This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 93 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 93 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-11-0) v. Melquizael Costa (20-7-0)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 29 finishes in 39 wins
Melquizael Costa - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: With his superior skills and experience, Nuerdanbieke is expected to dominate the fight. Costa's best chance of winning is a quick finish, but it's unlikely. Nuerdanbieke's early control and dominance make him a strong contender for all DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Nuerdanbieke
Julia Polastri (12-3-0) v. Josefine Knutsson (7-0-0)
Julia Polastri - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Josefine Knutsson - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 60" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 1 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: In the interest of fairness, it's important to note that this fight could be closer than anticipated. Polastri, fresh from the Contender Series, brings a wealth of experience from other promotions. Despite her limited fight record, Knutsson has shown promise with her undefeated UFC debut. This bout will serve as a true test for both fighters. Ultimately, Knutsson's technical striking will secure her the win, albeit by a narrow margin.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Knutsson
Jeka Saragih (14-3-0) v. Westin Wilson (16-9-0)
Jeka Saragih - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Westin Wilson - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Unless Wilson comes in with a different game plan, he will likely lose his third consecutive UFC fight. Saragih has shown an explosive game and will likely end this early. However, as there are 29 finishes between the two, it would be wise to have some shares of Wilson if he has figured something out.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Saragih
Carli Judice (3-1-0) v. Gabriella Fernandes (8-3-0)
Carli Judice - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 3 wins
Gabriella Fernandes - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Fernandes has looked like a fraud since entering the UFC, convincingly losing consecutive fights. Judice is making her debut after a loss on the Contender Series. She did look good in that fight and will surely have the edge in striking. I expect her to avoid any takedowns attempted by Fernandes and dominate striking to an upset victory.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Judice
Garrett Armfield (10-3-0) v. Brady Hiestand (7-2-0)
Garrett Armfield - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Brady Hiestand - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Hiestand's best chance is to get this down to the mat right away, where he could find some success. However, Armfield has shown a solid get-up game and will surely dominate on the feet. Holding an opponent on the mat has been counting for less and less this year, so the pick is definitely Armfield for all contests.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Armfield
Nate Maness (15-3-0) v. Jimmy Flick (17-7-0)
Nate Maness - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Jimmy Flick - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a good fight to target for GPP contests. Maness is a large favorite and is most likely to win by early knockout, as Flick has been knocked out six times in seven losses. However, Flick is as dangerous as they come on the mat and only needs a single takedown to work into a submission. Maness is the safer pick, but it would be wise to have shares of Flick in GPP.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Maness
Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2-0) v. Joshua Van (10-1-0)
Tagir Ulanbekov - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Joshua Van - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Van has proved to be a phenomenal prospect with a lot of talent. He strikes well and has a solid ground game. However, Ulanbekov is a massive step up and will likely prove to be too much for Van, at least on the mat. If Van can keep this upright, I can see him winning a point decision.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Ulanbekov
Adam Fugitt (9-4-0) v. Josh Quinlan (6-2-0)
Adam Fugitt - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Josh Quinlan - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Quinlan won his debut against a nobody and then struggled in back-to-back fights, losing one by decision and the next by knockout. Both fighters he lost to had a reach advantage of 5" and 7", and now he gets Fugitt, who also has a 5" reach advantage. Unless Quinlan has figured that out, he will lose again in this one. Fugitt can strike and has a solid ground game. He is one of my favorite dog plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Fugitt
Asu Almabaev (19-2-0) v. Jose Johnson (16-8-0)
Asu Almabaev - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 19 wins
Jose Johnson - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Johnson earned his first UFC win in his last fight but draws a buzzsaw in Almabaev in this one. Almabaev will have the edge everywhere, and I will not be surprised to see him hand Johnson his fifth career submission loss. He is one of the best plays on the slate for all contests, particularly cash.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Almabaev
Miles Johns (14-2-0) v. Douglas Silva De Andrade (29-5-0)
Miles Johns - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 14 wins
Douglas Silva De Andrade - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 29 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a slower-paced decision fight. Johns generally fights defensively with accurate technical striking. He is eight years younger than Silva and will have a considerable speed edge. Silva will have the edge in power, but he is now 38 and surely on the decline. Unless there is a finish in the first two rounds, this fight likely does not score well for DFS.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Johns
Lucas Almeida (14-3-0) v. Timmy Cuamba (8-2-0)
Lucas Almeida - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
Timmy Cuamba - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Cuamba lost his UFC debut in a tightly contested fight. He is a solid prospect with a well-rounded skill set, but I must disagree with the odds in this fight. Cuamba is currently a slight favorite against Almeida, who has lost two consecutive fights in the UFC but against top competition. I would have this closer to a pick 'em, if not having Almeida as the favorite altogether. Almeida has fought better competition and has a solid overall game himself. He is likely the better striker in this matchup, and I expect that to be the difference.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Almeida
Ikram Aliskerov (15-1-0) v. Antonio Trocoli (12-3-0)
Ikram Aliskerov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
Antonio Trocoli - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 82" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a terrible matchup for Trocoli. The only thing going for him is his size advantage, which could cause issues for Aliskerov early. Once Aliskerov solves him, I expect him to work quickly and end this fight early. He is expensive for DFS, but any finish in the first two rounds should pay dividends.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Aliskerov
Alex Perez (25-8-0) v. Tatsuro Taira (15-0-0)
Alex Perez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 25 wins
Tatsuro Taira - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an exciting fight that I feel ends with an early finish. Perez flashed considerable power in his last fight to go with his excellent ground game. However, Taira should excel in this fight with his straight jabs and slightly better ground game. Perez tends to throw wider hooks, and while he can load up doing it, Taira's fast hands down the middle will create several problems for him. I expect Taira to get this done early.
UFC Vegas 93 Pick: Taira
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
