Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Vegas 111
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 111 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 310-134-1 ~ Dog Picks 47-34-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Christian Leroy Duncan +160
Bet of the Week Record: 22-14-1 +1828
DFS Lock of the Week: Gabriel Bonfim - 27-7
Fanduel Captain: Bonfim/Medic
Gabriel Bonfim (18-1-0) v. Randy Brown (20-6-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-1 (3 KO/TKO, 13 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Elite grappler with lightning-fast transitions and one of the slickest guillotines in the division
- Strong timing on entries and relentless top pressure once the fight hits the mat
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-6 (8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Long, rangy striker with clean boxing, solid defensive instincts, and underrated grappling
- Struggles when forced to fight off his back or defend sustained takedown sequences
DFS Perspective: Bonfim is the preferred DFS play. His submission upside and control time make him a top-tier scorer, especially given Brown's historical issues against persistent grapplers. Brown's reach and striking offer minor GPP leverage, but Bonfim's path is clear: close the distance, drag it down, and finish. Expect a dominant grappling performance and strong DFS return.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Bonfim
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Matt Schnell (17-9-0) v. Joseph Morales (13-2-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-9 (2 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 5 decisions, 1 DQ)
- Fast, technical striker with excellent hand speed and a dangerous submission arsenal
- Skilled in scrambles but often reckless defensively, leaving openings for counters or big shots
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 13-2 (2 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Composed, well-rounded grappler who mixes clean boxing combinations with strong positional control
- Durable and calculated, capable of neutralizing aggressive opponents through patience and pressure
DFS Perspective: Schnell's speed and finishing instincts make him an exciting GPP play, but Morales' durability and control game give him the edge for consistency. Schnell can find a finish early if he overwhelms Morales in exchanges, yet Morales' composure and ability to grind out rounds make him the preferred DFS side for balance. Expect Morales to weather the early storm and take over late through grappling and pressure.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Morales
Muslim Salikhov (22-5-0) v. Uros Medic (11-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-5 (14 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Veteran Sanda striker with elite counter timing and creative spinning attacks
- Still dangerous early but slowing with age and susceptible to high-paced pressure
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-3 (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Explosive, aggressive striker with knockout power in both hands and sharp combinations
- Continues to evolve technically, improving shot selection and cage control each outing
DFS Perspective: Medic is the preferred DFS play. His speed, pressure and power should overwhelm Salikhov before the veteran finds his rhythm. Salikhov is live for a flash KO, but Medic's volume and athleticism make him a strong favorite to finish early. Expect a violent, high-scoring fight with Medic holding both the higher floor and ceiling in DFS contests.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Medic
Ismael Bonfim (20-5-0) v. Chris Padilla (16-6-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-5 (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Dynamic, high-paced striker with elite footwork and clean boxing combinations
- Excellent defensive awareness and takedown defense; thrives when dictating tempo
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-6 (8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 3 decision)
- Aggressive grappler who mixes wild striking entries into clinches and scrambles
- Durable and scrappy but lacks the technical polish to hang at Bonfim's striking range
DFS Perspective: Bonfim is the preferred DFS play. His speed, precision and ability to control range should allow him to pick Padilla apart while avoiding prolonged grappling exchanges. Padilla's toughness gives him limited GPP appeal if he can force chaos, but Bonfim's composure and striking volume make him a high-floor, high-ceiling DFS option with strong finish potential.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Bonfim
Ricky Simon (22-6-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (20-5-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-6 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 11 decisions)
- Relentless wrestler with excellent chain-takedowns and suffocating top pressure
- Durable, high-pace grinder who weaponizes cardio and control time to break opponents down
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-5 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Technical striker with crisp counters, strong defensive wrestling, and sharp timing
- Dangerous in the pocket but has slowed slightly with age and extended wear
DFS Perspective: Simon is the preferred DFS side due to his takedown volume and control. Barcelos' striking remains sharp, but Simón's pace and wrestling base should dictate the fight's rhythm. Expect consistent scoring through effective clinch control, top time, and ground-and-pound techniques. Barcelos offers sneaky GPP upside if he can stuff early shots and land counters, but Simón's style and motor make him the safer, higher-floor DFS play.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Simon
Marco Tulio (14-1-0) v. Christian Leroy Duncan (12-2-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-1 (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Well-rounded striker with tight boxing and measured shot selection
- Excellent composure under pressure; strong defensive grappling and smart distance management
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 12-2 (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decisions)
- Dynamic and unpredictable striker who blends feints, angles, and spinning attacks
- Explosive but can be reckless defensively, leaving openings for clean counters
DFS Perspective: Duncan is the preferred DFS play due to his high finishing upside and creative offense. Tulio's durability and structure make him live for a decision if he can neutralize Duncan's chaos, but Duncan's volume and athleticism give him a clear ceiling edge. Expect an action-heavy striking battle where Duncan's unorthodox offense and power create the more valuable DFS path.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Duncan
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Jamall Emmers (21-8-0) v. Hyder Amil (11-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-8 (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Technical, composed striker with a strong jab and solid takedown defense
- Experienced and well-rounded, but can be drawn into exchanges where he's hittable
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 11-1 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Explosive, forward-pressing striker who loves to crash the pocket and work short combinations
- Strong chin, fast hands, and underrated dirty boxing inside make him dangerous at close range
DFS Perspective: Amil is the preferred DFS play. His speed, pressure and finishing power give him multiple scoring paths, particularly if he can consistently force Emmers to fight off his back foot. Emmers' technical polish makes him a viable contrarian GPP option, but Amil's aggression and pocket boxing should dictate the exchanges. Expect a fast-paced fight where Amil's volume and pressure lead to a strong DFS ceiling.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Amil
Mayra Bueno Silva (10-5-1) v. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (9-1-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-5-1 (1 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Aggressive grappler with strong clinch control and a dangerous submission arsenal
- Physically powerful and relentless once on top; thrives when she can dictate grappling exchanges
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-1 (3 KO/TKO, 6 decisions)
- Tall, rangy striker with excellent distance management and clean technical boxing
- Still developing her defensive wrestling and ground escapes; most effective in kickboxing range
DFS Perspective: Bueno Silva is the preferred DFS play and a strong underdog target. Her pressure, grappling and submission skills should allow her to close distance and neutralize Cavalcanti's range striking. Cavalcanti offers striking-based volume for GPPs, but Silva's physicality and top game provide more consistent scoring opportunities. I expect Bueno Silva to impose her wrestling, control the mat exchanges and potentially lock up a finish.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Silva
Josh Hokit (6-0-0) v. Max Gimenis (6-1-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Former collegiate wrestler with explosive power and strong top control
- Aggressive early starter who throws heavy hooks and transitions quickly into ground-and-pound
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-1 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision)
- Heavy-handed striker who thrives in brawls and dirty boxing exchanges
- Can be slowed by grappling pressure and struggles to defend persistent takedown attempts
DFS Perspective: Hokit is the preferred DFS play. His wrestling base and knockout power give him multiple paths to an early finish, while Gimenis' defensive gaps on the mat make him vulnerable if the fight hits the ground. Gimenis carries some GPP appeal as a live dog in a pure striking brawl, but Hokit's athleticism and early aggression make him a strong pick for an early finish and high DFS ceiling.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Hokit
Tecia Pennington (15-7-0) v. Denise Gomes (11-3-0)
- Height: 5'1" – Reach: 60" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-7 (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 13 decisions)
- Veteran technician with crisp footwork, fast combinations, and excellent cage awareness
- Prefers to point-fight at range and avoid extended grappling or brawling exchanges
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-3 (7 KO/TKO, 4 decisions)
- Explosive, compact striker who brings aggression and heavy hooks in close
- Improving fight IQ but still relies heavily on forward pressure and brawling pace
DFS Perspective: This is likely a low-output, close decision, which is not ideal for DFS scoring. Pennington's experience and movement may allow her to edge rounds on volume and control, while Gomes' power offers limited GPP upside if she lands something clean. Overall, this fight projects as a low-paced, tactical affair better suited for fading in DFS builds.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Pennington
Miles Johns (15-4-0) v. Daniel Marcos (17-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-4 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Compact, disciplined striker with strong wrestling fundamentals and solid takedown defense
- Patient and methodical, relying on counterpunching and positional control rather than volume
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-1 (8 KO/TKO, 9 decisions)
- Fluid, high-volume striker with slick combinations and excellent distance management
- Fights behind sharp fundamentals, using pace and precision to overwhelm slower opponents
DFS Perspective: Marcos is the preferred DFS side. His output, movement and accuracy should dictate the fight's tempo, while Johns' low pace limits his scoring potential outside of a knockout or control-heavy win. Marcos' volume, striking and steady pressure make him a strong mid-range DFS option with solid floor and GPP upside. Expect a competitive fight, but Marcos' consistency and activity edge should earn him the nod.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Marcos
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
