This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
For Tuesday's two-game slate, Spain are the biggest favorite against Morocco, while Portugal are approximately even money favorites against Switzerland. Neither Spain nor Portugal are overwhelming favorites and each match has a 2.5-implied goal total. I think this means all teams are in play for tournaments and it will be particularly important to script out how you are projecting each game to go when building your lineups.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: Morocco vs. Spain
- 2:00 pm: Portugal vs. Switzerland
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
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FORWARDS
Dani Olmo ($9,400, ESP vs. MAR): Olmo played 90 minutes in each of Spain's group stage games and took all but one of their set pieces. In open play, he has amassed 10 shots with five on target. His role for the biggest favorite makes him a near lock in cash games. Normally, I would feel fine about fading Olmo in GPPs since his goalscoring odds are +275, but his floor alone could land him in the optimal lineup, especially if there are only three or four goals between both games.
Cristiano Ronaldo ($7,800, POR vs. SUI): Ronaldo was bad against South Korea, recording only two shots and getting subbed off after 65 minutes. I'm willing to look past that poor performance, especially at this price, since Portugal rotated their team having already secured their spot in the knockouts. Ronaldo has a floor based on shots, will take Portugal's penalties and is tied with Alvaro Morata ($8,700) for the highest goalscoring odds on the slate. You could also use Joao Felix ($7,900) as your second forward in cash games, but I think they have similar floors with Ronaldo more likely to score.
In tournaments, Ronaldo's presence at his price should siphon away some rostership of Alvaro Morata and Ferran Torres ($8,200). Bernardo Silva ($5,700) has not been in an advanced role, but he is quite cheap. He has taken some corners for Portugal and still has goal upside. If you want to look to the underdogs, I like Sofiane Boufal ($6,200) and Youssef En-Nesyri ($5,400). Boufal is unfortunately likely to be subbed early. I bet almost no one will want to play Breel Embolo at $7,100, but there are only two games and he is worth a flier in tournaments.
MIDFIELDERS
Bruno Fernandes ($9,200, POR vs. SUI): Fernandes was rested in Portugal's final group match and is going to be a priority in cash games. He has taken on a more attacking role for Portugal, logging six shots and ten crosses and I expect him to take most of their indirect set pieces. His nearby priced alternatives Hakim Ziyech ($8,000) and Xherdan Shaqiri ($7,700) seem too expensive, and I will likely treat them as tournament options only.
Ruben Vargas ($4,900, POR v SUI): Switzerland are underdogs, but Portugal have allowed their opposition opportunities in prior matches. Even though he'll probably be subbed off around the 80th minute, this looks like a good price for Vargas, who should take Switzerland's left-sided set pieces. I discussed Bernardo Silva as a forward option, but he is midfield eligible, too. With few other midfield options, that could be a solid cash game route.
There is very little to write home about for low-priced midfielders. In this type of situation, I try to look for players on favorites that could serve as the last piece in a game stack or just offer five or six floor points. For Spain, Pedri ($4,400) has created four chances in three matches and Sergio Busquets ($3,400) could end up with an assist. Portugal's Ruben Neves ($3,500) is capable of the spectacular long-range goal but will probably be subbed off after 75 minutes.
DEFENDERS
Jordi Alba ($6,500, ESP vs. MAR): Alba is expensive, but I might try to spend up twice at defender with few options at midfield who I want to play. He already has two assists and I think he is worth prioritizing in tournament lineups where you speculate that Spain are chasing the game after a Morocco goal.
Joao Cancelo ($5,300, POR vs. SUI): I'm not sure who the starting full-backs will be for Portugal, but I think they are all favorably priced. I would certainly like to play one of them. Raphael Guerreiro ($4,800) is too cheap if he starts, but Diogo Dalot ($5,400) was active against South Korea with four crosses and an assist and may be rewarded with another start. If that's the case, I like Cancelo even more. He is right footed and is more likely to cut inside and shoot when lining up on the left. If Guerrerio ends up starting, I prefer him to Cancelo.
Nothing really sticks out to me on the low end for defender. Dani Carvajal ($4,000) is probably slightly underpriced, but he doesn't attack much. Ricardo Rodriguez ($3,900) has a chance to take penalties for Switzerland, making him a good tournament option. The Portugal center-backs seem underpriced and Ruben Dias is a fine punt at $3,000 if he starts.
GOALKEEPERS
Unai Simon ($5,600, ESP vs. MAR): I try to spend up at goalkeeper on two-game slates and Spain's 46-percent clean sheet odds stand out enough that I think it makes sense to prioritize Simon.
Yann Sommer ($4,100, SUI vs. POR): I think Portugal are more likely than Spain to attempt several shots on goal and Portugal players are more likely to shoot from distance than their Spanish counterparts. This makes me prefer Sommer to Yassine Bounou ($3,900) as the spend-down option at goalkeeper.
