This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Sooner or later, the trend of low-scoring matches would be broken and that came in Gameweek 11. Despite there being just nine games, 30 goals were scored, which is equal to or as many goals scored in each of the prior six gameweeks. Crystal Palace scored five goals because West Brom had a player sent off in the first half. Otherwise, every match had at least two goals, which was oddly the first time that's happened this season.
The main reason for the goals is that all of the big teams came through and secured three points. Man City, Man United, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool combined for 14 goals, something that isn't too surprising. If you remove Palace's performance and a goal or two from the top teams, it was a fairly average week. Mainly, I'm saying don't overreact to the goal production. Crystal Palace could easily follow up their five-goal performance with a 1-0 loss against Tottenham; just because there were more goals last week doesn't make it a trend.
LAST GAMEWEEK
It's become clear that I should bet on everything I lay out in this article because when I pick and choose, that sometimes doesn't work out. I went 1-3 in my straight-up plays and decided not to take the Chelsea-Leeds over or one team not to score between Tottenham and Arsenal, despite touting both bets. As for everything I picked, I'm most proud of Fulham +2.5 hitting, though it wasn't easy. I lost the Leicester City under after Jamie Vardy's late goal and Wolves struggled using a four-man back line against Liverpool. Yet again, I hit a parlay and those stand at 6-5 for the season, all of them at plus odds.
THE WEEK AHEAD
For those playing in UEFA, midweek matches are nothing new, but next week will be the first midweek gameweek for the Premier League. As it gets closer to the end of the year, that will only continue, meaning lineups could differ for Gameweek 14, something to monitor.
The biggest outlier in the odds once again falls to Manchester City, who are being rated like they're 10 points ahead of everyone else in the table. Sure, they've looked better in recent contests, but beating Fulham and Burnley aren't everything. In the same fixture last March, Man City had similar odds to win despite a stadium full of fans and United failing to win four of their prior six matches. The Red Devils lost the possession battle, but they had more shots on goal and won 2-0. When they met in December, it was a similar story in a 2-1 win.
Now, United are playing better and you can get them at +335 to win or +108 to win or draw. I'm not sold on City as a powerhouse and think you can get decent odds on United, similar to Liverpool and Fulham in prior weeks.
I think Aston Villa are a good side to back at Wolves after they got an extra week of rest because of postponement. Throw in Wolverhampton's struggles without Raul Jimenez and it makes sense to grab Villa -157 to win or draw. Villa have arguably been the better team of the two this season and will be hungry to rebound following their loss a couple weeks ago. West Ham are in a similar situation at Leeds, but the absence of Michail Antonio has me staying away.
While I don't like betting Crystal Palace matches, I keep coming back to them. Tottenham are -141 to win, which are smaller odds when these teams met in July in the same spot (a 1-1 draw). That prior result has me somewhat worried, but prior to their win against West Brom, Palace lost back-to-back matches against Newcastle and Burnley. I think this is a great spot for another Tottenham clean sheet and you can get Palace under 0.5 goals at +150.
I think the Arsenal v. Burnley match is going to be ugly. Arsenal are having trouble scoring and Burnley tend to sit back and allow teams to unleash from distance. That points to Arsenal struggling to capitalize again and possibly a scoreless draw. Instead of taking both teams not to score at -125, you can get under 2.5 goals at -114.
In the opposite mold, it feels too easy to take over 2.5 goals (-107) between Leicester City and Brighton. Leicester have been a bit all over this season in terms of performances, but there have been at least three goals scored in eight of their 11 league matches. It's a similar case for Brighton, as there have only been three scoreless sides out of 20 in their 10 matches this season. Two of those came in the scoreless draw against Burnley. You can take both sides to score at -137, but unless you think it'll finish 1-1, it makes more sense to go over 2.5. Each team likes to attack and neither back line has performed well, so it only makes sense that there will be goals. For -108 odds, you can get Jamie Vardy to hit the back of the net.
I don't want to make official plays for Gameweek 13 because that's a week away, but there are things to monitor. Chelsea at -125 to beat Wolverhampton seems too good to pass up given how Wolves performed against Liverpool. The same goes for Southampton -114 to win or draw against Arsenal, assuming Danny Ings is back in the starting XI. Unless Arsenal turn things around in the next week, I don't think they should be a massive favorite against Southampton. If you want to double up on a Palace fade, you can get West Ham to beat them right now at +100.
THE BETS
Manchester United to win or draw +108
Arsenal/Burnley under 2.5 goals -114
Leicester City/Brighton over 2.5 goals -107
Parlay: Aston Villa win or draw (-157), Leeds/West Ham over 1.5 goals (-530), Everton/Chelsea over 1.5 goals (-560), Tottenham win or draw (-500) = +176
