This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
As expected, there's been a massive regression to the norm in terms of Premier League goal scoring. Since 44 goals were scored in Gameweek 2, it's been downhill since, culminating in 19 in Gameweek 6. Unsurprisingly, a lot of that is due to the massive number of games, with a lot of teams playing midweek taking a more defensive approach, highlighted by new lineups and formations, namely from Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United.
That led to seven of 10 matches with two or fewer goals, meaning the under hit in almost every contest. Every gameweek isn't going to be the same, but at least things are back to normal since the scoring fest of the first few weeks. Maybe it was fun to watch, but it was also hard to project and difficult on the pocket books.
LAST WEEK
Unfortunately, I chose the wrong places to bet last week. Leeds United got a once-in-a-lifetime performance from Patrick Bamford in what looked to be a for-sure winner to hit under 2.5 goals. I also didn't make West Ham +1 one of my official plays, which was an unfortunate decision.
That combined with the over bet between Chelsea and Man United didn't work. Not that I could project both would take up different strategies midweek, which resulted in a scoreless draw Saturday. Plus, when I wrote the article last Tuesday, Edouard Mendy was a doubt to play and neither team had played with three center-backs.
At the least, I hit another parlay, which seem to be the only thing keeping me in the green, now at 4-2 overall.
THE WEEK AHEAD
I don't like betting on Crystal Palace, but the odds aren't right. Wolverhampton were -120 against Newcastle last weekend and they almost lost. Wolves should be closer to +120 in this match than the -107 they are as of Tuesday. They've yet to play a complete match this season and it's not like playing at home helps, as seen in the Newcastle draw and the one goal needed to beat Fulham despite being out possessed.
It's been a bit different for Palace, as they've been competitive in almost every match. They battled Everton to the final minute and let things get away from them in the second half against Chelsea. This game will be competitive, and I'll take the form of Wilfried Zaha and a tough back line over a team that hasn't clicked. It's a perfect spot for Crystal Palace -112 to win or draw.
That's where I'm leaning for a majority of these matches because fewer goals means closer matches that are more likely to be draws (four of 10 matches were draws last gameweek).
Southampton and Arsenal are the other underdogs I like for a win/draw, but because their odds are a little smaller, they may be better parlay pieces. For Southampton, they're -162 to win or draw against Aston Villa. Instead of taking that route, I'm going Southampton -105 to score first.
For starters, the odds aren't correct in this matchup. Villa are playing well, but they were a bigger favorite against Leeds United and lost 3-0. In two matchups last season, the Saints won by a combined 5-1 score line. Most notably, Southampton were a +180 underdog when they won 3-1 at Villa last December. That was a long time ago, but Southampton are playing just as well as Villa and there is minimal home-field advantage at the moment. I think Danny Ings is a better, more consistent goal scorer than anyone on Villa and I'll take the close to even odds for them to score first.
I'm not as confident in Arsenal and I'll probably skip that match since they and Man United play midweek, and I don't want to fall into that trap again. However, I think West Ham are worth another play as they continue to be underrated. I'm slightly worried about Michail Antonio's hamstring, but the Hammers haven't dropped three points in their last three matches, including two against Man City and Tottenham. Liverpool used a different lineup Tuesday, but they haven't been playing like last season's squad, and that's where this bet comes in. West Ham +1 gets you +165 odds and if you want to play it safer, +1.25 is +118. If you removed their names and only looked at recent results, the moneyline odds would be closer to a pick 'em. While Liverpool have rebounded since their Aston Villa defeat, it's not like they dominated Sheffield United, a team playing like one of the worst in the league. When Liverpool were at their peak last season, they were -700 home favorites against West Ham and needed an 81st-minute goal to beat West Ham 3-2.
I'm jumping on the under craze with Fulham and West Brom to finish under 2.5 goals (-125). Both teams have been much more defensive in their last two matches, and I'm not sure either has enough in them to score multiple goals, at least if they continue their current strategies. Fulham have looked better with new additions, while there have been four total goals in West Brom's last three matches. If you feel like it's a trap similar to last week's Palace and Fulham match, putting under 3.5 goals (-345) into a parlay is also an option. These teams also combined for two goals in two Championship matchups last season.
Looking back through the odds, I also have a feeling Burnley are going to be a problem for Chelsea. I don't want to go all out and take Burnley +530 to win, but I'd keep it in mind if you're feeling confident. Burnley had more shots on target and chances created than Tottenham on Monday, while Chelsea were in Russia on Wednesday. Burnley are still having trouble scoring, which is why I'm hesitant, but you can definitely throw them into some kind of play. They are +163 to win or draw and +102 at +1.
THE BETS
Crystal Palace to win or draw -112
Southampton to score first -105
West Ham +1 +165
Parlay: Southampton win/draw (-162), Fulham/West Brom under 3.5 goals (-345), Burnley win/draw (+163) = +450
