This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Welcome to Matchday 1 of the 2015/16 Premier League season. We have a new season on our hands, three newly promoted teams, a number of transfers and questions abound as to what it all means. This article is to guide you to an optimal squad for your $50,000 DraftKings salary (hint: you do not need to spend the entire salary cap).
Here the tournament headliners:
$40K EPL Kick-Off Special ($10,000 first prize), Entry Fee: $20
$10K Striker ($800 first prize), Entry Fee: $3
The following games are included:
Aston Villa at Bournemouth
Watford at Everton
Sunderland at Leicester
Crystal Palace at Norwich City
Swansea City at Chelsea
Step one in building a good lineup: make sure your players are in the starting XI. There is a bit of guesswork in projecting lineups until they are actually announced, and all recommendations and projections are subject to change based on this. All said, be sure to check the starting lineups upon their announcement approximately one hour prior to kickoff.
Goalkeepers:
Thibaut Courtois ($5,700)
Goalkeepers come in one of two breeds: your high upside types and your cash game staples. Courtois falls into the latter, and his ownership will likely be huge (and rightfully so). The reigning league champions not only allowed the fewest goals in the league last season, but they also had the best shots per goal ratio at just under 13 (next best is 11.8). This stat can be strongly attributed to the quality of the goalkeeper, and that quality undoubtedly emanates from the talented Belgian. The bookmakers side with Chelsea, quoting a 75 percent chance at victory, and recent history sides with the Blues as well after beating the Swans twice last season to an aggregate 9-2 scoreline.
Costel Pantilimon ($4,100)
Remember when I said there are two breeds of goalkeepers? Pantilimon falls into that high upside group. Despite being fairly poor defensively, Sunderland, anchored by Pantilimon, actually sported the second best (behind Courtois and Chelsea) shots:goal ratio in the Premier League last season. The bookies heavily favor Leicester City over Sunderland, so if Pantilimon and the new Sunderland defense with Younes Kaboul are going to stand a chance, it'll likely be due to some gifted goalkeeping. Take Pantilimon in a GPP on the chance he racks up a solid save count, but don't bet your mortgage in a 50/50 expecting him to return the high floor Courtois represents.
Defenders:
Simon Francis ($3,000)
Aligned along the right side with midfielder Matt Ritchie (more on him later), Francis was arguably the top right back in the Championship last season. His Bournemouth side is solidly favored over a Christian Benteke-less Aston Villa that is expected to be void of offense. Francis crossed the ball at a solid rate of around 4.5 per 90 last season (according to WhoScored.com), and is one of the better right backs at actually converting crosses into assists (accumulating a total of 14 over his past two seasons).
Pape Souare ($2,800)
After a strong preseason and glimpses of promise last season, 23 year old Souare is poised to man the left back position for Palace, which is good news for DraftKings players as Souare is beholden to the almighty cross. Given that Palace are underdogs, Souare should stand as a solid out-of-the-mold play if his side can rake a defensive bonus in addition to his expected cross total.
Leighton Baines ($6,500)
Baines will be extremely prevalent on the Everton left wing once again as it appears he is now healthy following an ankle injury. He should be high on the list of most crosses from defensemen, and his side is sharply favored, so a defensive bonus seems likely to boot. The lack of healthy left midfielders should only increase Baines' importance to the attack.
Midfielders:
Marc Albrighton ($5,200)
Albrighton is a proven crosser, ranking among the top applicable Premier League players in crosses per 90 minutes last season. His two goals and three assists were just a byproduct of being active on the field and any further stats in these heavily weighted categories act as a welcome bonus to Albrighton's contributions in the cross department.
Matt Ritchie ($4,900)
A league below in the Championship, Ritchie boasted possibly the best all-around stat line of any player with a 15 goals and an exemplary 17 assists. He plays on the right wing and averaged 6.4 crosses per 90 minutes (according to WhoScored) last season. For the first few weeks of this season any player on the newly promoted teams, along with new transfers, will be wild cards, but Ritchie's past performances give a hint to his possible production levels.
Nathan Redmond ($5,400)
Redmond is your stereotypical wing that should tally a high number of crosses, as he averaged a fairly remarkable 9.1 crosses per 90 last season in the Championship (according to WhoScored.com). Redmond doesn't have the goal and assist upside Ritchie has, but he may be a better cash game play as his points via crosses should ensure a fairly high floor.
Eden Hazard ($9,800)
Without Diego Costa who could very well miss out due to a hamstring injury, Hazard becomes the primary goal scoring threat for a team said to have a very strong 75 percent chance to win. If there were other expensive options I would possibly fade Hazard, but with no Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham, the lack of high price star power makes Hazard both easy to afford and hard to pass up. If you don't use Hazard (worth a shot in GPPs), don't fret about leaving a handsome sum of your salary cap on the table.
Forwards:
Romelu Lukaku ($9,000)
Lukaku has done the unthinkable and regressed in each of his three Premier League seasons: in 2012/2013 his goals per game rate stood at 0.76, 2013/14 it was 0.53, and last season was a measly 0.31. Maybe it was the ditching of the dreads that caused the bad voodoo in the Lukaku camp, but at the tender age of 22 it makes much more sense that we should expect bigger and better things this season. Everton hosts newly promoted Watford and are very solid favorites, quoted at around a 60 percent chance to win. A win means goals, and Lukaku is the most likely scorer.
Callum Wilson ($5,300)
That's now a Bournemouth player at each of three fielding positions; needless to say, I like their chances against Aston Villa. Wilson scored 20 goals and supplied seven assists in the Championship last season, and he is the player most likely to score for Bournemouth, according to the bookies.
Radamel Falcao ($7,200) or Loic Remy ($6,800)
Chelsea, in case it hasn't yet been beaten into your skull, is a HEAVY favorite. With Diego Costa's hamstring putting him in serious doubt, striker duties will likely fall to Falcao, Remy or a combination of the two in the form of the substitution. The idea that whomever ends up starting stands a good chance of being substituted off later in the game makes me hesitant to play either, but in the same breath would be naïve to completely overlook them. I consider Hazard a more solid play, as you know he'll at least give you a full 90 minutes.
Shinji Okazaki ($4,500)
The mask of unfamiliarity should shroud Okazaki to very low ownership. He is a transfer from Mainz 05 of the Bundesliga where he is coming off consecutive double-digit goal scoring seasons. He's scored in a Leicester City uniform during the preseason and is a sneaky pick to take up top goal-scoring responsibilities for the Foxes (he'll have to take over incumbents Jamie Vardy and Leonardo Ulloa to do so).
