This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 98 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 98 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Clayton Carpenter (7-0-0) v. Lucas Rocha (17-1-0)
Clayton Carpenter - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Lucas Rocha - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Rocha is making his debut after a successful Contender Series fight that he won by knockout. His resume is solid, and he finishes the majority of his fights. However, Carpenter is likely the toughest fight he has had. Carpenter is a well-rounded fighter who should have an edge everywhere the fight goes. I expect him to avoid making mistakes and end this fight early, making him a solid play for GPP.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Carpenter
Dan Argueta (9-2-0) v. Cody Haddon (7-1-0)
Dan Argueta - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Cody Haddon - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Argueta is a wild card. He lost his debut, then won, then had back-to-back no-contests and another loss. He has moments in all his fights but cannot seem to finish. Haddon is another Contender Series fighter making his debut after an early first-round finish victory. This fight will likely be close, but I expect Haddon to ultimately finish this in the later rounds.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Haddon
Niko Price (16-7-0) v. Themba Gorimbo (13-4-0)
Niko Price - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
Themba Gorimbo - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Price looked revitalized and had possibly his best fight in years last time out. Conversely, Gorimbo ran his win streak to three with another dominant victory in his last fight. The odds are nearly 3-1 in favor of Gorimbo, which seems too high. Price is his toughest competition to date, and he looked excellent in his most recent fight. The winner of this fight should score well for DFS, and it would be wise to have both sides in GPP contests. I expect the volume of Price to be the difference.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Price
Jonathan Pearce (14-6-0) v. Pat Sabatini (18-5-0)
Jonathan Pearce - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Pat Sabatini - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a fun fight to watch. Both guys have similar overall fight styles, but Pearce will have the edge in striking and Sabatini will in grappling. They both score well in DFS in wins, so getting pieces of each for GPP is a solid game plan. However, I expect Pearce to control most of the fight and win a decision.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Pearce
C.J. Vergara (12-5-1) v. Ramazan Temirov (17-2-0)
C.J. Vergara - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Ramazan Temirov - Height: 5'5" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: These guys are solid strikers who throw good volume. The difference in this fight will come from Temirov's power. Vergara has displayed a chin of steel in his UFC tenure, so I am unsure about him getting finished. I do not see a high score coming out of this fight without a finish. However, Temirov hits hard and will have several opportunities to end this early.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Temirov
Chidi Njokuani (23-10-0) v. Jared Gooden (23-9-0)
Chidi Njokuani - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 23 wins
Jared Gooden - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Njokuani got back in the win column with a split-decision win last time out, while Gooden did the same with a second-round submission. Njokuani will look to keep this fight at range using his reach advantage, but that will likely be his only advantage in this fight. Gooden will have the edge in power and wrestling. I expect him to find success with striking and with his ground game, potentially finishing this fight early. He is one of the best value plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Gooden
Josh Fremd (11-6-0) v. Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0)
Josh Fremd - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Abdul Razak Alhassan - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is Alhassan's fight to lose. He will have a massive edge on the feet and should end this fight early. However, if Fremd can succeed with takedowns, he could keep Alhassan on the mat for long periods. That said, it is more likely that Alhassan knocks him out and is one of the better plays of the slate.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Alhassan
Daniel Rodriguez (17-5-0) v. Alex Morono (24-10-0)
Daniel Rodriguez - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Alex Morono - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: Rodriguez is coming in off three straight losses, although he put on an excellent striking display in his most recent loss. Morono is also coming in off a loss and has alternated wins and losses over his last six fights. This fight will come down to volume and who is more active. If Rodriguez throws like he did last time, he should raise his hand in this one. I do not expect either fighter to score a knockout, so a lower DFS score can be expected.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Rodriguez
Cory McKenna (8-3-0) v. Julia Polastri (12-4-0)
Cory McKenna - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 58" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
Julia Polastri - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Unless McKenna solves her deficiencies on the mat, she will lose again. I expect Polastri to be better everywhere, particularly on the mat, and an early submission would not be surprising. If she ends this fight early, Polastri could make an excellent contrarian play for DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Polastri
Grant Dawson (21-2-1) v. Rafa Garcia (16-3-0)
Grant Dawson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins
Rafa Garcia - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Garcia has been solid over his last five fights, winning four with one finish. He had been dominating on the mat for most fights but showed off improved striking last time out. However, he is running into a buzzsaw. Dawson has fought much better competition and should have no problem controlling this fight. I expect a typical Dawson fight: takedown, control, takedown, control.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Dawson
Brad Tavares (20-9-0) v. Jun Yong Park (17-6-0)
Brad Tavares - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 20 wins
Jun Yong Park - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Both of these men are UFC vets are coming in fresh off of losses. They offer similar striking stats, and if this is a pure striking match, it will yield a low score for DFS. Park will have a considerable edge on the mat, and if he chooses to exploit Tavares's lacking takedown defense, he could put up a solid DFS score.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Park
Brandon Royval (16-7-0) v. Tatsuro Taira (16-0-0)
Brandon Royval - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
Tatsuro Taira - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Royval is tenacious and has no quit in him. His most recent win was highly impressive, and that same look could give Taira fits. Taira continued his rise through the UFC ranks with his sixth consecutive win and now draws his toughest task to date. Both guys will have their shots throughout the fight, but I expect Taira to continue his dominance. His ground game should be a challenge for Royval, and I would not be surprised to see him win by submission.
UFC Vegas 98 Pick: Taira
Looking to give a new sportsbook a try? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
For bettors who prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
