This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: AFC Bournemouth vs. Chelsea
- 10:00 am: Manchester City vs. Leeds United
- 10:00 am: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Crystal Palace
- 10:00 am: Wolverhampton vs. Aston Villa
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Erling Haaland (MCI vs. LEE, $11,300): I take no pleasure in reporting that Manchester City are by far the biggest favorites of this four-game slate and I take even less pleasure in reporting that Haaland is -400 to score at least one goal against Leeds. I've rarely seen goalscoring odds like that outside of Champions League, but Haaland is a generational talent and has been scoring goals all season. He is expensive and doesn't have much of a floor, but his median outcome includes a few shots and a goal, so I think it is difficult to fade him in cash games.
From a tournament point of view, even if Haaland scores one goal, I don't think he will necessarily be in the winning lineup at his price. Additionally, Leeds may prove to be a difficult nut to crack under new manager Sam Allardyce and it is very possible Haaland is subbed off early so that he is rested for a semi-final leg against Real Madrid on Tuesday.
Riyad Mahrez (MCI vs. LEE, $9,700): City have by far the highest-implied team total of the slate at more than 2.50, so I think it makes sense to focus on playing the other City forwards whether you fade Haaland or not. Mahrez offers significant savings on Haaland along with a more stable floor and I think he will be a popular second forward partner with Haaland in cash games. Phil Foden (10,300) hasn't started since March and I think he also offers enough floor and upside to outscore Haaland even if he does get a goal. You just can't count on him playing a full 90 minutes.
Tottenham are favored at home hosting Crystal Palace and Harry Kane ($9,500) has the best goalscoring odds among non-City favorites. He should see lower than usual rostership with the presence of the Manchester City forwards, but he has the ceiling to outscore them, as well. If I roster Kane, I'm interested in pairing him with another Palace forward. It is easy to imagine Wilfried Zaha ($8,000) terrorizing Spurs' porous defense and he can put up 25 fantasy points from just one goal.
Dango Ouattara (BOU vs. CHE, $5,800): I'm not nervous about targeting Bournemouth players in their home matchup against Chelsea, even if they are slight underdogs. Chelsea have allowed plenty of opportunities to their opponents under Frank Lampard. For example, in a similar matchup where Chelsea visited Wolves last month, Wolves players recorded nine shots, 26 crosses and 8 corners as a team. Ouattara is an active shooter and crosser whenever the ball comes his way and I think he should hit a solid floor. His price and forward eligibility help free up the salary needed to play Kevin De Bruyne in a midfield spot should he start. If you need even more salary, Diego Costa (3,900) has absolutely no floor, but he is a viable option due to his pricing.
I think there is a chance that Ollie Watkins ($7,700) and Dominic Solanke ($7,600) go overlooked due to their pricing. It's just difficult to imagine the field getting to the $7,000 price range at the second forward spot in large-field GPPs. Both are away from home and haven't been in the best form, but their matchups are solid and their goalscoring odds are very respectable.
MIDFIELDERS
Kevin De Bruyne (MCI vs. LEE, $10,000): De Bruyne has missed the past two games due to an injury, but he has trained in some fashion Thursday and Friday. This makes it seem likely that he will start, but there will be some uncertainty in how many minutes he plays, especially with a semi-final to play Tuesday. De Bruyne would be a slam-dunk play in all formats if I knew he was playing 90 minutes. He is still a solid option if he plays 70 minutes, but there is enough uncertainty in his situation and alternative options at midfield that I don't consider him a must.
John McGinn (WOL vs. AVL, $5,500): There are strong midfielders priced in the $5,000-$6,000 range and McGinn is my favorite option in this group. He has been excellent as a right midfielder the past four matches, registering two shots in each of those starts and drawing a surprisingly high 18 fouls. It appears that his positional change has also given him more corner-kick opportunities, too.
Ryan Christie ($5,000) has taken over as Bournemouth's majority set-piece taker and he has logged at least seven fantasy points in four of his last five starts. Noni Madueke ($5,600) scored his first goal for Chelsea midweek and the winger has averaged 1.7 shots, two shots assisted and 2.4 crosses per 90 minutes in his limited time for Chelsea this season. Finally, Ilkay Gundogan ($6,200) is fairly affordable for a City piece. This automatically makes him GPP viable, but he only has 13 touches in the opponent's box over his past four matches, which suggests that he has not been making as many forward runs lately.
Pedro Neto ($3,600) probably deserves to be highlighted at his near-floor price, but I am not certain he will start. If he does, he is a great cash-game option. He registered just over eight fantasy points last weekend while playing 83 minutes. That was a bit surprising, since Neto has been a near-lock to be subbed off at halftime since returning from injury. He didn't take any set pieces, but he supplies enough open-play value that I don't think it matters at this price. If he doesn't start, I'd be fine playing N'Golo Kante ($3,900) or Joao Gomes ($3,400) instead so I can afford to spend up at forward and defender.
DEFENDERS
Pedro Porro (TOT vs. CRY, $6,600): Porro has found his form for Spurs, with the January window signing logging seven shots, four shots assisted,and 17 crosses in his past three starts. He has taken all but one of Tottenham's corners in the past three matches, as well. While I wouldn't be surprised if Son Heung-Min or Ivan Perisic took a few set pieces, I think Porro will maintain at least a partial role on with upside to continue as a corner-kick monopolist.
Ben Chilwell (CHE at BOU, $6,300): Like Porro, I expect at a minimum that Chilwell will continue to have a partial role taking Chelsea's set pieces. A visit to Bournemouth is a positive fantasy matchup for any team, but it's difficult to ignore Chelsea's recent offensive struggles. Chilwell has been much more productive at home than away this season, as well. For example, he's averaged over seven crosses per 90 minutes at home versus 3.5 crosses per 90 minutes away. I'd like to play both Chilwell and Porro, but if I could only choose one, I would go with Porro and one of the options below.
Hugo Bueno (WOL vs. AVL, $4,100): After a stint on the bench, Bueno has started the past two matches, playing 79 and 90 in each. He's also logged two corners and shots assisted along with at least four crosses in each of those matches. Wolves' matchup at home against Aston Villa isn't spectacular, but I still think Bueno projects well at this price.
In GPPs, I will build a couple lineups with Matias Vina ($4,300) if he starts for Bournemouth. He is an attacking minded right-back who has logged five shots in his last three starts and I think he makes for a sensible pivot from Bueno in lineups that feature other Bournemouth attackers.
Some roster constructions will require a punt at the second defender position. Ruben Dias ($3,200) didn't get priced up like the other City center-backs and he is too cheap for his clean sheet odds. Neither Cesar Azpilicueta ($3,000) nor Toti Gomes ($2,600) are guaranteed to start, but both are cheap for full-backs.
GOALKEEPER
Neto (BOU vs. CHE, $4,400): If salary wasn't an issue, I would love to play Ederson ($5,900) since his clean sheet odds are just under 47 percent. If I don't have the salary for Ederson, Chelsea have scored just five goals in their last six league matches, including just one goal in the month of April. Because of this, I am perfectly content playing Neto as the cheapest home goalkeeper.
