This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 92 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 92 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Emily Ducote (13-8-0) v. Vaness Demopoulos (9-2-0)
Emily Ducote - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
Vanessa Demopoulos - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 59" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight comes down to whether or not Demopoulos can find success with takedowns. However, I find it unlikely, as Ducote currently sports elite takedown defense with a success rate north of 90 percent. That said, I do not see enough happening in this fight for it to score well for DFS purposes. Ducote, by a lower-scoring decision, is the pick.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Ducote
Alateng Heili (16-9-2) v. Kleydson Rodrigues (8-3-0)
Heili Alateng - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 16 wins
Kleydson Rodrigues - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is where we see if Rodrigues is a fraud. Heili is a good low-level opponent who is solid everywhere but not amazing. Rodrigues has been up and down with flashes of brilliance. I expect him to show more of that and will not be surprised to see him finish this early. This sight is more GPP than cash, but if Rodrigues ends this early, it will be with a solid score.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Rodrigues
Piera Rodriguez (9-1-0) v. Ariane Carnelossi (14-3-0)
Piera Rodriguez - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Ariane Carnelossi - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Carnelossi is always live for a knockout in the first round. After that, she tends to gas out and struggle. Rodriguez will need to be careful through the first and would be wise to take this to the mat. I expect her to enact a safe game plan and win by decision. However, I would not expect a high score from this fight unless it's a first-round finish by either fighter.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Rodriguez
Abus Magomedov (25-6-1) v. Warlley Alves (14-7-0)
Abus Magomedov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 25 wins
Warlley Alves - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight will likely finish early, making it an excellent DFS target. While Alves still has power, he has been knocked out badly in two of his last three and arguably gets a better opponent in this one. Magomedov and his six-inch reach advantage is one of my favorite plays on the slate for all contests. I expect him to end this early and score well enough for the optimal lineup.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Magomedov
Tamires Vidal (7-2-0) v. Melissa Gatto (8-2-2)
Tamires Vidal - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
Melissa Gatto - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Even on short notice, I expect Gatto to be better everywhere and make quick work of Vidal. The fight might be close on the feet for a time, but Gatto is far better technically and has the ground game to make life miserable for Vidal.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Gatto
Oumar Sy (9-0-0) v. Tuco Tokkos (10-3-0)
Oumar Sy - Height: 6'4" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Tuco Tokkos - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are making their UFC debuts. Tokkos has a three-fight winning streak, while Sy has yet to lose in nine fights. Both guys are dangerous, but I expect Sy to have a considerable strength and speed advantage. This should be an exciting fight that likely ends early, making it a solid fight to target for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Sy
Tom Nolan (6-1-0) v. Victor Martinez (13-5-0)
Tom Nolan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
Victor Martinez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: These guys got knocked out in their UFC debuts, so it is difficult to predict anything here. It should be a boxing match with some heavy knees and elbows. I expect someone to get knocked out and score well for DFS. Nolan has a considerable size advantage and will be my pick to get his hand raised.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Nolan
Angela Hill (16-13-0) v. Luana Pinheiro (11-2-0)
Angela Hill - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 16 wins
Luana Pinheiro - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Hill is now 39, and at some point, time is going to catch up with her. In her last fight, she derailed a hype train with a dominant display on the mat. On the other hand, Pinheiro suffered her first UFC defeat, getting knocked out for the first time ever. I expect this to play out closely, but for youth to beat out the vet. This could be a sneaky play for DFS if strikes and takedowns are aplenty.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Pinheiro
Adrian Yanez (16-5-0) v. Vinicius Salvador (14-6-0)
Adrian Yanez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
Vinicius Salvador - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Yanez was on the road to a top contender but has since been knocked out in back-to-back fights. Salvador has yet to get things going in the UFC, losing both of his fights by decision. For me, this is a bit of a no-brainer. Yanez has fought much better competition, and as long as he is not suffering long-term effects from the knockouts, he should get back on track here. His technical striking should be too much and too frustrating for Salvador in a boxing match. This fight must end within the first two rounds to pay off in DFS.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Yanez
Ramiz Brahimaj (10-4-0) v. Themba Gorimbo (12-4-0)
Ramiz Brahimaj - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Themba Gorimbo - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a good test for Brahimaj. Though I believe him to be the better grappler of these two, Gorimbo is much longer, which creates many issues for heavy grapplers. He has not fought in over two years, which is always a concern. Gorimbo has shown off improved striking, which will likely be the difference in this fight. I expect someone to get finished early, and the majority of people will expect it to come from Gorimbo.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Gorimbo
Khaos Williams (14-3-0) v. Carlston Harris (19-5-0)
Khaos Williams - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Carlston Harris - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a considerable step up for Harris, who tends to rely on a solid ground game over his striking. If he cannot get this to the mat, he likely loses. Williams is a sniper with a lot of power and excellent takedown defense. I expect this to play out on the feet but do not expect a knockout. Williams is the pick, but a lower-scoring decision is likely.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Williams
Edson Barboza (24-11-0) v. Lerone Murphy (13-0-1)
Edson Barboza - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 24 wins
Lerone Murphy - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Barboza has looked so good over his last two fights that I give Murphy nearly no chance to win this fight. Both guys are primarily strikers, and while Murphy has solid striking, Barboza's is so much better, particularly his kicks. I expect Barboza to have a field day on the feet and mix in takedowns as needed. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate and can be played everywhere.
UFC Vegas 92 Pick: Barboza
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
