This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's the international break, but it's not time to settle. It's never time to settle. There have been 30 gameweeks and while they range from four matches to 14, I broke down the number of goals scored per gameweek. The average amount of goals scored in the first 15 gameweeks is 2.75 and the average for the next 15 gameweeks is 2.84. It's not a huge difference, but it's something.
Looking at gameweeks that follow international breaks, the average of goals scored per gameweek has been 2.3, 3, 3.6 and most recently 2.78. In eight of the last 15 gameweeks, the average number of goals per match has surpassed 3.1.
Maybe there's nothing to take away from the numbers, but it seems like legs (and back lines) are getting tired and that's been evident in certain sides like Brighton and Southampton, neither of whom are playing similar to earlier in the season. Brighton have lost their last six and Southampton have lost their last four. While those teams could figure things out in the next month, there could be other teams that completely go off the rails. Norwich are in that spotlight, having lost their last five, and sitting four points behind at the bottom is unlikely to help motivation.
I'd keep my eye on West Ham, who don't have a deep team yet have to deal with the Europa League quarter-finals against Lyon. They rotated a lot in group stages, but as seen in the legs against Sevilla, there won't be much rotation for those midweek matches, if possible.
Record: 75-70-6. Up $939 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
Burnley need points. They sit in 19th place, four points behind Everton in 17th place and they can't afford to sit back. Unfortunately, it's been that way the last few matches except they haven't scored in their last three. Making things worse, they haven't scored in their last five meetings against Manchester City. While City could rotate some with an eye toward Champions League, I don't think that'll matter. Man City are still fighting at the top of the table and they dominate this matchup, which is why I'm going for a win to nil at -120. I've taken this bet in the past and there's no reason not to continue that route. Worse for Burnley is that City have won the last nine meetings by a combined 32-1 scoreline. Let that sink in.
I've been a glutton for punishment the last couple articles, taking Aston Villa in order to prove something to myself. While I may consider taking them on the moneyline against Wolverhampton, I'll instead turn to a simpler bet. Under 2.5 goals is -165, which makes 'No' on both teams to score at -110 almost a steal.
Wolves won't have Raul Jimenez or Ruben Neves, which is an alarming problem for a couple areas . This has all the makings of a 1-0 or 2-0 win to either side. While I like Villa to win, I can't take them as an away favorite in this spot. One side has failed to score in six of the last seven matches for Villa and the same can be said for four of the last five for Wolves. The home side will aim for another clean sheet after letting the Leeds match get away from them before the break and that's reason enough to take this bet.
At the same time Saturday I'm going the opposite way of what everyone will bet for this Brighton and Norwich match. Both teams struggle to score and the prior meeting finished scoreless, but that was back in October. With just nine matches to go, Norwich can't afford to play for draws as they sit in last by four points. Despite losing their last four, they've scored in all of them, somehow, someway. The same can't be said for Brighton, who haven't scored in five of their last six, but a matchup against the worst defense in the league and a team that needs to push should produce at least one goal. I think over 2.5 goals (+100) is in play, but those odds are almost the same as 'Yes' on both teams to score at -110 (I think a 1-1 result is in play). The numbers and prior result don't suggest goals, but that's why I'm going the opposite way. Norwich will not play for another scoreless draw and that's why I think goals will happen.
Outside of a random loss to Leeds when they were reeling, West Ham have been good at home, including a massive Europa League victory against Sevilla. They've held a clean sheet in five of their last eight at home, winning six of them. Everton have been the opposite away from home, losing their last five, including a 2-1 result at Norwich and losing a combined 9-0 in their last two (FA Cup included).
I was originally on the under, but Everton's back line has me scared, so I'll turn to West Ham's strength at home, their defense. It's another bet with close to even odds as 'No' on both teams to score is -105. West Ham to win in a shutout is probably the move, but I don't feel confident enough in that bet after the Toffees stole a 1-0 win against Newcastle last league match.
I don't usually combine prior bets, but there's a clear parlay of favorites this week, something I haven't done in a while. If you throw together Chelsea -310, Man City -475 and Liverpool -900, it's -130 odds on a parlay. That's good enough for me. If you want a tad better odds, throwing in Tottenham -600 on a draw no bet against Newcastle is worth a look. However, that's a matchup which could end 1-0 for Newcastle, so I'm not including it in mine.
