This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
It's a bit strange seeing Newcastle favored against Chelsea and priced accordingly in Showdown. At the same time, it's tough to disagree with the odds. Newcastle are in great form and playing well offensively, while Chelsea are 1-2-2 in their last five matches in the Premier League with only four goals.
From a fantasy standpoint, Chelsea are even more frustrating with their starters frequently subbed off early and a set-piece situation that changes almost every match. I think most people are going to rightly look to Newcastle players in both cash games and tournaments, but they are not massive favorites. That might open up some opportunities in tournaments if the field is underestimating a Chelsea side that still has plenty of talent.
12:30 pm: Newcastle United vs. Chelsea
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Showdown of the Week EPL Cheat Sheet
CASH GAME STRATEGY
Kieran Trippier ($9,400) looks like the shoe-in, cash-game captain. He will take most (if not all) of the Newcastle set pieces and has the safest floor. He has failed to eclipse 10 DraftKings points once this season and that came away to Liverpool. Mason Mount ($8,200) is cheaper than usual, as well. Chelsea are impossible to predict for set pieces, but it is usually safe to assume that Mount will at least have a partial role.
Outside of Trippier and Mount, there are no players that have any sort of reliable floor. Callum Wilson ($10,400) stands out for his goalscoring odds of +140 and takes Newcastle's penalties. He sat Wednesday during the league cup and left last Sunday's match early due to illness, so it will be important to monitor that situation. Miguel Almiron ($10,800) has the next highest goalscoring odds at +230 and he has been on fire with six goals in his last six matches. As the most likely scorers for the favored Newcastle, I think it is worth paying for at least one of them.
You can also consider Bruno Guimaraes ($8,800) and Raheem Sterling ($7,800) in cash games, but I feel like Guimaraes is a bit too expensive for his floor and goalscoring odds of +350. Sterling has at least been taking some corners lately and has better goalscoring odds at +275. However, you can't trust Chelsea set-piece takers and I'm not sure how much you should trust those odds since he only has five shots on goal in his last 12 starts.
I'm not particularly inspired by any of the other mid-priced options. The most enticing options are goalkeepers Nick Pope ($7,600) and Edouard Mendy ($6,200). In slates without clear floor plays, you'll see goalkeepers rostered in cash; two saves and a win can keep up with players in this range and they also have access to useful ceiling games. Jacob Murphy ($5,800) will be interesting if he starts at left forward, but he is a risk to be subbed off before the 70th minute. I am obliged to mention Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($5,000) is very cheap with +250 goalscoring odds. That's not a route I'd consider, but I think others will.
There isn't much value in the lower range. Jorginho ($4,200) is always viable due to his penalties. Dan Burn ($3,600) will often start at left-back, but he offers almost nothing moving forward. If Wilson isn't fit, Chris Wood ($4,200) might start and would be underpriced. Finally, Ruben Loftus-Cheek ($3,200) isn't projected to start, but if he does, he would be the best salary relief option.
Putting it all together, I'm expecting Trippier to be the most popular captain and would expect him to be played with Mount and one of Almiron or Wilson. Outside of that decision point, I think your success in cash will be determined by which two mid-ranged players discussed above you play them with.
TOURNAMENT STRATEGY
I found it striking while writing up cash game strategy how few trustworthy players there are. In tournaments, I expect this to have a few effects in terms of lineups. I think Trippier, Almiron, Wilson and even Pope are going to see high utilization in the captain. Chelsea have been bereft offensively under Graham Potter, so I also think we'll see those combinations of players in 1-0 Newcastle constructions, as well. I think it's fine to take one of those routes in tournaments, but you will want to be mindful that the field is likely thinking in a similar way and try to find some low-rostered pieces to stand out. One example along these lines might be Kai Havertz ($6,400). Aubameyang has better goalscoring odds at a lower price, so I think there is a chance he goes overlooked.
If Almiron and Wilson figure to be popular, I want to take some shots with Guimaraes in the captain spot. He hasn't been taking as many shots on goal this season as he did last campaign, but he is certainly still capable of high-ceiling performances. You can even include him as your goalscorer in 1-0 constructions to differentiate yourself from the field if you want to go down that route.
Even if Chelsea have been unreliable in fantasy and are in poor form lately, they still have a respectable 31-percent implied win probability. One way to deal with Chelsea uncertainy is to play a 1-0 construction with Mendy in the captain spot. Unless Mount is the goalscorer, I think he is likely to outpace his teammates in fantasy scoring in this game script. Trippier is the only Newcastle player with a reliable floor, so you can fill the rest of your lineup spots with Chelsea attackers so that you have more opportunities to roster the goal-assist combination.
Finally, Jorginho is always in play in the flex and as a captain option if he converts a penalty. Chelsea players aren't very expensive, so I think Jorginho captain lineups are best suited for lineups where Newcastle score as well and you want to roster multiple expensive players together, such as Wilson and Almiron.
