This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Don't make stupid bets. That's only a reminder for myself after I got a little too confident and took Norwich to win last week. I stand by my reasoning, but it was a stupid play however you look at it. Fortunately, I hit on my final few bets of the gameweek and still turned a positive.
Take away the dumb be; take away the Bruno Fernandes miss; take away the Man City domination of Chelsea; take away all of those things and it was a perfect weekend. Easy enough, right?
Record: 30-12-1. Up $2,158 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
I still don't believe in Everton. They maybe dominated Norwich, but they couldn't beat QPR in the League Cup and managed one shot on goal in a 3-0 loss to Aston Villa before that. Manchester United aren't playing well, but I'd rather take them at home against a team that's still playing without their best two strikers. Instead of simply taking the moneyline at -205, I'll grab Man United -1.5 at +155. They have the firepower to rack up goals, and while that hasn't often been the case in the early season, I like this matchup. Everton are playing counterattack-or-bust, and while that's great against Norwich and Burnley, giving that many opportunities to Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes probably won't end as well.
I was going to take under 2.5 goals (+105) between Chelsea and Southampton but realized that's not the play in this matchup. While I still like it, I was burned by taking the Chelsea under against Tottenham a couple weeks ago. Instead, I'll ride their defense and get better odds with Chelsea to win in a shutout at +115. Chelsea are coming off a league loss to Man City and know they have to bounce back, even with a busy schedule. Southampton haven't scored in their last three matches and managed one shot on target (a Takumi Minamino goal) at home when these teams met in February.
The odds don't seem to be catching up with how Wolves are playing. They won last weekend, but they're struggling to get consistent opportunities in front of net, no matter the competition. While I think they're better than Newcastle and more likely to win, I'd rather bet on one of these teams to get a clean sheet, if not both. One team has failed to score in every Wolves match this season. While it's been almost the opposite for Newcastle, I don't think either of these teams is guaranteed to score even if they managed 10 shots on target. And so, I'll take 'No' on both teams to score at -115.
This Burnley-Norwich match has to be the trap of all traps. There have been more goals in recent Burnley matches, but a lot of that is because of opponent. Then again, while Norwich only have two goals, they've allowed 16 in five games. I usually pass on games I waver on, but I feel like this one will have an obvious result and we'll be disappointed to not have money on it. Burnley won both league matches 2-0 two seasons ago, and I think that's how this one will go. Norwich have no idea how they want to play or what formation they want to use, and playing a team like Burnley probably won't help. While I like under 2.5 goals at -105 and 'No' on both teams to score at -105, I kind of like the Burnley shutout win a little more. You can get that at +210 and I think it's worth the risk because of Norwich's early struggles.
Speaking of unders, Brighton and Arsenal is a perfect spot to get decent -125 odds for under 2.5 goals. These teams are fairly similar in how they play. If the matchup is right, they want to control possession and, more often than not, that doesn't lead to goals. They'll get chances and look like the better team in most games, but they'll struggle to hit the back of the net. They combined for 11 shots on target in two meetings last season (eight for Arsenal), totaling three goals, all for the Gunners.
People like to make fun of Arsenal, but now that the schedule has eased up and they've gotten everyone healthy, they're playing well. I don't see Brighton getting many opportunities in this match and likewise for Arsenal on the other end. Arsenal at +155 is enticing, but I'll stick with the under.
There is a nice Sunday parlay if you're into that sort of thing, but I'm fine taking Aston Villa +.5 (-130) and Liverpool pk (+110) by themselves.
For Tottenham and Aston Villa, I see another low-scoring game between two teams that haven't been consistent. Villa haven't allowed a goal in their last two and are playing things tight with this new 5-3-2 formation. Nothing about Tottenham's form suggests they'll score multiple goals in this spot. They have four goals in six matches and you can get them at -130 for under 1.5 goals. I think under 2.5 goals overall at -110 is also a worthy play. That being the case, I still like Villa to win or draw the most because there is a situation in which they win 2-1 or 3-2.
Liverpool are in the same situation Chelsea were in last weekend. While that didn't work out, I have slightly more trust in Liverpool because they aren't afraid to go after Man City's back line. I've said this before, but Liverpool are closer to their form from the 2019/20 campaign, and that's when they won this matchup 3-1 at home. I think +185 to win is worth a shot, but you can play it safe and get them at +110 for a pk and get your money back if it's a draw.
*At some places, I've noticed draw no bet has worse odds than a pk bet even though they are the same thing. The same goes for win or draw and +.5. These are the little things to monitor in soccer betting.
