liverpool set piece taker" play than Milner himself, as his open-play contributions are pretty minimal, but with such overwhelming odds to win and score multiple goals, it's a worthwhile gamble.
DEFENDERS
Charlie Daniels, BOU v. NEW ($5,300): I'm not sure this is the slate to pay up for defenders, but if the salary is there then I'd consider Daniels, mostly because who knows what the Watford corner situation looks like, which makes it tough to rely on Jose Holebas ($5,400) in the late game. There will be consideration by some for the Liverpool fullbacks, but their prices require an least an assist (which isn't completely out of the question given their strong win odds) and likely forces you to pay down at midfield when there are a plethora of mid-range guys you can play. Daniels chipped in on corners last week, though he's capable of putting up a decent score even without them. Playing as a wingback will make him more valuable, though even at fullback I'd consider him. Speaking of which, if they do go with a back four and Simon Francis ($4,400) is at right-back, I'd happily pay down for him.
Martin Olsson, SWA at BHA ($4,100): Playing a Swansea defender away isn't for those who demand a clean sheet, though it's worth noting that Brighton have been shut out in half of their last eight league games (though not in their last three). Olsson's crossing numbers have been inconsistent this year, but he's the more active attacker among he and Kyle Naughton ($4,400), who I think is a reasonable play too.
Charlie Taylor, BUR v. SOU ($3,600): If you're looking for the cheapest (likely) starting fullback, here you go. Taylor had shown minimal returns before "exploding" for eight fantasy points against Swansea in Burnley's last Premier League matches thanks, in part, to a season-high six crosses, and he provides decent salary relief on a home team (albeit one that's an underdog). The clean sheet is never out of the question for Burnley, even if they haven't had one in a while, though Taylor's greatest benefit is his low price.
GOALKEEPER
Lukasz Fabianski, SWA at BHA ($4,400):Seriously, another Swansea guy? Yes, another Swansea guy. Fabianski comes into the weekend as the league-leader in saves, and he has a clean sheet in two of his last four games while allowing only one goal in each of the other two. New manager Carlos Carvalhal has greatly helped the Swansea defense, and a match at Brighton is hardly one I'd shy away from for defensive purposes.
